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WAA Snow/Mix/Obs Weds-Thurs 02/20-02/21

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The 3km has hardly any snow in SNE...like and inch SW and NE.

I'd still go 1-3".

I would think , Euro and HRRR  give pause because they like to rotate siggy lift over us. Nowcast 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice dude TWC pimped 6 inches all day yesterday.  Epic fail which they just brush off.  Sent Cantore and Sidell for wet roads and  a inch or 2. 

Ouch. Man, it's tough to watch TWC today and see those snow maps after growing up with Kocin. Didn't know how spoiled I was.

Being in this part of DC is always tough for accumulation, but it's a good region wide event with places outside DC pushing 3-4" right now with reports of thundersnow. Unlike November, where my work trip was awfully timed to miss the snow event in SNE, this one seems timed well to see some good action here. 

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43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sleet is cool with me.

My sleet from 2 storms ago is still around, even on parts of my neighbors driveway, if it was snow it would have been gone a while ago. I will take sleet over rain anyday... 

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Would imagine, get on the snow early before the crowds, groomed stuff will be sweet. I  usually bang out early runs and quit when the mash potatoes start

 

That's the plan from 3/15 - 4-15 once Spring conditions take hold.

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

That's a lot of sleet!!

namconus_asnow_neus_9.thumb.png.60f08e936553a0c537a799dc6d4fa881.png

Not speaking for everywhere (deterministically) but... radar is presently snow-bombing that same region of southern PA so...  there's some semblance of verification to that regardless of ending total exactness

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SPC HREF is interesting. It really lights up after 4z from WNW-ESE as it pushes to the ENE. Can see it in the 1-hr snowfall mean. Basically a race with the mix line moving in vs dynamics for a time. 

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45 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

My sleet from 2 storms ago is still around, even on parts of my neighbors driveway, if it was snow it would have been gone a while ago. I will take sleet over rain anyday... 

If it was snow it would’ve been 3x as much. I think snow water equiv is the biggest factor for staying power. 1” sleet or 3” of snow...same thing. Although maybe the snow can sublimate a bit faster. 

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H700 to H500 dynamics are weak with this. The warmth looks like it comes in first at 850, not above or below... Appears to me that risk is high that this remains all snow from MA border on north (away from the immediate coast). 

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7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

H700 to H500 dynamics are weak with this. The warmth looks like it comes in first at 850, not above or below... Appears to me that risk is high that this remains all snow from MA border on north (away from the immediate coast). 

We take

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One thing to watch (at least on HRRR) is that the big burst before flip has good lift in the DGZ. That is something missing in the last events. If that occurs, than it would lead to the higher amounts. That's a big IF obviously. 

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30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

If it was snow it would’ve been 3x as much. I think snow water equiv is the biggest factor for staying power. 1” sleet or 3” of snow...same thing. Although maybe the snow can sublimate a bit faster. 

Snow definitely sublimates quicker 

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Snow definitely sublimates quicker 

Sure...but 10:1 snow won't sublimate like a 25:1 and you have to factor in the amount of wind and RH before the next system arrives. A few days of 30% RH arctic cold after the fluff we just has up here sublimates it relatively quickly. Cloudy, calm, raw days naso much.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Sure...but 10:1 snow won't sublimate like a 25:1 and you have to factor in the amount of wind and RH before the next system arrives. A few days of 30% RH arctic cold after the fluff we just has up here sublimates it relatively quickly. Cloudy, calm, raw days naso much.

Sure, all of that is basic

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20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Sure...but 10:1 snow won't sublimate like a 25:1 and you have to factor in the amount of wind and RH before the next system arrives. A few days of 30% RH arctic cold after the fluff we just has up here sublimates it relatively quickly. Cloudy, calm, raw days naso much.

How much of it you think is sublimation or is it just compaction that's acting on it?

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No wonder the GFS always has a precip hole over CON. WTF is this? GFS versus 3k NAM. This model needs a fixin'. lol

congfsomega.png

con3komega.png

 

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Just now, powderfreak said:

How much of it you think is sublimation or is it just compaction that's acting on it?

With the wind and low RH we had? probably 50/50. This fluff has a lot of trapped air and the wind continually feeding low RH through it speeds up the sublimation process. I should take a core of the fluff on top of the pack to see how much of the 0.13" remains from Monday.

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

2003 emoji? step it up

They're all 2003. I've been trying to get John to do an update to allow your phone emojis but no luck yet. :nerdsmiley:

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Just now, dendrite said:

With the wind and low RH we had? probably 50/50. This fluff has a lot of trapped air and the wind continually feeding low RH through it speeds up the sublimation process. I should take a core of the fluff on top of the pack to see how much of the 0.13" remains from Monday.

Ha I was just thinking that.  Be curious to see what the water loss is from sublimation.  I think I've got about an inch left of what was 3" of pure fluff.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha I was just thinking that.  Be curious to see what the water loss is from sublimation.  I think I've got about an inch left of what was 3" of pure fluff.

If no melting 1/3 rd would be my guess

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not speaking for everywhere (deterministically) but... radar is presently snow-bombing that same region of southern PA so...  there's some semblance of verification to that regardless of ending total exactness

That part of SW PA has a lot of country above 2000' - some spots on the PA Pike go over 2500.  I've never checked out climo for the Laurel Highlands, but would guess it catches considerable snow.

GFS op removing qpf, as usual for the 24 hours leading up to the event.  Had close to 0.6" yesterday for our general area, now .3-.4.  Still thinking 4-6 for the foothills.  Overperformer might get the pack to 40", but that's a longshot.

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Just now, tamarack said:

That part of SW PA has a lot of country above 2000' - some spots on the PA Pike go over 2500.  I've never checked out climo for the Laurel Highlands, but would guess it catches considerable snow.

GFS op removing qpf, as usual for the 24 hours leading up to the event.  Had close to 0.6" yesterday for our general area, now .3-.4.  Still thinking 4-6 for the foothills.  Overperformer might get the pack to 40", but that's a longshot.

What is your pack at now?

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4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Gonna enjoy tonights mood snow and take it day by day. Its OK to live in the moment 

Now you’re realizing how to live!

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16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What is your pack at now?

Must be close to 34"+ if 6 gets him to 40"

  • Haha 1

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