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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
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Just now, frd said:

@psuhoffman some on another board are saying the same thing that  caused the NC hit in December will happen again on the Euro.

I am not so sure. The current set up at days 7 to 11 are not to me similiar to last December. If anything you could say a big dog is on the table.   

I think the wave early next week has a good chance of staying south of us though...are you sure they aren't talking about that one?

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Just now, frd said:

@psuhoffman some on another board are saying the same thing that  caused the NC hit in December will happen again on the Euro.

I am not so sure. The current set up at days 7 to 11 are not to me similiar to last December. If anything you could say a big dog is on the table.   

also...what really made that system stay south of us was just bad luck and timing.  You move that lobe that came through new england right ahead of the system out of there 24 hours in either direction and that probably makes it up to the Mason Dixon line at least.  I am not sure how they can be confident in such small scale chaos type things repeating like that from range.  

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's amazing to me..the Euro at 156 has a rather large precip mass moving toward the east coast and the GFS twins have nothing..or it's suppressed down to Cuba.

I think the gfs is lost...really really lost right now.  That said even favoring the Euro progression I think there is a good chance the system around the 4th ends up south of us.  Not for sure but I lean that way.  I think the wave around the 6th is more amplified though.  

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

yes after that 

Do those people either live in NC or in the NYC to Boston snow hole?  Both would be pretty biased...NC for obvious reasons...the NYC area seems to be in complete meltdown and since they really might be too far north...more likely than us....maybe they are just being debs.  But honestly, it could go south...I could see that, but I am not overly worried yet and I can't see how anyone can say something as fluky as what happened in December would repeat from that kind of range with confidence.  They have mad skills if that is so.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Do those people either live in NC or in the NYC to Boston snow hole?  Both would be pretty biased...NC for obvious reasons...the NYC area seems to be in complete meltdown and since they really might be too far north...more likely than us....maybe they are just being debs.  But honestly, it could go south...I could see that, but I am not overly worried yet and I can't see how anyone can say something as fluky as what happened in December would repeat from that kind of range with confidence.  They have mad skills if that is so.  

It is the NYC crew so that explians it a bit 

 

We might be in a better spot 

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@psuhoffman sorry, psu , bad news I think the Euro and overall pattern will prevent snow in the DC  area and up to Boston later this week and in March too, according to this forecaster.below. 

Hmm.....the name  is familiar . I simply can't place it.  

 

For the people hyping next week: +NAO’s don’t normally lead to big DC-BOS snowstorms. Just saying

  • Haha 3
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34 minutes ago, frd said:

and from Paul 

 

ew conversation

 

In other words...they just told her to sit down in the most academic way...lol (seriously though, does she ever offer any other analysis of her own? Seems she just shows up to bash hypers!)

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

In other words...they just told her to sit down in the most academic way...lol (seriously though, does she ever offer any other analysis of her own? Seems she just shows up to bash hypers!)


Yeah,  very true M, she is annoying.  What you said is spot on ! 

Always spouts negative remarks without value on most weather feeds. 

There was a reason to my pasting blast. psu knows her well. LOL   

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