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Itstrainingtime

Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Stunned we did a little better over this way. Lanco almost universally is reporting between 3" and 3.5" or so. 

You guys, and all of the I-81 corridor are going to clean up on Sunday's storm. 6"-12" is looking good. Lanco is the mix zone...I kinda like my positioning in the county being both north and west...

Yea, it seems the better forcing went slightly north of me here and then veered south.  That was suggested on the RGEM last night.  We actually may clean up tonight as well.  If the Nam is right we get 4-6" here tonight.  I think everyone is still in the game for Sunday :-).

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1 minute ago, bubbler86 said:

Yea, it seems the better forcing went slightly north of me here and then veered south.  That was suggested on the RGEM last night.  We actually may clean up tonight as well.  If the Nam is right we get 4-6" here tonight.  I think everyone is still in the game for Sunday :-).

originally i was blowing off the 2nd event tonight as i didn't buy it. But now it looks likely. 

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Just now, sauss06 said:

originally i was blowing off the 2nd event tonight as i didn't buy it. But now it looks likely. 

I know what you mean. Until a few days ago, most of us were just looking forward to the Sunday storm.

Thanks to @bubbler86 for not losing sight of tonight’s storm, which is looking better with each run of the models!

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13 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

There's not much to keep that storm from being a quick mover with the NAO going positive and no high pressure to the north. The key as I mentioned this morning is keeping the low south of PA, which is going to hinge on where the boundary between the cold air and warm air ultimately lies. I think most of C-PA is sitting in a good spot for this, although the southern tier LSV is an area I'd be concerned about for mixing. This event overall strikes me as of the quick hitting 10-12hr 5-10" ish variety for the area that gets the best snow in our region. 

Lol...will we end up in weak area for qpf? That's like our job up here.

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4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I know what you mean. Until a few days ago, most of us were just looking forward to the Sunday storm.

Thanks to @bubbler86 for not losing sight of tonight’s storm, which is looking better with each run of the models!

yep this is the Bubbler storm for sure. 

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10 hours ago, bubbler86 said:

The LR HRRR is also favoring York and Lancaster getting the business.  Not extreme like the Nam but that is two 0Z's suggesting Wave 2 may be a real threat. 

Nice call. You do own that one for sure. I dismissed because of spacing but nice find. 

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11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@bubbler86 Not sure if you'll be able to do any PBP this weekend? Brian (daxx) is working all weekend and will probably only be able to check in on breaks and then post during the evening some. 

I will be defintely be here today unless there are fires at work that pull me away.  Have to spend some time with my wife tomorrow so will be sporadic myself.    I only have weather.us for the EC so not nearly as nice as Daxx but I can try to steal info from the MA :-).  12Z Nam is only 30 min away! 

Edit-There are some other posters who do PBP at times.  @CarlislePaWx, @Superstormand of course, @Blizzard of 93

 

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15 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

originally i was blowing off the 2nd event tonight as i didn't buy it. But now it looks likely. 

Gotta say I didn’t pay much attention to it. I missed. I’m up in Tioga and actually wish I was home to see snow on snow on snow. 

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Just now, pasnownut said:

Gotta say I didn’t pay much attention to it. I missed. I’m up in Tioga and actually wish I was home to see snow on snow on snow. 

We'll see just how much is left. Upper 30s on March 1st plus a fine, powdery snow is not a good combination for retention. 

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10 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

yep this is the Bubbler storm for sure. 

Everyone is saying that but I blew my snow forecast total with it being so amped up now.  I thought it would add to the totals but not to the tune of 4 or more inches foir those west of the line! 

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The latest HRRR, thinks those 4-6" totals tonight will be over the Lancaster county crew.  Forget the snow totals here just where the line of heavy snow is.  If the Nam stays as is was earlier I would still think Lancaster mixes some. 

