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Itstrainingtime

Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?

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8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That line over N/W PA is pretty crazy as well.  

Yea there's a couple bowing segments in the main line, with the most notable section that was tornado warned having impacted Warren a bit ago. Most impressive portion of the line seems to be I-80 north in PA at the moment. 

Primary threat with this overnight is of the QLCS variety, which presents the potential for brief tornadoes imbedded in some of the bowed segments in addition to the high likelihood of severe thunderstorm wind gusts. That's the general basis for the tornado watch issued for most of the commonwealth. Winds aloft are pretty significant (50-60kt at 850mb), so not going to take much to mix that down given central PA having busted into the warm sector. I know it's already been quite windy here this evening without the storms.

Was looking at mesoanalysis and this severe threat could have been a much more serious one had we had the daytime heating/CAPE element to things. This is a very impressive setup dynamically. Effective bulk shear and helicity numbers are VERY high right now in Central PA. Any kind of half decent CAPE would have sent the EHI parameter through the roof (one indicator for strong tornadoes). I'd say if this setup would have been shifted back 6-8 hours and central PA would have cleared some today and got sun and daytime heating this threat could well have been one with more discrete storm cell activity ahead of the front. This could have been a more traditional severe outbreak with very high tornadic potential. 

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Where still on the tale end of yesterdays boundry here . I was at Pinchot with my boy bass fishing about an hour ago I thought it felt eerie. I didn't now tale end Charlie was right next to me.

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Not much seemed to happen in Lancaster, but...I was inside the Dutch Apple Dinner Theater, so I wouldn't have heard much over the music anyway. 

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As usual the line fell apart over my area. We get very few solid lines from the west or southwest here in Lewisberry Most lines split my area and then  recongeal to the west. We do ok with the discreet stuff and any line that drops in. I got to see another early season light show to the north walking the dog. Right now and The storm as a whole looks like a nukes fiery stem rising into the mushroom.  Pretty  Awesome for April. My benchmark QLCS type storms all came in the 80's and early 90's Two in November 1989 Both I believe qualified as derechos one being by far the best lightning I have ever seen in my area and the other being a Funkin crazy scary and very rare low dewpoint derecho the wind just kept building for hours before the squal. Its Only storm that ever scared me in my home. I don't remember the year for the third and it my not have been qlcs types  but It was memorable hot and humid that day. luckily I was not at camp I was At Hershey for the Big 33 and Raghib the Rocket Ismail was playing in that game . I remember the newspaper article saying they say Lightning doesn't strike twice with A pic of the Rocket scoring and lighting in the background. The Whole valley got pounded that night so I assume it was a powerful line of storms. A bunch of kids at my camp where injured that night by a falling tree and also had there ear drums ruptured by close hits of lightning.  The Foken good old days when storms needed no hype. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Did you make it home?

We slept in our car for 2 hours until the line passed Baltimore, got home at 6:30 or so. Took showers and went back to bed.

Yesterday sucked. 

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26 minutes ago, canderson said:

We slept in our car for 2 hours until the line passed Baltimore, got home at 6:30 or so. Took showers and went back to bed.

Yesterday sucked. 

Wow. That was a long day. At least you're home safely.

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11 hours ago, canderson said:

Friday evening might be very stormy. 

 

10 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Friday evening might be very wet.

seems like a redo from Spring '18

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17 hours ago, Voyager said:

So does it mean colder or warmer overall for our region?

Not a met or a climatologist, but this seems to me that it would lead to a cooler, wetter environment for places most affected by the hole. Probably us. 

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18 hours ago, Voyager said:

So does it mean colder or warmer overall for our region?

I read it as being much more unpredictable and seasonal changes are different than historical. Which we have seen here with winter being pushed back and back it seems. 

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6 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

Not a met or a climatologist, but this seems to me that it would lead to a cooler, wetter environment for places most affected by the hole. Probably us. 

That's not what I wanted to hear, but I suppose it could be a possibility.

5 hours ago, canderson said:

I read it as being much more unpredictable and seasonal changes are different than historical. Which we have seen here with winter being pushed back and back it seems. 

This was my initial thought. The last few years seem to feature a much warmer October and a much cooler April.

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looking at next week, it appears rain Thursday-Friday-Saturday.............I really need sun (or at least NO rain) those 3 days. please!! Someone make that happen. 

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looking at next week, it appears rain Thursday-Friday-Saturday.............I really need sun (or at least NO rain) those 3 days. please!! Someone make that happen. 


The last 18 months this area has truly been flexing its “temperate rain forest” muscles. Watch us find a way to have a top 5 warmest and wettest April with the least sun.


. Pro

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Looks like most of the 18z guidance shows less than 2 inches of rain for most.


Did any guidance have your 3”+ Sunday?

A few people here are going to get caught under embedded convection and watch a pond grow where grass once stood. Everyone else will have to settle for a mud fest.

Whatever larger cycle we are in, it’s one that loves raining more than guidance.


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  • Haha 1

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14 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

 


Did any guidance have your 3”+ Sunday?

A few people here are going to get caught under embedded convection and watch a pond grow where grass once stood. Everyone else will have to settle for a mud fest.

Whatever larger cycle we are in, it’s one that loves raining more than guidance.


. Pro

 

You do have a point. I certainly didn't expect that 3 inches. That was Saturday morning. We got two more on Sunday night. The Schuylkill River here is still running high.

I was just surprised at the lower qpf on the GFS, and especially the NAM, which usually has a wet bias.

 

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It is 70 outside

It is midnight

It is April 18

We are going to to “min” our way into a top 10 warm April


. Pro

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Warm air keeps returning in a hurry after the cold fronts this spring. Just the other night we had a back door drop in and the cooler air retreated in about 20 hours . Looks to be warm muggy time ahead. My garden is vigorous early no burnt tips this year. Toads spawned early.  

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