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2/19-20 Winter Storm Observations


nj2va
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2 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said:

Yeah the expectations were high and that might distort my thinking but in all fairness this has been a pretty solid winter for DC so far. A MECS, a SECS/mixfest today, the mid-November teaser, the all-day light event a while back, a few other shoestrings. Reached single digits on at least one night. I must not have been paying much attention to the ice last (?) week since it wasn't much here, but that seems to have been a pretty big deal to the north and west in terms of tree damage. So a little bit of everything, except an out-of-season severe event. (I'm thinking Feb 25 from a couple of years ago.) 

If we can score one more event I’ll be thinking B+ or A-.

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7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Is that right?

Whomever made the forecasts at LWX looks to be spot on, though many of the experts here said the forecast was too bullish. They've been very good all winter IMBY. I don't know if you work there or what (I'm not into the whole forum clique that knows everyone in-person) so maybe your response was some kind of inside joke?

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9 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

I actually think lack of precip here and not temperatures will be what keeps totals lower. Looks to shut off out to the west long before temps are an issue.

Guidance generally all had less precip for eastern areas during the cold part of the event. Another reason I was not at all enthused about this. And ofc the model snowfall maps were completely awful.

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

If we can score one more event I’ll be thinking B+ or A-.

I'm perfectly fine with three 4-6 inch events during winter. Of course, a 12-inch storm/blizzard is icing on the cake. This winter has been okay when not bogged down in model forecasting. Not the best, but okay. 

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Just now, adelphi_sky said:

I'm perfectly fine with three 4-6 inch events during winter. Of course, a 12-inch storm/blizzard is icing on the cake. This winter has been okay when not bogged down in model forecasting. Not the best, but okay. 

The 10 inch plus storm with no mixing immediately got me to B-.  The couple of other little events, arctic air, and this get me to B maybe even a B+ the more I think about it. 

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