Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2019 Author Share Posted March 5, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: I saw that, but gotta say, that's one hell of a stretch. Cold is on the way out, and while a few ticks south may happen, I'd think it could trend into some frozen at onset, only to be scoured out. I wanna be wrong, but this setup in Mid March, doesnt work like it does in Jan/Feb. I'll give him props, and hes a good guy, but I sense he has a lot of room on that limb that hes standing on. IMO next shot is if we get the reload in the east after the next few cutters hit us. Its just been the theme, and w/ MJO headed towards COD, Im not sure other tellies are pronounced enough to get a big hit. PNA slightly + beyond 7-8 days and neut NAO, says coldish but no big trough in the east for something to dive in. Progressive is the flow. Yes...and like @daxx said yesterday to me our next legit and perhaps final chance is after 3/16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 29 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yes...and like @daxx said yesterday to me our next legit and perhaps final chance is after 3/16. most ensembles have been suggesting that period beyond next weeks mess. GEPS and GEFS look similar beyond 300, but do diverge further out (although same base state w/ rigding out west and trough in the east. We all know not to throw too many of our chips into LR guidance, so the window looks to be there for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 53 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yes...and like @daxx said yesterday to me our next legit and perhaps final chance is after 3/16. The reality may be setting in that this past Sunday was our last snow of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, paweather said: The reality may be setting in that this past Sunday was our last snow of the season. It is possible but I would almost bet it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 We usually own March but seems best has been suppressed south kids f mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, daxx said: It is possible but I would almost bet it's not. yep. There is still time for sure. Just a matter of when are there possibilities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 1 hour ago, daxx said: It is possible but I would almost bet it's not. I think your right, but I'm just setting realistic expectations in that the window may not be a large one. We sure can bootleg our way into snow and that's what I'm thinking will be how we score anymore events, unless someone sees something I don't. I think we need to wait until next weekend to see if the ridge W trough E look continues to hold or deepen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 Hopefully everybody is keeping realistic expectations. It will be mid March by then so no one should expect anything. I just think we have an opportunity to score something after mid month. Is it going to substantial? Not sure too far out in time. If Sunday was the last then on to next Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2019 Author Share Posted March 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, daxx said: Hopefully everybody is keeping realistic expectations. It will be mid March by then so no one should expect anything. I just think we have an opportunity to score something after mid month. Is it going to substantial? Not sure too far out in time. If Sunday was the last then on to next Winter. Great post...couldn't have said it better. Unrealistic expectations run rampant on these boards. (not necessarily in our sub) Chances might be no better than 50/50 but it beats days of endless summer, right @Voyager ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 9 minutes ago, daxx said: Hopefully everybody is keeping realistic expectations. It will be mid March by then so no one should expect anything. I just think we have an opportunity to score something after mid month. Is it going to substantial? Not sure too far out in time. If Sunday was the last then on to next Winter. We have a wave swinging under us in 3 days so my expectations are just to see that play out. If temps were not an issue I would be more gung ho in hoping moisture can be pushed up our way. We have done pretty with these clipper type systems this year. I also want to see Cashtown and at least one other, I think Carlisle, get to their goals :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We have a wave swinging under us in 3 days so my expectations are just to see that play out. If temps were not an issue I would be more gung ho in hoping moisture can be pushed up our way. We have done pretty with these clipper type systems this year. I also want to see Cashtown and at least one other, I think Carlisle, get to their goals :-). Are you trying to hint at another Friday Bubbler86 snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 11 minutes ago, daxx said: Are you trying to hint at another Friday Bubbler86 snowstorm? Ha, I am just watching it as it is a wave coming under us. Seems the Euro has some accumulation now south of the turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 I think your right, but I'm just setting realistic expectations in that the window may not be a large one. We sure can bootleg our way into snow and that's what I'm thinking will be how we score anymore events, unless someone sees something I don't. I think we need to wait until next weekend to see if the ridge W trough E look continues to hold or deepen. Almost every event since November has been bootlegged.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 39 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We have a wave swinging under us in 3 days so my expectations are just to see that play out. If temps were not an issue I would be more gung ho in hoping moisture can be pushed up our way. We have done pretty with these clipper type systems this year. I also want to see Cashtown and at least one other, I think Carlisle, get to their goals :-). Well...that was very kind of you to think of me. Honestly, I never had a goal. I always just wait to see how the winter plays out whether it's good or bad. Sunday's storm pushed a bunch of us around here over the 40" mark, so that was great. If I had any desires left for winter it would be the very, very unlikely probability of MDT having a third consecutive March with a 12"+ snowstorm. The funny thing is that I can barely remember anything about the big one from last year. Now I know my weather memory is beginning to go when I cannot remember a storm like that. Take me back to '78, '83, '93, '96 and I can give you all sorts of details about those storms still to this day. Edit>>I did have a goal. It was to reach 12" with the sum of all 3 storms. I came up 0.3" short. Oh so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 Well...that was very kind of you to think of me. Honestly, I never had a goal. I always just wait to see how the winter plays out whether it's good or bad. Sunday's storm pushed a bunch of us around here over the 40" mark, so that was great. If I had any desires left for winter it would be the very, very unlikely probability of MDT having a third consecutive March with a 12"+ snowstorm. The funny thing is that I can barely remember anything about the big one from last year. Now I know my weather memory is beginning to go when I cannot remember a storm like that. Take me back to '78, '83, '93, '96 and I can give you all sorts of details about those