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2/19-20 Winter Storm Observations


nj2va
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Here's a tool I made that compares the HRRR radar to the observed radar. It can be useful for determining how the most recent run is doing with precip placement.

usa_diff_radar.png

 

As you can see, the 02z HRRR does not have the light returns as far north as they actually are.

More images can be found here https://jmmweather.com/hrrr/

 

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1 minute ago, WesternFringe said:

I am just playing.  I remember a storm last winter or the year before where that was your post repeatedly about a storm threat.  Annoyingly, you were mostly right that time!  lol

 Honestly I do not think dry air is that big of an issue on this one. I think it is more about the trajectory of the heavy precipitation. That mostly goes well to our north west into the Ohio Valley And West PA. So basically I think the precipitation coming our way kind of Is getting sheared out and getting weaker as it comes Northeast. At least that’s how the models see it to a degree 

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8 minutes ago, Jmister said:

Here's a tool I made that compares the HRRR radar to the observed radar. It can be useful for determining how the most recent run is doing with precip placement.

usa_diff_radar.png

 

As you can see, the 02z HRRR does not have the light returns as far north as they actually are.

More images can be found here https://jmmweather.com/hrrr/

 

LOL did I pay you to make this? ;)

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5 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

 Honestly I do not think dry air is that big of an issue on this one. I think it is more about the trajectory of the heavy precipitation. That mostly goes well to our north west into the Ohio Valley And West PA. So basically I think the precipitation coming our way kind of Is getting sheared out and getting weaker as it comes Northeast. At least that’s how the models see it to a degree 

0Z models do not show that so far. Don’t look at the snow maps— just look at precip total maps through 18Z tomorrow. The aim of the heaviest precip is not where you described. 

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Wow at the 00z GFS.  DC loses 700mb just before 18z and 0.5”+ QPF has fallen by 18z.  I’d side with the 3k/Euro blend vs the GFS at this point but nice to see GFS in the RGEM camp with a nice thump for DC.  

Sounding at 18z at DCA looks isothermal up at 700mb... so just barely hanging on to snow if its pounding IMO 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

After double checking all the differential equations on the gfs through hr18 I've comfirmed that the 0z run is dead balls accurate. 

Interesting.  A My Cousin Vinny reference. Marisa Tomei deserves that Oscar.  Don’t care what the critics said.  

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