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Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?


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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It really does...did you see Horst's tweet about being in the best forcing after 5pm? 

 

1 minute ago, Superstorm said:


Yes, should be good times around here in a few hours.

Big question, though. Does that good forcing make it up here to Schuylkill County or does it stay down there in the southern tier counties? As you know, I'm a "go big or go home" kind of person when it comes to winter events, so if it's going to snow, especially in March, then I want to get my azz kicked with a good one, and not be "fringed".

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1 minute ago, Voyager said:

 

Big question, though. Does that good forcing make it up here to Schuylkill County or does it stay down there in the southern tier counties? As you know, I'm a "go big or go home" kind of person when it comes to winter events, so if it's going to snow, especially in March, then I want to get my azz kicked with a good one, and not be "fringed".

I honestly don't know. Being north doesn't help. :( Being east does help. :) 

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1 hour ago, bubbler86 said:

@Itstrainingtime, do not look at Goofus.  :-).  It has caved to the NAM/RGEM/EURO and is now much more amped with a 998 off the VA Capes but just looking at radar it is rain for much of Lanco.  The gist of the GFS run should be that the LSV is about the get walloped and most guidance suggests even the SE corner comes away golden.  Goofus jackspots @Cashtown_Coop

 

image.thumb.png.5fcd091090a883097102e5badfee3229.png

I hacked into the model 

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19 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Absolutely correct.  And a lot of people have no memory or weren't alive in the late 80s/early 90s when we couldn't buy a winter storm.

I remember how terrible those winters were in the late 80’s & early 90’s. Then the Blizzard of 93 hit, & then the winters of 94 & 96 were amazing, which started my love of the weather in my teen years.

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I think CTP, especially the LSV, is in a great spot for this event.

Temps in northwest PA are in the 20’s with dew points in the teens. Temps to our south east towards Philly & Baltimore are in the low 40’s. 

This contrast should provide a nice boundary for the storm to travel & put us on the winning side with the best precip & just cold enough temps for good snow.

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51 minutes ago, Voyager said:

 

Big question, though. Does that good forcing make it up here to Schuylkill County or does it stay down there in the southern tier counties? As you know, I'm a "go big or go home" kind of person when it comes to winter events, so if it's going to snow, especially in March, then I want to get my azz kicked with a good one, and not be "fringed".

I think most models get the coastal infused forcing up your way or REAL close as shown here on the 3K Nam.  I think your NWS forecast of 4-8" sounds good based on this.  I messed up your locale earlier this year but think I got it right this time.  Basically due west of New York and slightly North East of Allentown. 

image.png.e67705174823fc370d4f067e256bb06b.png

 

 

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5 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

We have had moderate to occasionally heavy snow for about 30 min...34 degrees so mid day it is not going to lay on anything (Jaunary or March) except where there is already snow.  We have had about 1/4" there.  Not even accumulating on the back deck.   Wasting snow.  LOL

My fear from this morn.  Wasted qpf.   

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55 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Most winters over the decades are built on 3 to 6 or 4 to 8 inch events.

We have been spoiled this decade with several large storms. 

I think the question a lot of folks have is whether we have entered a new normal with snow in these areas, or if it's more of a short-term decadal trend.

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7 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I think most models get the coastal infused forcing up your way or REAL close as shown here on the 3K Nam.  I think your NWS forecast of 4-8" sounds good based on this.  I messed up your locale earlier this year but think I got it right this time.  Basically due west of New York and slightly North East of Allentown. 

image.png.e67705174823fc370d4f067e256bb06b.png

 

 

Cool. If we're going to have snow, then I want to see good rates. Thanks!

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@Itstrainingtime, I looked at the GFS as to why it was showing rain in much of Lanco during the height of the storm and it appears it brings the 850MB (and probably 800 though I cannot see that on Pivotal) line right up and into SE PA where as the NAM, for example, keeps it south of you  The HRRR does the same thing in mixing you a bit as it intrudes into SE PA.  Right now the line is well south of you in the southern DelMarVa.

 

 

 

 

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