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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
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29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@frd regarding enso, this will be part of my end of year retrospective but since you were talking about a possible nino next year thought I would throw it out there.  

What we really want is a moderate/strong modoki/central based Nino.  Anything else really doesn't do it for us.  

I went through and filtered out all the nino years by modoki/traditional and strength (and I used the older traditional modoki classification where if the nino originated in the central PAC and propagated east before regressing westward it was modoki regardless if it took on basin wide characteristics for a time as most do).  Here are the findings and snowfall for BWI  

Weak Modoki years using January: 1959, 1969, 1978, 1980, 1995, 2005, 2015.   Average snowfall 18.05"

Moderate/strong Modoki years: 1958, 1964, 1966, 1987, 1992, 2003, 2010.  Average snowfall 43.14. 

The only one that wasn't a historic winter was 1992 and most agree the eruption of Pinatubo significantly changed the patterns that year.  

Weak Traditional nino: 1952, 1954, 1970, 1977, 2007: avg snowfall 15.86"

Moderate: 1988 yea only one year lol, don't know what to make of that.  Snowfall 20.4"

Strong: 1973, 1983, 1998, 2016: avg 18.78" but with an obvious trend...2 of those years had one HECS and the other 2 did not and we got almost no snow in those.  

But the bottom line is the only type of nino that is actually good for us and raises our average snowfall above climo is a moderate/strong modoki.   Keep that in mind going forward.

Regarding this year...looks like this modoki weak fell into line with what I SHOULD have been expecting.  Weak modoki tend to be variable but none were blockbusters...a few were duds, but many of them were basically what this year has been...meh.  

Do you think it's possible to have a Modoki super Nino? Or are 1957-58 and 2009-10 as good as it will ever get?

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15 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Do you think it's possible to have a Modoki super Nino? Or are 1957-58 and 2009-10 as good as it will ever get?

Why can't we install a huge length of booms surrounding region 3.4 and drop in massive heaters to heat the water?  I mean get that surface water to +5, hell even higher?!?!

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:
7 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:
Can we actually talk about if the Euro ensembles showed any snow or not? I’d look for myself but I’m 6 deep in Murphy’s Irish stouts 

Terrible. Default 3 inches

Your funny sometimes. It was an improvement over the last run and you weren’t complaining about that one. 

Also...it has nothing day 1-9. Pretty much all 3” is from that threat day 11.  That’s a much bigger signal than 3” speeds out over 15 days from a couple fluke hits on several low probability threats. 

There were about 15 members that miss us to the south. That’s another good sign. 

It was about as much of a signal as you will see day 11 for a storm on the EPS. 

It did pretty much lose any signal for snow before that though. 

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Your funny sometimes. It was an improvement over the last run and you weren’t complaining about that one. 

Also...it has nothing day 1-9. Pretty much all 3” is from that threat day 11.  That’s a much bigger signal than 3” speeds out over 15 days from a couple fluke hits on several low probability threats. 

There were about 15 members that miss us to the south. That’s another good sign. 

It was about as much of a signal as you will see day 11 for a storm on the EPS. 

It did pretty much lose any signal for snow before that though. 

I didnt check the last run. let's not talk about the d11 to 15 forecasting disaster this year. Without that being said...I except the 12z fv3 to be spot on

 

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11 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Can we actually talk about if the Euro ensembles showed any snow or not? I’d look for myself but I’m 6 deep in Murphy’s Irish stouts 

Some flush hits, south misses and north misses. A pretty good signal for a storm in the east late next weekend or early next week.

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