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Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?


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Looks like trend of the models yesterday taking away accumulations turned out to be correct.  If current radar is correct it's about over here.  Temp 31.8.  The snow only managed to begin to stick to my board and nowhere else.  The board is white, but it definitely isn't 0.1" of accumulation.  Best I can go with is a trace, however I'm not keeping track of traces in my snow records below.  Today is day 8 with solid snow cover (high temp only 34.2) and I'll keep it going into day 9, probably up until the heavy rain arrives late tomorrow night.

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3 hours ago, daxx said:

The nam has Harrisburg at 49 at 21z Sunday.The Euro has Harrisburg at 66 on 21z Sunday. Only a 17 degree difference.

I'd bet on the cooler outcome for this particular system on Sunday. The southern LSV turnpike and south may make a pretty good run into the 50s but other than that I think most of our area runs mid-upper 40s to near 50. Now the next cutter slated for later next week looks like one that will drive some very warm air into the area with no CAD setup out front and a significant southerly flow. 850 temps are progged in the 10-15ºC range for a fairly extended period ahead of that per Euro and GFS. If that gets mixed down that'll def be a warm period. 

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27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Heard that there is a flash freeze like situation on route 30 for miles once leaving  McConnellsburg and heading west.  They had about an inch of snow and wet roads are now ice.  Heard a scanner report.   Google Maps shows it as a backup as well.  

Oof those are scary esp when people really don’t expect it like tonight. 

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7 hours ago, canderson said:

Have a bad feeling today was the last day we see flakes falling this season down in the LSV. Hope I’m wrong.

The advertised pattern on the EPS continues to say that we are probably not done with snow chances.

We should have one more window of opportunity opening on the 17th through the end of March.

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The advertised pattern on the EPS continues to say that we are probably not done with snow chances.

We should have one more window of opportunity opening on the 17th through the end of March.

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Where was that +PNA all winter?

 

NAO looks positive so it would be a thread the needle event.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


Where was that -PNA all winter?

NAO looks positive so it would be a thread the needle event.


.

I think you meant + not - buddy boy?

Get more coffee. :P

Ensemble guidance still looks good for the St Patty day period and beyond, I think blizz is right, we should see chances pop up/tease as we get into next week. A few sw's belly under in that period so it bears watching.

 

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I think you meant + not - buddy boy?
Get more coffee. 
Ensemble guidance still looks good for the St Patty day period and beyond, I think blizz is right, we should see chances pop up/tease as we get into next week. A few sw's belly under in that period so it bears watching.
 

Corrected, thank you.

As we get into medium range of the 17th, those chances will be better defined.


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2 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


Corrected, thank you.

As we get into medium range of the 17th, those chances will be better defined.


.

I gotchu.

That period has been consistently showing up as the last good window for us, and I've been following it for a few days now.  Tellies look to be decent for that period, so its not some unicorn that were chasing.  

All my buds are up snowmobiling, and I'm sitting here looking for digital snow....what the heck is wrong w/ me?

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12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Have to say it feels really good outside today. Kind of a reality check that the seasons are in transition now. Tomorrow emphasizes that reality with the later sunset.

The haze out here, despite a good snow pack, is a sign the cold is losing out.  Feels good out but going to miss snow chasing. 

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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

The haze out here, despite a good snow pack, is a sign the cold is losing out.  Feels good out but going to miss snow chasing. 

Tell me about it. While many people consider spring to be their favorite season, for me it's just the opposite. It usually takes me a while to get over winter ending. Also, I have no interest in severe weather so there's zero anticipation of that. 

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7 minutes ago, daxx said:

After our small window of opportunity after the 16th I would be  happy with four weeks of at least dry weather.   I do not want another summer of rain and floods again.  Last summer was truly disgusting! 

Amen. The weeds were out of control too. 

Today is really pretty. Brilliant sun and 41 (but it feels much warmer.)

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4 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

The haze out here, despite a good snow pack, is a sign the cold is losing out.  Feels good out but going to miss snow chasing. 

I don’t think we are going to miss chasing for long. I expect to be tracking a discrete snow threat for next week in the next few days. This pattern should deliver something, even if it is just a solid clipper.

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

I don’t think we are going to miss chasing for long. I expect to be tracking a discrete snow threat for next week in the next few days. This pattern should deliver something, even if it is just a solid clipper.

I could see some northern stream disturbance giving us something.  I'm looking for a southern stream/coastal.   A 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 is only a stat padder now.  Then again two days from now it could look totally different. 

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Just now, daxx said:

I could see some northern stream disturbance giving us something.  I'm looking for a southern stream/coastal.   A 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 is only a stat padder now.  Then again two days from now it could look totally different. 

I’m good with stat padding at this point. With the +PNA & eastern trough, we should have a couple of more chances at snow before the end of the month.

The 12z EPS continues to advertise a good looking pattern starting next Sunday.

I think more threats will emerge on the Ops in the next few days.

 

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’m good with stat padding at this point. With the +PNA & eastern trough, we should have a couple of more chances at snow before the end of the month.

The 12z EPS continues to advertise a good looking pattern starting next Sunday.

I think more threats will emerge on the Ops in the next few days.

 

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There is a very small number of hits on the eps run day 10 on but I'm not sure it is too exciting yet.  Still very dry overall. 

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The MJO on the Euro & GEFS continues to come to a screeching halt at the beginning of phase 4 in the next couple of days.

The GEFS takes us back to phase 3, heading towards 2 & the Euro takes us into to circle null phase, but in the direction of phase 3 & 2.

We should have one last chance at a run of winter weather this month.

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Down to snow piles here but spent the day driving around mountainous Northern Franklin and Fulton County and it is like a winter wonderland there.  6-12" snow pack, soft January like snow, snowmobilers galore.  Was nice to see especially since it was so nice today so great to walk around a bit.  Only that constant haze made it less than perfect.   We went to Cowans Gap State Park and the large lake there is frozen solid at least 50 feet out (which is how far I ventured not wanting to risk it).  The ice was "feet" thick.  Could not see any water through throughout the whole lake. 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Tell me about it. While many people consider spring to be their favorite season, for me it's just the opposite. It usually takes me a while to get over winter ending. Also, I have no interest in severe weather so there's zero anticipation of that. 

Yea, Spring is the sad season if anything (for me).  Fall is the "We are close" season. 

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