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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


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1 hour ago, Ji said:

interesting...I95 which has been a disaster this season N of Balt has the last laugh

 

image.png.ab4c40d4ca22c3e60518500d4ad0cc3b.png

That would be a fitting end... I have actually been fringed all year and the euro pretty much fringes me again twice then winter is over.  I would end up close to my median snowfall but get there with a crap ton of fringes and unsatisfying low end events.  lol

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48 minutes ago, frd said:

@psuhoffman sorry, psu , bad news I think the Euro and overall pattern will prevent snow in the DC  area and up to Boston later this week and in March too, according to this forecaster.below. 

Hmm.....the name  is familiar . I simply can't place it.  

 

For the people hyping next week: +NAO’s don’t normally lead to big DC-BOS snowstorms. Just saying

 

4 minutes ago, frd said:


Yeah,  very true M, she is annoying.  What you said is spot on ! 

Always spouts negative remarks without value on most weather feeds. 

There was a reason to my pasting blast. psu knows her well. LOL   

She is a troll... I tried to engage her on some of her comments earlier in the winter and she didn't seem to understand the points I was making or simply wanted to ignore what didn't fit her narrative.  

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Looking at the EPS it is really starting to dig the NS down into the trough for our day 8/9 storm. The look it is showing at this point is probably indicative that it is starting to see a closed low embedded within the trough. Also seeing a little better ridging in the west as well. Surface low signal is also coming in a little stronger. Though we may have seen a slight step back in the snow means through this period IMO we actually saw improvements at 500's and the surface.

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking at the EPS it is really starting to dig the NS down into the trough for our day 8/9 storm. The look it is showing at this point is probably indicative that it is starting to see a closed low embedded within the trough. Also seeing a little better ridging in the west as well. Surface low signal is also coming in a little stronger. Though we may have seen a slight step back in the snow means through this period IMO we actually saw improvements at 500's and the surface.

EPS evolution looks solid to me.  GEFS has the same general idea but much more progressive and doesn't dig the northern stream like the EPS.

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8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking at the EPS it is really starting to dig the NS down into the trough for our day 8/9 storm. The look it is showing at this point is probably indicative that it is starting to see a closed low embedded within the trough. Also seeing a little better ridging in the west as well. Surface low signal is also coming in a little stronger. Though we may have seen a slight step back in the snow means through this period IMO we actually saw improvements at 500's and the surface.

Exactly like you said showme, with the changes today, I wonder if we see the trend towards a deep Eastern cyclone at a lower lattitude over the next 72 hours.  

Very uncomfortable with any guesses. I think most forecasters are going to wait the way this winter has been. 

I mean the huge mean up North could shift down over us in the next few days.  I think it is a foot up there. 

Seems like a possible +PNA spike. So many moving parts but at least it is not far away in time.     

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1 hour ago, frd said:

@psuhoffman sorry, psu , bad news I think the Euro and overall pattern will prevent snow in the DC  area and up to Boston later this week and in March too, according to this forecaster.below. 

Hmm.....the name  is familiar . I simply can't place it.  

 

For the people hyping next week: +NAO’s don’t normally lead to big DC-BOS snowstorms. Just saying

She can take this blocking and sit on it...

eps_z500a_nh_11.thumb.png.7e0b0e4540b6d3a7a1773000afb05269.png

And in case she argues....but by next week the blocking is gone...yea but that is typical.  Look at 1996...and NO I AM NOT COMPARING THESE 2 STORMS...this is just a general pattern example NOT a storm comp.

This is the look for about a week before that storm

compday.weN3umZx18.gif.2917443e8f1aaeda5a5d0fb925208c90.gif

You can clearly see the blocking that helped to set that threat up...note also the blocking is centered in the EPO region into north central Canada...sort of similar to this block.  

By the day before the storm look up top.  

storm2.gif.08d581ead2fe2af12185a250df3c0d1e.gif

The blocking has broken down and is long gone by the time that storm actually happened.  But there are lower heights to our northeast...created by that blocking, and that is actually what is important.  The blocking up top is just a means to an end...the end that we want is to force the northern stream to dig into the CONUS and to get lower heights (50/50) low to our northeast to help to hold cold into the northeast.  Once we get that and set up the threat the blocking breaking down isn't that big a deal.  A lot of our storms come AFTER the blocking breaks.  

This isn't just a pet peeve with her, I am tired of the bad analysis going around on twitter all the time.  Our big snowstorms are actually most correlated AFTER -nao pulses NOT during them.  

 

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10 minutes ago, frd said:

Exactly like you said showme, with the changes today, I wonder if we see the trend towards a deep Eastern cyclone at a lower lattitude over the next 72 hours.  

Very uncomfortable with any guesses. I think most forecasters are going to wait the way this winter has been. 

I mean the huge mean up North could shift down over us in the next few days.  I think it is a foot up there. 

Seems like a possible +PNA spike. So many moving parts but at least it is not far away in time.     

It is the period of time I thought has showed the most promise/potential for a big storm. Whether it bears fruit or not is another story. EPS continues to move in a positive direction run over run in that regard. As far as the GEFS? Been pretty much out to lunch so far though it does seems as if it may be finally getting a clue the last run or two. But 8/9 days so let's see where it goes.

eta: At least it is now inside of 10 days which should make Ji happy. :D

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27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

The blocking has broken down and is long gone by the time that storm actually happened.  But there are lower heights to our northeast...created by that blocking, and that is actually what is important.  The blocking up top is just a means to an end...the end that we want is to force the northern stream to dig into the CONUS and to get lower heights (50/50) low to our northeast to help to hold cold into the northeast.  Once we get that and set up the threat the blocking breaking down isn't that big a deal.  A lot of our storms come AFTER the blocking breaks.  

 

Strongly agree.

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Just now, HighStakes said:

One thing about march 2014 that I'll never forget was that in the early march storm as the snow was winding down it was 9 degrees in the middle of the day.

That was a really cool storm just based on how cold it was. It was only 3-4" but that PV really meant business.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

That would be a fitting end... I have actually been fringed all year and the euro pretty much fringes me again twice then winter is over.  I would end up close to my median snowfall but get there with a crap ton of fringes and unsatisfying low end events.  lol

My yard needs this ending. Thanks in advance for your sacrifice.

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8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I also think we went below 0 twice that early March which was a first in my lifetime. 

Yes, quite a remarkable month. 

4 inches in early march storm. followed by bitter cold. The cold pressed in and shut off the snow despite solid radar returns over the area. Probably costs us a couple of inches because the cold was so strong.

4 more inches with the mid month storm. Just to my south saw 6-7. Westminster got a solid 6. "Fringed" here lol.

A couple more inches on 3/25 with temps around 30 all day. 

8 inches on 3/30. Manchester jackpot. Only 4 or so in Westminster and hampstead. Snow tv just south of there.

What did you get on 3/30 up your way?

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