storms still to this day.It might be because we’ve had so many 12”+ storms in the past decade that the rarity and salience to memory isn’t what it once was. . Pro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Jns2183 said: It might be because we’ve had so many 12”+ storms in the past decade that the rarity and salience to memory isn’t what it once was. . Pro Good point! It's been quite the decade for doozies here in the LSV. And to think, we're only supposed to have one 10"+ storm per decade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Well...that was very kind of you to think of me. Honestly, I never had a goal. I always just wait to see how the winter plays out whether it's good or bad. Sunday's storm pushed a bunch of us around here over the 40" mark, so that was great. If I had any desires left for winter it would be the very, very unlikely probability of MDT having a third consecutive March with a 12"+ snowstorm. The funny thing is that I can barely remember anything about the big one from last year. Now I know my weather memory is beginning to go when I cannot remember a storm like that. Take me back to '78, '83, '93, '96 and I can give you all sorts of details about those storms still to this day. Edit>>I did have a goal. It was to reach 12" with the sum of all 3 storms. I came up 0.3" short. Oh so close. I'm still behind over this way. I'm now sitting at 37.0 for the year, hopefully I can be part of the 40 and over club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Almost every event since November has been bootlegged. . yeah its been an "interesting" year for snow. We've gone the "non traditional" route many times. Unfortunately, it will likely give pause to any slam dunk "winter of 2020" forecasts, but its way to early to prognosticate nino/nina as we are neutralish right now - although i've not looked for some time, so that may be off base. In truth, i really dont care about next year right now. Still feel the burn of what was to be a banner one - no matter how we've scratched our way towards climo, its not been easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 1 minute ago, daxx said: I'm still behind over this way. I'm now sitting at 37.0 for the year, hopefully I can be part of the 40 and over club. I had thought I remembered two or three people being within 1" or less of some goal or another. Cash was 50". Apparently Carlisle reached his. If any Friday event could delay a bit and show up mostly later in the day at least some would have a fresh white landscape to start the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Good point! It's been quite the decade for doozies here in the LSV. And to think, we're only supposed to have one 10"+ storm per decade. That is a great point. I think personally i cant let go of what was to be an "easy" winter, and how much "work/luck" it took to get where we are. Feels like the last couple of winters down here have been "work" for me. I remember being in the duldrums all to well and the board rather silent for many periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I had thought I remembered two or three people being within 1" or less of some goal or another. Cash was 50". Apparently Carlisle reached his. If any Friday event could delay a bit and show up mostly later in the day at least some would have a fresh white landscape to start the weekend. GFS is in a good spot for the normal jog north. I think it has merit and legs for a refresher, before it goes away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: yeah its been an "interesting" year for snow. We've gone the "non traditional" route many times. Unfortunately, it will likely give pause to any slam dunk "winter of 2020" forecasts, but its way to early to prognosticate nino/nina as we are neutralish right now - although i've not looked for some time, so that may be off base. In truth, i really dont care about next year right now. Still feel the burn of what was to be a banner one - no matter how we've scratched our way towards climo, its not been easy. You better get with it dude only 201 days until fall! Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, daxx said: I'm still behind over this way. I'm now sitting at 37.0 for the year, hopefully I can be part of the 40 and over club. I know what you're referring to. But you probably caught my comment from yesterday directed at Sauss that also implied our age over 40. I don't think Canderson is there yet and neither is Blizz, nor you. I have to warn you. The dues to join the club will be going up every day from now until the end of the month. You might not be able to afford them before the offer to join ends. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2019 Author Share Posted March 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, daxx said: You better get with it dude only 201 days until fall! Lol I got razzed this morning for telling my team how many days are left until the summer solstice and the march down to shorter days and winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, daxx said: You better get with it dude only 201 days until fall! Lol I already have my '19-'20 copy of the Farmers Almanac reserved. My brother works at one of the places that publish it so I get an advance copy and I will have my winter outlook available after I peruse it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 yeah its been an "interesting" year for snow. We've gone the "non traditional" route many times. Unfortunately, it will likely give pause to any slam dunk "winter of 2020" forecasts, but its way to early to prognosticate nino/nina as we are neutralish right now - although i've not looked for some time, so that may be off base. In truth, i really dont care about next year right now. Still feel the burn of what was to be a banner one - no matter how we've scratched our way towards climo, its not been easy.Despite all the analogs and teleconnections, I consistently saw two things that usually don’t bode well if you want a prolific winter season in the east:1. LES continuing all season long off Lake Erie. That shuts off in late December or January in our good winter seasons....pressing cold.2. Feet upon feet upon feet of snow in California. Too much PAC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I got razzed this morning for telling my team how many days are left until the summer solstice and the march down to shorter days and winter! That's so funny. Each year, on the first day of summer, I remind my wife that the only good thing about the day is that the days start getting shorter. Although, I must also say that I love autumn, probably a little more than winter as I get older and increasingly dislike the really cold stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I got razzed this morning for telling my team how many days are left until the summer solstice and the march down to shorter days and winter! I love to see the disgust look on people's faces when you say things like that. They always tell me to move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 1 minute ago, daxx said: I love to see the disgust look on people's faces when you say things like that. They always tell me to move. Then within a few weeks many of those same people are complaining about humidity, bugs and heat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Then within a few weeks many of those same people are complaining about humidity, bugs and heat. Yes exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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