Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, luckyamaha said:

That Monster EPO your talking about is a major failure for the pattern. tilted the wrong way and a different direction in order to give us a trought in the east. Same pattern we have been stuck in since late Dec early Jan, So will end up with what another 2 days of cooler than average temps. No Significant Blocking going on either in the NAO so i dont see anything more than the same as cutters and sliders for the MA. My intention was not trolling by any means it was to just move on from this winter and look to spring past 1st weekend of March.

You should just stick to the substance-less trolling and not try to pretend you have any idea what you're talking about.  There is nothing wrong with the epo ridge as depicted on those frames I posted.  There is NAO blocking on those panels I posted...the next 5 days...it then breaks down but that often happens BEFORE we get a snow threat.  Additionally we can snow without a -NAO...we have plenty of times this year.  You also kind of imply this year has been nothing but fail when in reality we have had a decent amount of snow, some places are above climo...it might not have been the epic year some wanted but it hasn't been a disaster anywhere in this sub.  Finally..."more of the same" can't apply because this isn't a look we have had really most of the winter. 

Before you can even attempt to understand where we are going lets look at where we have been. 

We had a pretty good pattern in November into Early December and had that prevailed most of the winter we probably would have had that epic season...but lets start with the second half of December.  This was the only truly awful shutout pattern all winter. 

December.png.bacd4bbfe687b378cda355d27b20320c.png

We had the opposite pac pattern as what we want.  Huge +EPO and a ridge south of it...basically amplifying and directing the pacific jet straight across into the CONUS.  PAC PUKE PATTERN.  But nothing like this upcoming pattern.

January

January.png.d2db091e749f77399e0283232025e490.png

The EPO was actually "OK" in January... but the issue there was the WAR.  There you go @Ralph Wiggum you nailed one of the months.  It wasn't a bad look overall... there is enough there to work with and that is why everyone in here saw snow in January and MOST ended up with an above climo month.  The DC area even got lucky with the one really big storm of the season to hit north of Richmond.  But that WAR there, and not just a WAR but a WAR on steroids, right where we would ideally want a 50/50 low, took what would have been a pretty darn good pattern otherwise and made it mediocre and caused all those cutters.  The EPO was NOT the problem. 

February

February.png.f0d6ce74a359cf22e9dc042cd35daff4.png

There was no -EPO in February, that is a north Pac ridge there and you can see what a ridge there does to the jet and why that is bad.  We need the ridge to extend into western North America and be centered east of that look there to do us any good.  We lost the WAR and the Atlantic has been pretty good most of the month but that north PAC ridge just killed us.  Again...the atlantic was good enough to get us SOME snow...but the PAC ridge prevented it from being a good pattern. 

The look coming up doesn't look much like any of the 3 dominant patterns we have had.  2/3 patterns we had weren't that bad...they just never became that good either and we had high expectations...but you talk about it as if we have had no snow and "this will just be more of the same"?  More of what same...many in here are near or above climo snowfall right now.  And the rest of us have all had at least some snow.   So what are you talking about?

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, luckyamaha said:

That Monster EPO your talking about is a major failure for the pattern. tilted the wrong way and a different direction in order to give us a trought in the east. Same pattern we have been stuck in since late Dec early Jan, So will end up with what another 2 days of cooler than average temps. No Significant Blocking going on either in the NAO so i dont see anything more than the same as cutters and sliders for the MA. My intention was not trolling by any means it was to just move on from this winter and look to spring past 1st weekend of March.

Now I will show you why your wrong about that epo look being a problem.  It's not the most perfect pattern I would pick if I could draw up the best way to get snow.  Centering the blocking on the NAO side would be better...but that look has worked before.  It has failed sometimes also...but we can fail in even the  most perfect west based NAO block also...not every good pattern ends up with snow on the ground. 

Here are some examples of similar patterns that did work.  A few BIG storms...and then some more typical but good ones.   No 2 looks are every exactly the same but these are all pretty close.

Probably the best example of March cold and snow came from a very similar look this the one coming up.

1960

1960.gif.bfba69962f1e32605a7d3518cc990e8b.gif

Obviously 1993 is another example that lead to a monster storm

march1993.gif.4708a8f60526b5110ce7975048148e6a.gif

February 2006 a similarly centered EPO ridge worked with with a pretty good storm

feb2006.gif.f2a4d557f4f84722c1be6d39eeab30a8.gif

And there were a couple other years where this type of pattern simply lead to a decent snowfall... 2 moderate snows early in 1996 that amounted to 7.5" in Baltimore, and one 5" storm in 1978.

1996.gif.5a65bc0e2cb06bbd9685d362db6b38d2.gif

1978.gif.dd6281471e5af66685d17c4ad95ff8bb.gif

Finally... you said this look is not good to get a trough in the east... again what are you talking about.  Right now ALL the guidance is dumping a pretty darn cold trough into the east next week.   The bigger issue looks to be suppression right now.  I am not sure if NC ends up with a snowstorm that you can say the problem was "no trough in the east".  Maybe this progression with change and turn into a massive fail but right now EVERYTHING indicates its going to be pretty cold day 8-14.  Maybe we get snow out of it...maybe not...but the epo isn't the problem. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I appreciate your time.

