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Itstrainingtime

Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?

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Problem for this weeks system is instead of the NS diving in and phasing into the coastal there is a system diving into the lakes that pulls both the energy coming from the west and the developing coastal up into it. The southern system phases into the NS instead of the other way around. On top of that the system in the lakes allows the flow to turn southerly and wreck the low and mid levels. 

There could be a surprise thump snow somewhere across central PA though if the banding can pull down enough cold air. It’s close enough that I wouldn’t rule that out, especially in higher elevations. 

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Problem for this weeks system is instead of the NS diving in and phasing into the coastal there is a system diving into the lakes that pulls both the energy coming from the west and the developing coastal up into it. The southern system phases into the NS instead of the other way around. On top of that the system in the lakes allows the flow to turn southerly and wreck the low and mid levels. 

There could be a surprise thump snow somewhere across central PA though if the banding can pull down enough cold air. It’s close enough that I wouldn’t rule that out, especially in higher elevations. 

That’s a great point about the problem with this storm. Last week we were teased with a few good runs, then for several days most models developed the coastal way offshore. Now, the system has come back but, as you said, the phasing is not right.

 

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4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Problem for this weeks system is instead of the NS diving in and phasing into the coastal there is a system diving into the lakes that pulls both the energy coming from the west and the developing coastal up into it. The southern system phases into the NS instead of the other way around. On top of that the system in the lakes allows the flow to turn southerly and wreck the low and mid levels. 

There could be a surprise thump snow somewhere across central PA though if the banding can pull down enough cold air. It’s close enough that I wouldn’t rule that out, especially in higher elevations. 

The NAM seems to be presenting the best scenario for a potential rain to snow ordeal (def elevational) being the furthest west and focusing heavier precip into the central areas that are higher overall. I don't think the setup is necessarily terrible from the standpoint of how the storm develops and tracks but there's just not a lot of surface/low-mid level cold to work with until the rapidly deepening coastal has lifted away. 0z Euro has quite an intense band of QPF thru the Sus Valley into NE PA similar to the NAM (precip only edges central counties though) but low level thermals just aren't there at 925mb and surface and marginal at 850mb. It's hard to do marginal in late March outside of the higher elevations... so I see two potential areas we could see a wet snow threat evolve. The Laurels and higher ridge and valley region in the central third of the state (provided heavier precip set up that far back), or perhaps the more likely area.. the Poconos region of NE PA. The Euro did light up some accums in NE PA. 

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5 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

The NAM seems to be presenting the best scenario for a potential rain to snow ordeal (def elevational) being the furthest west and focusing heavier precip into the central areas that are higher overall. I don't think the setup is necessarily terrible from the standpoint of how the storm develops and tracks but there's just not a lot of surface/low-mid level cold to work with until the rapidly deepening coastal has lifted away. 0z Euro has quite an intense band of QPF thru the Sus Valley into NE PA similar to the NAM (precip only edges central counties though) but low level thermals just aren't there at 925mb and surface and marginal at 850mb. It's hard to do marginal in late March outside of the higher elevations... so I see two potential areas we could see a wet snow threat evolve. The Laurels and higher ridge and valley region in the central third of the state (provided heavier precip set up that far back), or perhaps the more likely area.. the Poconos region of NE PA. The Euro did light up some accums in NE PA. 

This might be my perspective being used to posting in the mid-atlantic forum...plus I live right along the border between the two forums so I am the southeastern EDGE of your region.  About 7 days ago super long range guidance had "teased" the mid Atlantic (DC/Baltimore) area with snow solutions from this storm.   Then for a while the guidance started to squash the storm completely.  I was kind of explaining why now that it has trended back towards a storm it also became wet vs white.  A week ago when it was teasing with a chance of snow the evolution was different.  That initial upper level low swinging through the midwest was diving into the trough and phasing with the STJ over the southeast and pulling the NS into the system...  Basically the NS was phasing into the STJ system and bombing the whole thing to our southeast.  What is actually happening now is a third piece of energy from the NS is diving into the lakes...and both the midwest upper energy and the STJ energy over the southeast are being pulled up and phasing into that.  The phase is happening way further north then those runs that teased snow for the DC area a long time ago.  So its the same storm, sorta, but the evolution is completely different.   The key energy over the lakes that ended up bringing this back wasn't even on the radar 5 days ago.   It might still work out for places further north...the NW half of this forum northward, for instance, but its a crap setup for the southeast part of this region and all of the mid atlantic region...and for the coastal northeast for that matter. 