 

image.png.5ef6e27db14c1d5af91f28d65d70744c.png

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19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

We'll see just how much is left. Upper 30s on March 1st plus a fine, powdery snow is not a good combination for retention. 

I thought this snow had some weight to it. I may be getting old but i didn't think it was powdery.  

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3 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

I thought this snow had some weight to it. I may be getting old but i didn't think it was powdery.  

You know, after I posted what i did I thought to myself "someone is going to question my statement about it being powdery." Thank you for being the one. :)

It was kind of odd, I thought my driveway was sorta wet and sorta powdery, but that was about the easiest 3.6" I could imagine to clean off the cars. It was VERY powdery. 

I don't measure QPF content in the snow like @Cashtown_Coop and @CarlislePaWx do, but judging from what Cashtown said earlier it would appear that overall it was NOT very powdery. 

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9 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

I thought this snow had some weight to it. I may be getting old but i didn't think it was powdery.  

It's not heavy, you're just a bitch.

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Just caught up with the posts from overnight.  Things looking great for tonight and the big one on Sunday.  Measured 3.8" on the board.  It was still snowing extremely lightly when I measured about 15 minutes ago, but not accumulating anymore.  Temp 28.2 after holding most of the night at 27.0.  I like where I'm sitting for the upcoming events.  Thanks to all who threw up maps.  Very helpful. :)

Edit>>Will have liquid measurement in an hour or two.  Others seemed to have been around 11:1 or so.

 

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12Z Nam is defintely not going be all snow in the southeast LSV.  The 15 hour column chart shows a good idea of the where the rain snow line would be...slightly to the SE of the blue

image.thumb.png.22be8dfe0bae062b126378cc0450414b.png

 

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11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You know, after I posted what i did I thought to myself "someone is going to question my statement about it being powdery." Thank you for being the one. :)

It was kind of odd, I thought my driveway was sorta wet and sorta powdery, but that was about the easiest 3.6" I could imagine to clean off the cars. It was VERY powdery. 

I don't measure QPF content in the snow like @Cashtown_Coop and @CarlislePaWx do, but judging from what Cashtown said earlier it would appear that overall it was NOT very powdery. 

i saw something this morning i have never seen that shows how wet the snow was. As the plow truck came past my house, the snow rolled off the plow and built a solid wall the length of my driveway, the same height as the plow. i was like phuck......no way i was snow blowing that. i just took my Tahoe and ran over it several times knocking it down :lol:

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Here is the NAM snowfall map for tonight...whether you like snowfall maps or not it is pretty representative of reality for this predict as the taint line is very small...it is mostly rain or snow.  @Voyager is hopefully not flying home today. 

image.png.0d3a7e69d81606327f46308416c5c8f9.png

 

 

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Just now, bubbler86 said:

Here is the NAM snowfall map for tonight...whether you like snowfall maps or not it is pretty representative of reality for this predict as the taint line is very small...it is most rain or snow. 

image.png.0d3a7e69d81606327f46308416c5c8f9.png

 

 

Lol...you're the winner on that map.  Bullseye FTW.

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Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

Lol...you're the winner on that map.  Bullseye FTW.

Yep, NWS should give me a WSW!

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3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Here is the NAM snowfall map for tonight...whether you like snowfall maps or not it is pretty representative of reality for this predict as the taint line is very small...it is mostly rain or snow.  @Voyager is hopefully not flying home today. 

image.png.0d3a7e69d81606327f46308416c5c8f9.png

 

 

is this new snow from round 2, or total of 1 and 2? 

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Just now, sauss06 said:

is this new snow from round 2, or total of 1 and 2? 

This is all from round 2 and does not include last night.  I will post round 3 when it comes out. 

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Just now, bubbler86 said:

This is all from round 2 and does not include last night.  I will post round 3 when it comes out. 

Thats what i thought, thank you!

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2 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Thats what i thought, thank you!

Sure.  Sometimes I leave off the time stamps and I guess I should not but trying to keep the screen grab "less than huge". 

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