So when people talk about NS or SS shortwaves, they are referring to areas of elevated vorticity?

And phasing is when areas of elevated vorticity from north and south approach each other and merge?

A shortwave is just a smaller scale wave in the jet..a kink so to speak, usually caused by a cold pool in the mid or upper levels.  A lot of times when we are talking about a shortwave its associated with a weaker system like a clipper.

Phasing is actually anytime two systems combine but 99 percent of the time when we talk about phasing it is in reference to the northern stream and southern stream combining.  Often we talk about that when a southern stream system is approaching and we need the northern stream to interact.  Often without the northern stream phasing the stj will get suppressed to our south by the flow of the northern stream.  Phasing is when the northern stream becomes synced up with the southern stream system and you end up with one storm being fed by energy in both streams. 

When we say "vort" we are actually talking about differential positive vorticity advection.  Vorticity is a measure of the rotation of air in a location.  Counterclockwise rotation is positive vorticity.  It's not perfect but the h5 level is often the best to get a quick snapshot of where PVA is greatest.  Vorticity advection into an area at 500 mp is usually associated with and conducive for pressure falls at the surface and an amplifying system. 

 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A shortwave is just a smaller scale wave in the jet..a kink so to speak, usually caused by a cold pool in the mid or upper levels.  A lot of times when we are talking about a shortwave its associated with a weaker system like a clipper.

Phasing is actually anytime two systems combine but 99 percent of the time when we talk about phasing it is in reference to the northern stream and southern stream combining.  Often we talk about that when a southern stream system is approaching and we need the northern stream to interact.  Often without the northern stream phasing the stj will get suppressed to our south by the flow of the northern stream.  Phasing is when the northern stream becomes synced up with the southern stream system and you end up with one storm being fed by energy in both streams. 

When we say "vort" we are actually talking about differential positive vorticity advection.  Vorticity is a measure of the rotation of air in a location.  Counterclockwise rotation is positive vorticity.  It's not perfect but the h5 level is often the best to get a quick snapshot of where PVA is greatest.  Vorticity advection into an area at 500 mp is usually associated with and conducive for pressure falls at the surface and an amplifying system. 

 

Thank you.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS op close enough for now with the day 10 threat.  I haven't totally given up on the weird convoluted setup March 1-2 or the STJ wave March 4 but those both look like a longer shot.  The March 6 threat looks to be the best and times up with the pattern relax better. 

look at the changes from the last run... so I mean no way it could shift north another 100 miles in the next 9 days lol

gfs_z500_mslp_us_fh234_trend.thumb.gif.5df14362ff1dcac0772df08b316a5ca2.gif

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Forget that it was a deb message, anyone has the right to make the case it won’t snow, but he did it in the least substantive way possible. 

Who said this has anything to do with it being a Deb post? Though I am a tired of some weather/model illiterate people doing a drive-by just to drop a Deb turd and adding nothing of value this has very little to do with it. What I mostly take issue with is being told to move along as if he/she is some Sainted Pied Piper leading us morons to the promised land.

It is really pretty simple here. If you think something is a waste of time then don't partake. But what you sure as hell don't do is come in and play at conversion therapy to those that enjoy this hobby. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, luckyamaha said:

Stop being butthurt and move on

Really? This is your response to be an a**? Trying to tell me what to do once again? Talk about a slow learner.

Why are you even in this thread considering you think it is a huge waste of time and have thought so for most of the winter if your posts are any indication. Why don't you go do something you enjoy instead? Like maybe blow up sex dolls, toy action figures or whatever tickles your fancy.

  • Like 2
  • Haha 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Who said this has anything to do with it being a Deb post? Though I am a tired of some weather/model illiterate people doing a drive-by just to drop a Deb turd and adding nothing of value this has very little to do with it. What I mostly take issue with is being told to move along as if he/she is some Sainted Pied Piper leading us morons to the promised land.

It is really pretty simple here. If you think something is a waste of time then don't partake. But what you sure as hell don't do is come in and play at conversion therapy to those that enjoy this hobby. 

As bad as this year has been with the crazy, trolling, and inappropriate attacks, one thing we didn’t have to deal with a lot was the constant whining about long range discussion in the long range thread. A few stupid posts but not much. That was one thing I was thankful to do without. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Who said this has anything to do with it being a Deb post? Though I am a tired of some weather/model illiterate people doing a drive-by just to drop a Deb turd and adding nothing of value this has very little to do with it. What I mostly take issue with is being told to move along as if he/she is some Sainted Pied Piper leading us morons to the promised land.

It is really pretty simple here. If you think something is a waste of time then don't partake. But what you sure as hell don't do is come in and play at conversion therapy to those that enjoy this hobby. 

Thank you.  You and many others are why most of us come here, to share thoughts and learn about something we love.  While not as versed, i try to add info that adds value to the discussion.  It really takes from the board when frustrated weenies drop the Deb posts and crawl back to their cave.  It "tough" for all of us at varying levels, but we are here because we like chasing snowstorms.  You guys put a ton of time into explanations of storms/patterns etc, and its of great value. 

Keep it up.  Looks like we may have a couple week window to land something appreciable here.  Would be nice to see the pattern deliver the way its supposed to.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...