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33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This might be my perspective being used to posting in the mid-atlantic forum...plus I live right along the border between the two forums so I am the southeastern EDGE of your region.  About 7 days ago super long range guidance had "teased" the mid Atlantic (DC/Baltimore) area with snow solutions from this storm.   Then for a while the guidance started to squash the storm completely.  I was kind of explaining why now that it has trended back towards a storm it also became wet vs white.  A week ago when it was teasing with a chance of snow the evolution was different.  That initial upper level low swinging through the midwest was diving into the trough and phasing with the STJ over the southeast and pulling the NS into the system...  Basically the NS was phasing into the STJ system and bombing the whole thing to our southeast.  What is actually happening now is a third piece of energy from the NS is diving into the lakes...and both the midwest upper energy and the STJ energy over the southeast are being pulled up and phasing into that.  The phase is happening way further north then those runs that teased snow for the DC area a long time ago.  So its the same storm, sorta, but the evolution is completely different.   The key energy over the lakes that ended up bringing this back wasn't even on the radar 5 days ago.   It might still work out for places further north...the NW half of this forum northward, for instance, but its a crap setup for the southeast part of this region and all of the mid atlantic region...and for the coastal northeast for that matter. 

thats what i was saying earlier this week.  Looks like its happening, just NE of where we were seeing a few days back.  That's why I sorta wrote this one off with the exception fo the poconos and pts NE.  

Plus I'll be up at the cabin trying to do some excavating.....and dont tell anyone in here....but I'm sorta hoping it doesn't happen (words I've never typed before :lol:).

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12 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

 

Guys...I went to timeanddate.com and read through their explanations.  They specifically have @Festus' reasoning as one explanation for this issue.  @pasnownut I see you copied the map from timeanddate here.  I'm still trying to figure out the relationship to that map and how it accounts for the issue we were discussing.  I will say that there does not seem to be any discussion that would confirm my presumption as state above.  So, for the time being I still think I might be on the right track with my thinking, but I'm not sure it is the ONLY reason why.  :) BTW, I just wanted you to know that I wasn't trying to come across as a "know-it-all" with what I said above.  I found the idea exciting actually and I wanted to try and find an answer.  Also, timeanddate says that latitude also plays a role, and in some cases a significant role in the answer.  So...plenty food for thought while we wait for next week's snowstorm...lol.

 

You can disagree all you want....thats why its a discussion forum.

 

No worries.  I don't offend easily, especially when someone gives sound reasoning as to why i may be 22.1 degrees off my rocker....B)

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33 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

thats what i was saying earlier this week.  Looks like its happening, just NE of where we were seeing a few days back.  That's why I sorta wrote this one off with the exception fo the poconos and pts NE.  

Plus I'll be up at the cabin trying to do some excavating.....and dont tell anyone in here....but I'm sorta hoping it doesn't happen (words I've never typed before :lol:).

I was the same way last week when I was cleaning my Moms house out for closing. I was hoping for nicer weather.

Took 2 good size dumpsters to clean out all the junk she accumulated over the years.

Looks like you could be on the fringe of 3-5" up there.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Regarding the EPS/GEFS diferences around our day 6-7 system, the euro is swinging the NS trough through ahead of the southern feature and leaving way more energy behind.  

That creates a nice setup here...

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_7.thumb.png.ab7a0f57b865a4f238f8ed5f0b815ba8.png

EPSlowbehind.thumb.png.9c54f2b06e3a125e0999b38199b89580.png

The NS comes in ahead and supplies the cold and creates confluence to our north... while there is enough energy coming in behind to track a system under us.  

But the GFS/GEFS/FV3 keys on the northern stream...leaves almost nothing behind and so it drives a low to our north and then simply drags a cold front through behind.  

gfs-ens_z500a_us_24.thumb.png.a34cc9d9572d3e8dbdca52682df3615b.png

gefsfront.thumb.png.62271bc1acd9b5a99305c20a13680488.png

On the one hand the euro MIGHT be playing into its bias of leaving energy behind here.  BUT... most of the secondary guidance agrees more with the euro progression.  

GEPS is probably the most supportive...

gem2.thumb.png.01eaa8bc6649e761237df57227dddb0a.png

while the GEFS at the same time has nothing

gfsnothing.thumb.png.04fcfa10a6b63105e3c3c19cfd4868d7.png

The NAVGEM and UKMET are also in the euro camp with having separation between the two features and leaving enough behind to develop a storm, the ICON is kind of in between the two.  Keep in mind that even if we get the euro progression that does not mean we get a snowstorm.  The storm could still end up too warm, it is late March.  It could also end up suppressed.  So even getting the euro look isn't any guarantee of anything.  But we have to figure out the basic synoptic progression before we can even begin to worry about details like that.  ATT I would favor the euro progression...slightly, over the GFS.  

