sauss06 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: So did you already run out and tell all your weather forcasting customers that the GEFS shows 2 feet for Sunday! You will have the Patriot News web site drawing snow threat maps again. LOL i get all my info from S&S 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Exactly! You'll be working all weekend. Is this to suggest that Daxx is a met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Exactly! You'll be working all weekend. Haha you are right. Every time we get snow I work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: Is this to suggest that Daxx is a met? Lol not even close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Is this to suggest that Daxx is a met? He is definitely on the higher pay grade around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, sauss06 said: He is definitely on the higher pay grade around here. See, now things are getting more and more interesting. People are getting paid? LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 28, 2019 Author Share Posted February 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, sauss06 said: He is definitely on the higher pay grade around here. Yes he is. Brian knows his stuff...trust me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 12 minutes ago, sauss06 said: i get all my info from S&S Isn't that guy in jail for fraud or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yes he is. Brian knows his stuff...trust me. Thanks Mike but if you ask me we all contribute in a great way here. This is definitely a great subforum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, canderson said: Isn't that guy in jail for fraud or something? Not sure what went down there, but he definitely was in trouble. I just remember him saying he was better then the NWS and threw all local mets under the bus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gosnow Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Mr Horst saying March could be the snowiest month. Perhaps the new Feb http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/SWD-latest.html Here is to tomorrows start. March 1st. Personally I think this first one will over perform and we see 3 to 4 in Lanco tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 2 hours ago, bubbler86 said: Water temp at ACY is 40 right now so I would think as long as the slp stays well to the south no one is torching at the surface so like you mentioned before, if you get rates it can snow even if 850's are above 32. Edit-My post applies to event 2 or 3. That’s a great point. Lot less WAA when easterly fetch is happening. Now if we get a stemwinder...still trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 28, 2019 Author Share Posted February 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, Gosnow said: Mr Horst saying March could be the snowiest month. Perhaps the new Feb http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/SWD-latest.html Here is to tomorrows start. March 1st. Personally I think this first one will over perform and we see 3 to 4 in Lanco tomorrow. Thanks for posting that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Nam is not the good guy for Sunday right now...not for a large chunk of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Nam is not the good guy for Sunday right now...not for a large chunk of PA.Way outside it’s range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, Superstorm said: Way outside it’s range. . That is a bit of an old wives tale in my opinion...Nam's depcition of tonight was there 84 hours ago. If someone gave me $100 and said put it on the 84 hour Nam or the 24 hour GFS I would choose the Nam. Here is the Nams forecast for tonight but 78 hours ago. That is far back as pivotalweather would go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 I think you really can throw out this run on the NAM. It gives MDT 7" of snow tonight from the clipper and nothing from the coastal on Sunday. Based on snowfall distribution it looks like it takes the low inland enough to give all of the LSV rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, CarlislePaWx said: I think you really can throw out this run on the NAM. It gives MDT 7" of snow tonight from the clipper and nothing from the coastal on Sunday. Based on snowfall distribution it looks like it takes the low inland enough to give all of the LSV rain. I think it really looks a lot like the Euro from a day or two ago. I think much of the difference between the Nam and say a better solution for Sunday, like the Icon, is the second system (Friday night) and how it progresses. I think someone mentioned that today...maybe Nut...that the Sunday solution is going to be made or broken by wave 2. Wave 2 needs to be our block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 14 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: I think it really looks a lot like the Euro from a day or two ago. I think much of the difference between the Nam and say a better solution for Sunday, like the Icon, is the second system (Friday night) and how it progresses. I think someone mentioned that today...maybe Nut...that the Sunday solution is going to be made or broken by wave 2. Wave 2 needs to be our block. If the icon nails these three events I might consider moving to Germany. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 GFS south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 I’ll take the gfs still showing 2 to 4 tomorrow. Tomorrow night it juiced up a fair amount. A little too warm in the mids. Sunday a touch colder than 12z. Right now I will take any positive moves on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: GFS south . Yea on the GFS, that storm is one fast mover and right where much of the LSV would want it for the heaviest snow even with its speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 51 minutes ago, daxx said: If the icon nails these three events I might consider moving to Germany. My wife is German, I’ve been yelling at her to get to work making it rain snow. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 I wish I could stay in Phoenix another week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 The Canadian Meso really want to give that "I have seen us get 6 from this situation before" Horst statement some backing. Not sure where he lives but this may be right over his house. It sends a bowling ball of higher rates and forcing right over south PA tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 7 hours ago, Wmsptwx said: Lol...this is my fav post of all time. I am not saying no snow just having some fun .I am I am working on one in my head called That Damn NAM I am by Dr. Duce The Eyecon is not worth the thought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Hello everyone! Great posts today! I am fired up for round 1 tonight. The short range models & radar look good ! This is going to be a great week of tracking! MDT might reach climo average for the season by tomorrow ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Food for thought for after the storms. Sun activity and are snowiest/storm years. There was great research being done on this in the USA from around 2005-2012 Most the available information and research just diapered in 2012. I know why but I wont go there today. Anyways its a great (probably The best) forecasting tool for long range patterns and it looks like the research lost its funding to the modern fake dumb down sciences . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 20 minutes ago, Flatheadsickness said: I am not saying no snow just having some fun .I am I am working on one in my head called That Damn NAM I am by Dr. Duce The Eyecon is not worth the thought. I know bro....made me laugh quite a bit...little pick me up haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 hour ago, bubbler86 said: Yea on the GFS, that storm is one fast mover and right where much of the LSV would want it for the heaviest snow even with its speed. There's not much to keep that storm from being a quick mover with the NAO going positive and no high pressure to the north. The key as I mentioned this morning is keeping the low south of PA, which is going to hinge on where the boundary between the cold air and warm air ultimately lies. I think most of C-PA is sitting in a good spot for this, although the southern tier LSV is an area I'd be concerned about for mixing. This event overall strikes me as of the quick hitting 10-12hr 5-10" ish variety for the area that gets the best snow in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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