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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
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Just now, Chris78 said:

Let's just make this easy and go 3 for 3 lol. 

1 to 3 on Friday

6 to 12 on Monday.

6 to 12 on Wednesday. 

Spring can start the following weekend with temps in the 60's lol.

hell even I would be on board for that.  After the time change it doesn't matter to me as much since I have trouble staying up until 10:30 let alone 11:30. 

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

lol our fail scenario in MD is clear...strong enough cutter Saturday so the Monday storm misses just south but amplifies enough to delay the development of the storm Wednesday which gets going late and hooks back in to crush New England.  Snow to the south of us, snow to the north of us...stuck in the middle with bare ground.  

99% chance it happens as you say. Your fail scenarios almost are gold

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15 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

Lookin tasty! Especially for those of us near Charlottesville, and DC points south 

I could post the ggem and say looks great, especially for those of us in MD and Baltimore north. 

This thread will be garbage if everyone cherry picks and posts maps showing snow in their yard with comments like “looks good especially here” with no objective analysis or value added. 

 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I could post the ggem and say looks great, especially for those of us in MD and Baltimore north. 

This thread will be garbage if everyone cherry picks and posts maps showing snow in their yard with comments like “looks good especially here” with no objective analysis or value added. 

 

What are you even talking about!??

I bring up Charlottesville once and you freak out like a child lol. 

Chill

 

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1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Okay...So CHO is in the subforum... and everyone can cherry pick the model that shows the most snow for their backyard.  If you do not have any analysis to based your map on or you still want to argue about your location in the subforum... please take it to the banter thread.

Just look at the data! Most of the euro members point to a central Virginia snowstorm. Even noaa sees that. 

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:

99% chance it happens as you say. Your fail scenarios almost are gold

LOL I am fairly optimistic we will see some snow out of this whole pattern.  I am more iffy on if any of them can become the "big dog" we (you and me) really want at this point.  But I am not saying it won't happen.  My fail scenarios work so often because our climo sucks, and the models have a tendency to over forecast snow for our area in general.  I don't know why...and its not as bad as some make it with perception bias and cherry picking the runs that show a ton of snow and forgetting all the runs that showed no snow... but still in general MOST threats will fail or at least fail to live up to the "hope" for a big storm. 

There is a "win" scenario too.  But I am a little torn right now about how this is trending.  The weekend cutter is trending weaker which is opening the door to the Sunday/Monday wave.  That is trending better across guidance and that wave has some upside and I would not kick a 4-8" storm out of bed or anything... but there is a cap on that imo.  The isnt really much amplification associated with it in the northern stream and there is no ridging out west and its just unlikely that wave becomes a big storm.  And the problem is the more that wave amplifies there is a corresponding degradation of the threat around the 6th and that one was the bigger potential with a PNA ridge out west and the northern stream digging in.  That could become a big storm, but its likely to get squashed if the wave Monday amplifies.  I just don't see enough space right now for both.  People can take that for what it is worth, the trends with the Sunday/Monday storm right now are good.  This is not meant to be a deb post.  That is trending towards being a pretty good storm in our area.  But it might cost us the shot at a big dog later next week.  Some would gladly make that trade...others would not.  And in the end for me it depends how much snow the Sunday/Monday storm ends up.  If I can get 6" plus out of it...I would give up the shot at a big storm later.  But if I get another 3-4" fringe event while south of me gets more and then the next storm gets squashed because of it....that would be a pretty crappy way to end the season imo.  

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