Bringing this over here from the mid atlantic forum since it applies to many in here also.  

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1 hour ago, pawatch said:

I was the same way last week when I was cleaning my Moms house out for closing. I was hoping for nicer weather.

Took 2 good size dumpsters to clean out all the junk she accumulated over the years.

Looks like you could be on the fringe of 3-5" up there.

Cleaning out parents.... been there done that.  They moved 3 times in the last 12 years and my dad is a packrat.  I feel your pain.  After last purge, they moved to an adult community nearby, and he rents 3 sheds in addition to the 1 on his property....for his "stuff".  They are all full to the brim.  Good luck w/ your purge.  

I sure hope best accums stay well east.  But it is what it is, and it wont be terrible to be working in the snow.  Just have a bunch of guys coming up to help, so it may be a bit messy.  Worse things to worry about for sure. 

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9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Bringing this over here from the mid atlantic forum since it applies to many in here also.  

Great post on next week’s potential storm!

It kind of reminds me of the storms from March 2014 or 2015. The Cold air pressed so much that PA missed out on 2 or 3 snowstorms that gave good snow to MD & VA. 

Hopefully next week the cold air arrives in time & stalls to provide a good boundary to run across so MD & PA both cash in !

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10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This might be my perspective being used to posting in the mid-atlantic forum...plus I live right along the border between the two forums so I am the southeastern EDGE of your region.  About 7 days ago super long range guidance had "teased" the mid Atlantic (DC/Baltimore) area with snow solutions from this storm.   Then for a while the guidance started to squash the storm completely.  I was kind of explaining why now that it has trended back towards a storm it also became wet vs white.  A week ago when it was teasing with a chance of snow the evolution was different.  That initial upper level low swinging through the midwest was diving into the trough and phasing with the STJ over the southeast and pulling the NS into the system...  Basically the NS was phasing into the STJ system and bombing the whole thing to our southeast.  What is actually happening now is a third piece of energy from the NS is diving into the lakes...and both the midwest upper energy and the STJ energy over the southeast are being pulled up and phasing into that.  The phase is happening way further north then those runs that teased snow for the DC area a long time ago.  So its the same storm, sorta, but the evolution is completely different.   The key energy over the lakes that ended up bringing this back wasn't even on the radar 5 days ago.   It might still work out for places further north...the NW half of this forum northward, for instance, but its a crap setup for the southeast part of this region and all of the mid atlantic region...and for the coastal northeast for that matter. 

Yea I remember that Euro control run about a week or so ago in particular that detonated that huge storm (this upcoming coastal). That particular model run actually had the third shortwave that drops out of Hudson Bay (which is notable on models in the much nearer term now) and that run phased everything in a manner that gave that 960mb off the Delmarva solution... making it look quite like a triple phase type thing with three shortwaves involved. I actually commented on it back on the 11th (page 54). At the time the other models only had two shortwaves interacting and not the one that came right out of Hudson Bay, making less explosive solutions than that one was.

9 days and a lot of different coastal and non coastal solutions later and we actually have ended up settling on what looks like a decent coastal storm but as has been noted by you guys, via a later and further north phase. With more cold available up front this still could have been salvaged as a nice snowstorm even down into parts of the Mid-Atlantic subforum. You look at thicknesses and 540 line is into the Sus Valley, but that's more a result of the levels above 850mb as the lower levels 850mb and under are going to be cool and pretty isothermal but still too warm. I do think this ended up really close to being something pretty big. The heavy precip band northern MD up into the Sus Valley certainly indicates decent dynamics involved. I'd still watch elevational areas in NE and perhaps some of North Central PA above IPT. 

 

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I kinda hope I get little or nothing precip wise out of this coastal system haha. After months of being so wet and finally starting to dry things out around the yard to where I can actually walk on it now.. I think I'd take high and dry over a rainstorm or a rain/snow mix that amounted to little or nothing in the snow department. I'm pretty much at the point of the season where my weather preferences would be as follows:

1. Big time snow storm

2. Warm and dry 

3. Cold and dry 

4. Advisory snow that probably lasts a day or less on the ground

5. Rain 

 

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