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2/19-20 Winter Storm Observations

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I just took some surface readings of the Chesapeake Bay with my IR temperature gun - not the most accurate, but gives a good idea: 26-27F. Ground is still a bit mushy (not frozen) but the grass is getting very cold too - sub-25F everywhere I checked. Even though the air temperature is still reading 36.4F. I don't know how well calibrated the temperature gun is, but I've used it before and it seemed pretty accurate in warmer weather.

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Seems like alot of people dont like cwg. Maybe its their tone or personalities or they pretend they dont like snow

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1 minute ago, digital snow said:

It is the new wave in forecasting. There is a (insert %) this will happen. I actually like it, statistics.

 

Just now, Fozz said:

They do. It's called probabilistic forecasting. And if they fall outside their core ranges, they'll grade themselves lower.

Meh,

I understand it, I just don’t particularly like it or think it’s very useful.  

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Seems like alot of people dont like cwg. Maybe its their tone or personalities or they pretend they dont like snow

I actually do like CWG I just don’t like their snowmaps. 

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Sub freezing at 31 now. Nice to have a multi hour stretch sub freezing before onset. Can make a big difference if rates are light at the beginning.

Also, stop looking at the hrrr until precip is overhead or at least close. It uses radar data at initialization and generally does really bad or is very inconsistent when onset is still a number of hours away. Honestly, I've never found the hrrr that useful with winter storms. Globals do far better in general. 

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Just now, Solution Man said:

Waiting patiently 

*nervously

in all seriousness, we're in a tricky spot where we could see a variety of totals based on whether or not we get a good band or 2

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Just now, Deer Whisperer said:

*nervously

in all seriousness, we're in a tricky spot where we could see a variety of totals based on whether or not we get a good band or 

I'm  thinking we do OK this time

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23 minutes ago, digital snow said:

I'm psyched too. the deb'n over the hrrr is killing me. Do y'all read your wives emotional cues like you do model runs?

 

No deb'n at all. You are all gonna get demolished by lots and lots of snow.

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ICON with delayed onset too but verbatim it looks like it rips from 10am-1pm. That’s our make or break time frame on if we get 1-2” or 2-4”/3-6”

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Sub freezing at 31 now. Nice to have a multi hour stretch sub freezing before onset. Can make a big difference if rates are light at the beginning.

Also, stop looking at the hrrr until precip is overhead or at least close. It uses radar data at initialization and generally does really bad or is very inconsistent when onset is still a number of hours away. Honestly, I've never found the hrrr that useful with winter storms. Globals do far better in general. 

Great to have you back Bob. Always look forward to your analysis on this board.  Don’t let the Debs get you down.  Just remember how sad their lives must be to be trolling a weather forum.  Let’s bring this one home!

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3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

ICON with delayed onset too but verbatim it looks like it rips from 10am-1pm. That’s our make or break time frame on if we get 1-2” or 2-4”/3-6”

0z has not been kind so far.

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Appears my call for my area is looking solid for this morning...I'm ok with that
What was that
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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Sub freezing at 31 now. Nice to have a multi hour stretch sub freezing before onset. Can make a big difference if rates are light at the beginning.

Also, stop looking at the hrrr until precip is overhead or at least close. It uses radar data at initialization and generally does really bad or is very inconsistent when onset is still a number of hours away. Honestly, I've never found the hrrr that useful with winter storms. Globals do far better in general. 

NOW, EVERYTHING is absolutely right in the world!

YOU. ARE. BACK!!!!!!!!!

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33 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I can't be the only one who has consistently seen Ferrier come in way too low for ground truth in my backyard.

Ferrier is as silly as clown map

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I’ve noticed a trend with some of our events this year.  Many storms both rain and snow that would normally get eaten up by the mountains or be delayed because of dry air have overperformed.  I remember other years where good returns seemed to never get to us or get eaten up by the mountains.  Anecdotal i know but it’s worth noting.

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