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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
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15 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Gonna go out on a limb and say 12z GEFS took a good step in the right direction for our March 6 threat. Just looking at 500mb charts. 

It did at h5 for sure... at the surface its still suppressed, a lot of NC hits.  Still far enough out that I am not overly concerned with that.  Euro is more amplified with that threat and the GFS is trending that way also.  

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7 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Do you think this look could end up helping suppress the Friday threat enough to turn it into a legit snow producer for us? 

yes... will be close though, there is still a lot of SE ridge to contend with but that look up top is why we are even talking about it and its not 70 degrees this week.  But that blocking up top forces the TPV to rotate down and sets off a chain of events that ends with a huge cold dump into the CONUS and several threats not just the one later this week...after that the weak wave around the 4th and then the chance at a more major amplification along the east coast around the 6th.  All of that is set into motion by that look up to which really is getting going right now.  Finally not some day 15 fantasy nonsense.  

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro is nice at 96 hours.  WTF did this come from?

 

Ninja'd

It has kind of been there on the euro off and on for a while... the GFS has been going hard core cutter though and when the euro kind of took a step that way a couple days ago for a run or two I think many of us assumed that was where it was heading.  It has since trended back and the gfs has also started to deamplify the system but is still too warm.  The euro has killed the gfs a few times this year with temps though so there is reason to believe it might be onto something here.  Besides the fact its just flat out better lol  

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

yes... will be close though, there is still a lot of SE ridge to contend with but that look up top is why we are even talking about it and its not 70 degrees this week.  But that blocking up top forces the TPV to rotate down and sets off a chain of events that ends with a huge cold dump into the CONUS and several threats not just the one later this week...after that the weak wave around the 4th and then the chance at a more major amplification along the east coast around the 6th.  All of that is set into motion by that look up to which really is getting going right now.  Finally not some day 15 fantasy nonsense.  

psu,  you think after the period you mention above,  the tracking declines after say March 12 th ?  

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14 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Kind of feels like last winter. Bad pattern until March.

Last year was a legit BAD pattern until March and then a very long lasting sustained good pattern but a bit too late to reach full potential here.  This year was more a mediocre ok pattern MOST of the winter that we kept expecting to get great and just stayed kinda ehh.  The only time we really had a long lasting shutout pattern to deal with was the second half of December.  But the crazy epic long range looks kept making the kinda only ok reality a letdown. 

I don't think this pattern lasts as long ad last March did...the blocking looks less stable and more transient this time but it looks to set up a 10 day favorable window with possibly as many as 4 threats within that range.    

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

psu,  you think after the period you mention above,  the tracking declines after say March 12 th ?  

I do not think we will be tracking into late March or April this year but I am not sure exactly when it shuts off.  The guidance might be too fast in breaking down the current patter in the long range, like they have been all winter.  The MJO progression would favor a trough in the east until it gets into phase 4 and add in the lag time and that probably isn't until after March 15th or so.  Right now we have the wave Friday...another one early next week...the possible more major system mid week around the 6th...after that I could see one or two more threats before everything breaks down.  If the March 6th system bombs that would create an overrunning threat behind it from the next wave.  Hard to say...but it certainly doesn't look like there is a lack of systems coming across.  There could also be a relax and possibly one more attempt to get the trough into the east before it all breaks down mid month...  but either way once the mjo progresses into warm phases we are likely done for the season and that looks likely the second half of the month.  

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