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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What’s funny is the euro control had a 48 hour snowstorm also. 

I'm about to get busy at work. Will be teaching classes all day for the next couple weeks. I will be looking forward to your @ CAPE posts to keep me updated on the latest model fantasies, or disasters. Reel me in a legit snowstorm for once this winter. 

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11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I would bet we get a little surprise frozen sometime in the next week. It has happened since early January that something pops up in the 4-5 day range.

I have liked the chance of a sneaky event mid-late next week. There have been hints on the ops and the ensembles. Most likely it would be on the light side and probably favor coastal areas just to the NE of our region, but worth keeping an eye on.

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45 minutes ago, Ji said:
46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
What’s funny is the euro control had a 48 hour snowstorm also. 

I've always wanted payback for the March 2001 disaster

Payback for that and I have always felt like March 93 owed us something. Maybe not a full refund but something 

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@frd regarding enso, this will be part of my end of year retrospective but since you were talking about a possible nino next year thought I would throw it out there.  

What we really want is a moderate/strong modoki/central based Nino.  Anything else really doesn't do it for us.  

I went through and filtered out all the nino years by modoki/traditional and strength (and I used the older traditional modoki classification where if the nino originated in the central PAC and propagated east before regressing westward it was modoki regardless if it took on basin wide characteristics for a time as most do).  Here are the findings and snowfall for BWI  

Weak Modoki years using January: 1959, 1969, 1978, 1980, 1995, 2005, 2015.   Average snowfall 18.05"

Moderate/strong Modoki years: 1958, 1964, 1966, 1987, 1992, 2003, 2010.  Average snowfall 43.14. 

The only one that wasn't a historic winter was 1992 and most agree the eruption of Pinatubo significantly changed the patterns that year.  

Weak Traditional nino: 1952, 1954, 1970, 1977, 2007: avg snowfall 15.86"

Moderate: 1988 yea only one year lol, don't know what to make of that.  Snowfall 20.4"

Strong: 1973, 1983, 1998, 2016: avg 18.78" but with an obvious trend...2 of those years had one HECS and the other 2 did not and we got almost no snow in those.  

But the bottom line is the only type of nino that is actually good for us and raises our average snowfall above climo is a moderate/strong modoki.   Keep that in mind going forward.

Regarding this year...looks like this modoki weak fell into line with what I SHOULD have been expecting.  Weak modoki tend to be variable but none were blockbusters...a few were duds, but many of them were basically what this year has been...meh.  

Well that certainly makes sense...now before this season I had put weak ninos in a "could go either way" category for bigger snow chances...but looking at those numbers, while they're not nina terrible, they're, ah you said...meh. Average, if you will! (And I wonder if the weak ones are like that BECAUASE they can more easily get pushed around by other factors like the MJO and such?). Will certainly keep that in mind from now on as well, lol

So now...man it would be so sweet to get another shot at a moderate modoki next year with still having low solar--I hope that Webber dude is onto something!

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I have liked the chance of a sneaky event mid-late next week. There have been hints on the ops and the ensembles. Most likely it would be on the light side and probably favor coastal areas just to the NE of our region, but worth keeping an eye on.

 

Mentioned it earlier, but the 12z EURO had a clipper day 6/7, was super light but there.

 

ninja’d

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9 minutes ago, Ji said:
38 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:
I would bet we get a little surprise frozen sometime in the next week. It has happened since early January that something pops up in the 4-5 day range.

The euro had clipper next week. Similar to the Feb 1 thing

I thought you were out?  Is it next winter already? 

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