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Itstrainingtime

Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?

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I'm at my favorite Harrisburg hiding place, the shopping center at 7th and Division Sts, so if anyone wants to stop and say hi (or shoot me for wishing winter away...lol) I'll be here until about 1pm...

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42 minutes ago, canderson said:

I didn't think it was bad yesterday - in fact I told my wife (not my fiance just my wife this time) that it didn't feel 79 degrees. 

I'm going to Texas Thursday and come back Monday. Probably get to see some severe Saturday as it's April and severe weather in east Texas in April is like wet weather in Pennsylvania in April. 

Maybe i just had heat flashes 

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On 4/9/2019 at 10:56 AM, Voyager said:

I'm at my favorite Harrisburg hiding place, the shopping center at 7th and Division Sts, so if anyone wants to stop and say hi (or shoot me for wishing winter away...lol) I'll be here until about 1pm...

I just saw this, day late and dollar short (story of @Atomixwx' life).

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NWS State College
@NWSStateCollege
28m
Yup. That's #snow on the grass in McKean County #PAwx. Light snow/rain is still possible through the morning, but the temperatures should rise and melt this off quickly today. 

 

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Interesting couple of days regarding temps - yesterday's projected high was 58, I got up to 68.2 for the high. Yesterday, today was supposed to be in the low to mid 60s. At 9:30am I was sitting at 44 with a fresh breeze out of the NE. If that continues we can kiss the 60s adios for today...

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Interesting couple of days regarding temps - yesterday's projected high was 58, I got up to 68.2 for the high. Yesterday, today was supposed to be in the low to mid 60s. At 9:30am I was sitting at 44 with a fresh breeze out of the NE. If that continues we can kiss the 60s adios for today...

Model temp forecasting has not been great this spring (it seems).  We could almost have daily pinned topics to talk about them but after a while its gets too boring :-).

 

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43 gray, damp degrees here in Tamaqua this morning. It feels very raw outside. Saturday looks to be a rather nice day, though.

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18 hours ago, canderson said:

I just saw this, day late and dollar short (story of @Atomixwx' life).

It's all good. One day, though, perhaps. My boss told me about the place where I park. It's certainly not the best part of Harrisburg, but it's fairly close to the capitol building (we have to drop and run), and there are three different places to eat there. So far, no one has bothered me there.

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I had about 10 minutes of snow flurries this Morning around 8:30am. Then it warmed up in the afternoon. 

Possible serve thunder storms for tomorrow I see.

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

Holy crap the 12z HRRR - look at it for Saturday afternoon in the Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana triangle. That’s where I am. 

Stay safe my friend. They were talking about the severe outbreak for down there earlier today on the Weatherless Channel. Looks like we get our first legit shot of storms here Sunday PM. 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Stay safe my friend. They were talking about the severe outbreak for down there earlier today on the Weatherless Channel. Looks like we get our first legit shot of storms here Sunday PM. 

We land at 945 pm Sunday in Baltimore. If I survive tomorrow sunday’s flight and drive might be interesting 

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

We land at 945 pm Sunday in Baltimore. If I survive tomorrow sunday’s flight and drive might be interesting 

That timing for a Sunday evening arrival at BWI might be a tad interesting...

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The Outbreak looks to be getting under way . Cells just exploded in east and west Tx. I see the spc only has them under slight risk there tonight.. There was just a beast super cell south of Rankin Tx . A complex looks to be forming around the low and the warm sector looks like a swarm of hornets flying north east. The loop on this one is going to be something to see . I hope the good people of the south get through this one ok. Spc also slightly  expanded Sundays outlook Maybe Sunday night could get us in on some sweet action. Like I said a few weeks back its looking to be one of  those years . Still waiting to here about the Cycles . Looks like I may have to eat shit on that one but we will see.  

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Woke up 15 minutes ago and checked my weather station and SURPRISE...the rainfall total for the event (so far) was 3.18". 

USGS site a quarter mile north of me...

USGS.01469500.121433.00045..20190411.20190413..0..gif

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If any storm lovers are up yet The super cell south of Rankin just took the right turn and is just south of Big lake Tx . Hail core to the extream. The storms along the warm front appear to be trying to rotate already . It Seams to me to be pretty rapid upscale growth for a slight risk environment not to mention most people in Tx are sleeping if the Spc gets caught with there paints down tonight we may see the first high risk day for quite some time tomorrow.

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Still raining here. The toed and frog populations are out of control this year if anyone has noticed. Never in my 40 years have I seen numbers like this in my area . The rain is now causing major issues in the rhizosphere and phyllosphere of are Trees and shrubs in the area. It is becoming very noticeable in the lower and now upper  branches of most coniferous and many deciduous are also now sacrificing there lower branches . Its also probably drowning a lot of the periodical Cicadas that the animals and I both love to munch on. There a real treat before they molt . What good pics for the forum :)

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Looks like it's going to get very interesting in Eastern Texas today.

Voyager looks like you got some decent rain. Just enough to screw up the trout streams.

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4 minutes ago, canderson said:

FWIW I’m in Gregg County, Texas, today. 

Wish me luck, I prob need it. 

Good luck, be careful, and stay safe...

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If you think its bad now this storm amplifies as Mississippi falls to sleep tonight. its also now looking like Day 6 through 8 even more of the country gets in on some action. But first it looks like we could be dealing with some strong cells proceeding a line echo wave pattern sunday night in are area befoe this one is done.

 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130900 SPC AC 130900 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to depict progression of a highly amplified upper trough across the U.S. through the Day 4-8 period. While differences are rather substantial with respect to the initial strength of this trough -- and thus its associated surface reflection -- as it exits the Rockies and moves into the Plains Day 5 (Wednesday 4-17), evolution/progression of the upper system thereafter is reasonably similar as it traverses the central and eastern U.S. through the end of the period. Given the amplitude of the trough, and accompanying/well-developed surface system, a favorably strong wind field will accompany the progression of this system, along with ample northward advection of Gulf moisture. As such, it appears that a kinematic and thermodynamic environment supportive of severe storms (and all modes of severe weather) will exist each day -- and therefore 15% risk areas are being added. Though model differences continue to cast some uncertainty as to location of the daily risk, as well as the magnitude, it appears that any risk Day 4 (Tuesday 4-16) will be limited. Day 5 (Wednesday 4-17) however, as the upper trough advances more fully into the central U.S., risk for severe weather is evident from roughly the Mid-Missouri Valley south across eastern portions of the Plains, and eastward to roughly the Mississippi Valley. Day 6 (Thursday 4-18), the risk should extend from roughly the Mississippi Valley to the Appalachians, and as far north as the Midwest states. Day 7 (Friday 4-19), risk should exist primarily east of the mountains. Finally, by Day 8 (Saturday 4-20), the front will likely be advancing offshore, and thus diminished potential is apparent. ..Goss.. 04/13/2019 CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Thanks for the well wishes guys. So far we have been just north of any TOR. Had some small hail earlier and more than 4” rain so far today but nothing too bad (by Texas spring standards). There is a wicked line about 50 Millie’s SW that willhit is though so timewill tell.

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