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Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?


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The latest Euro weeklies, for what they are worth at this point, say that the pattern relaxes & we warm up next week. 

However,they also say that we are not done yet. The pattern the following week shifts the trough back to the east & has a ridge in the west. The EPS has been showing this general pattern progression for the last few days. The MJO looks to be coming to a halt at the edge of phase 3 & then is diving back into the circle null area.

The second half of March could be wintry with this pattern & maybe push many of us from a good snow season into a great one!

 

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KMDT only managed to fall to 16 overnight and that was briefly around 2 am when winds went almost calm for a little bit - as soon as the breeze picked back up temperatures climbed back to 20-21 degrees and stayed there the rest of the night.  My snow took quite a hit yesterday from the sun and wind where I only have about an inch left in areas that the sun hits most of the day and about 4-5" depth in the some sun but more shaded areas.

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6 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

KMDT only managed to fall to 16 overnight and that was briefly around 2 am when winds went almost calm for a little bit - as soon as the breeze picked back up temperatures climbed back to 20-21 degrees and stayed there the rest of the night.  My snow took quite a hit yesterday from the sun and wind where I only have about an inch left in areas that the sun hits most of the day and about 4-5" depth in the some sun but more shaded areas.

I had 13 at my house, what did you have?

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11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Mammoth Mountain in the Sierra is expected to receive 2' to 3' of snow today and tomorrow...no biggie when they're over 600" for season, right?

I find it amusing that with that amount of snow coming, all that warrants up there is a Winter Weather Advisory. 

We get a WWA for 2 to 3 INCHES. 

just crazy.....

 

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My middle son used to live in Mammoth. It can be an insane spot for snow. He now lives near Big Bear (Roaring Springs) and is concerned his deck will collapse. They had feet of snow followed by inches of rain followed by more feet of snow and then more rain. There's no way he could clear it because it's been pretty much a solid mass since the first big storm.

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41 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It's the kind of setup for temperature extremes...

I had 17 at home. My 12 mile drive to work saw the temp fluctuate between 12 and 21 degrees. 

Snowpack in my yard ranges from 3" up to 7" with bare ground surrounding trees.

I remember as a kid living over your way and being in the single digits while my brother lived on coffee Goss road, and his temp would be below zero.  A mile at the most would separate us.

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5 minutes ago, daxx said:

I remember as a kid living over your way and being in the single digits while my brother lived on coffee Goss road, and his temp would be below zero.  A mile at the most would separate us.

Yep, some wild swings just outside of Maytown. Donegal Springs road heading towards Mount Joy will often be as much as 10 degrees colder than I am on clear and calm nights with snow cover. 

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11 minutes ago, kerplunk said:

My middle son used to live in Mammoth. It can be an insane spot for snow. He now lives near Big Bear (Roaring Springs) and is concerned his deck will collapse. They had feet of snow followed by inches of rain followed by more feet of snow and then more rain. There's no way he could clear it because it's been pretty much a solid mass since the first big storm.

There are advisories in the area for people to use extreme caution when pulling out from intersections because it's pretty much driving through open air tunnels right now. Snow banks on the road sides are now over 25' in spots. How in the world do they even get it that high? 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

By the way...other than my "Day In the Life Of..." thread, this was the first one I've ever started. Most of us have had 3 or 4 snow events in the first 10-11 days since I started it. 

I'm collecting donations for starting future threads during the winter. :) 

Lol I was thinking about this the other day. Next year you start every thread from November to April! 

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36 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

What's remarkable is that the Sierra got off to a horrific start to the season. Back on Thanksgiving, 11/22, we had 7" for season, Mammoth had 0". They've had over 600" in 102 days. And it's dumping now...

6.02'' per day......

.

.

.

passes out................

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Good morning guys.  I had a low of 13.6 degrees this morning.  Checking my wind graph I see the winds kept going from periods of calm to up to has high as 6 mph which would temporarily reverse the radiational cooling.  Not sure we have as good a shot tonight with some clouds in the forecast, but then tomorrow night after the coldest of the air has arrived we should have another good shot at perhaps beating this morning's lows.

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3 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Not as much moisture

 

It is also during the daytime with temps 30 and above for the whole state.  This would be a potential decent event if at night or temps were 5-10 degrees colder.  There is a good write up in the MA LR thread, by @showmethesnow, explaining implications of this storm to knocking down heights and making Monday more interesting by bringing the Mid West runner further south.  

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

It is also during the daytime with temps 30 and above for the whole state.  This would be a potential decent event if at night or temps were 5-10 degrees colder.  There is a good write up in the MA LR thread, by @showmethesnow, explaining implications of this storm to knocking down heights and making Monday more interesting by bringing the Mid West runner further south.  

I saw that, but gotta say, that's one hell of a stretch.  Cold is on the way out, and while a few ticks south may happen, I'd think it could trend into some frozen at onset, only to be scoured out.  I wanna be wrong, but this setup in Mid March, doesnt work like it does in Jan/Feb.  I'll give him props, and hes a good guy, but I sense he has a lot of room on that limb that hes standing on.  IMO next shot is if we get the reload in the east after the next few cutters hit us.  Its just been the theme, and w/ MJO headed towards COD, Im not sure other tellies are pronounced enough to get a big hit.  PNA slightly + beyond 7-8 days and neut NAO, says coldish but no big trough in the east for something to dive in.  Progressive is the flow.

 

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