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Newman

2/20-21 Thump to Ice Winter Storm Threat

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"Just when I thought I was out they pull me back in!"  (Godfather III)

I thought 4" or more was our criteria? But I get it---NWS does a great job and this storm will be happening during the day.

 

ecmwf_tsnow_nj_12.png.48bda545005ff4fcf825ba61e956a2db.png

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The NAM is rather insane with the QPF and snowfall rates. Watch the change in 3 hours BEFORE any changeover to ice. This is all snow for eastern PA:

namconus_asnow_neus_fh48-51.thumb.gif.b6de9efe6f08c093e58fe4e60b38785b.gif

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3k NAM more realistic, but still too high IMO unless the initial thump is strong enough with very favorable omega and snow growth.

nam3km_2019-02-18-18Z_054_42.222_281.2_3

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Overall looks like a decent event...better than last weeks w/heavier precip. 

Ralph's absence will end in 3...2...1

 

 

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8 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Heart of pm rush hour too - plan accordingly!

Same as the Nov storm over 3 months ago...

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2 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Big difference between the ferrier rime corrected map and the 10:1 3k NAM 12z.  Keep that in mind.  

nam3km_asnow_ferrier_neus_61.png

nam3km_asnow_neus_61.png

I'm not a big fan of the ferrier. I think it goes overboard in a lot of cases. I think that 3k map is pretty realistic, but I think the axis of heavier snow will be a bit northeast of that. 

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32 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

I'm not a big fan of the ferrier. I think it goes overboard in a lot of cases. I think that 3k map is pretty realistic, but I think the axis of heavier snow will be a bit northeast of that. 

Yeah, I was thinking the ferrier looked low overall, and the 10:1 looked a bit too high. I think somewhere between the two is a good call.  With the higher accumulations possible to shift location depending where the strongest banding sets up.  I think the winter weather watch for 3-5 is good, even if it underpreforms, the Wednesday evening commute will be bad.

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Looks similar to last Tuesday's event.  Snow to sleet. Governor Murphy will probably call his third state of emergency since being burned in November. 

Thanks for the maps and updates Newman and others.

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2 hours ago, Lady Di said:

"Just when I thought I was out they pull me back in!"  (Godfather III)

I thought 4" or more was our criteria? But I get it---NWS does a great job and this storm will be happening during the day.

 

ecmwf_tsnow_nj_12.png.48bda545005ff4fcf825ba61e956a2db.png

Here is the criteria - (12 hr Advisory, 12 hr Warning, 24 hr Warning), from here - https://www.weather.gov/phi/WinterWx

New_12hour_WWY_Criteria_2015-16.png

New_12hour_WSW_Criteria_2015-16.png

New_24hour_WSW_Criteria_2015-16.png

 

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32 minutes ago, wkd said:

Looks similar to last Tuesday's event.  Snow to sleet. Governor Murphy will probably call his third state of emergency since being burned in November. 

Thanks for the maps and updates Newman and others.

I hope so...been enjoying the off days :P

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57 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

Is it me or does this really not seem interesting for Philly S&E? I'm skeptic of anything more than an inch or three.

I think ,95 overall looks uninteresting. Going in with no expectations and hoping for the best but my gut says similar to last week 1-2" maybe a hour or two of snow instead of straight sleet...

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27 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Here is the criteria - (12 hr Advisory, 12 hr Warning, 24 hr Warning), from here - https://www.weather.gov/phi/WinterWx

New_12hour_WWY_Criteria_2015-16.png

New_12hour_WSW_Criteria_2015-16.png

New_24hour_WSW_Criteria_2015-16.png

 

Nice I'm located  1/4" mile below the criteria change on 195

Also another good of example for the few people on here that think I am on the coast and it isn't suppose to snow here. 1/4" mile north of me is the same criteria for upper Bucks and Montco, it does snow well here ordinarily just not this winter.

 

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Just isn’t our winter for SEPA. I don’t think we have been in the bullseye for anything to date. Amazing how everything has stayed to our west or south all season. Anti snow shield in full effect.

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Erie similarity to the last event with current snow/ice projections from 48hrs. It will be fun to see if it follows the same course, last time at 24-36hrs snow projections dropped off significantly then jumped again up again only to fail.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, bluehens said:

Just isn’t our winter for SEPA. I don’t think we have been in the bullseye for anything to date. Amazing how everything has stayed to our west or south all season. Anti snow shield in full effect.

Consider this you have done worlds better than me lol

 

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Do you guys think this is going to affect flights into PHL late Wed night? Have to get back into Philly by then at the latest and want to know if I should change my flight....

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Latest WXSIM for NW Chester County PA with 18z data for the upcoming 9th winter event of the 2018-19 season.

Light snow arriving by 730am on Wednesday morning. Snow will become moderate by 830am and Heavy by 1130am with 2" to 3" of snow accumulating by 1230pm before a mix with Sleet/IP continues through 630pm with another 1" to 2" of IP for a total snow accumulation of 3" to 5" before changing to ZR by 9pm with another 0.25" of qpf falling as frozen through 1am. Temps will then rise above freezing with some heavy rain before ending by 330am on Thursday. Total precip 1.59" with 1.02" falling as frozen

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5 minutes ago, whetherphl said:

Do you guys think this is going to affect flights into PHL late Wed night? Have to get back into Philly by then at the latest and want to know if I should change my flight....

It will be all rain by then airport should be open.  Would base decision on flight path -west to east/southeast flights will definitely be delayed with some cancellations.  Safe travels.  

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Thanks for the info Agnes.   In this winter I’m leaning a bust potential but I understand the watch being hoisted.  It may change to an advisory is mentioned in their discussion. 

This from the other forum:  

07DECA80-61AE-44DF-9EA7-5409C4EB808E.png

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Just now, Lady Di said:

Thanks for the info Agnes.   In this winter I’m leaning a bust potential but I understand the watch being hoisted.  It may change to an advisory is mentioned in their discussion. 

This from the other forum:  

07DECA80-61AE-44DF-9EA7-5409C4EB808E.png

Yeah - Whenever I see a Watch go up, I know at some point it will either convert to an advisory or a warning (or both depending on where the criteria for each is met).  Sterling had their Watch for Wednesday up for their CWA earlier but since we had an ongoing event, there was still an Advisory up from yesterday through this morning and then for clarity purposes, that needed to expire before the next round of notices would be posted.

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6 minutes ago, Lady Di said:

Thanks for the info Agnes.   In this winter I’m leaning a bust potential but I understand the watch being hoisted.  It may change to an advisory is mentioned in their discussion. 

This from the other forum:  

07DECA80-61AE-44DF-9EA7-5409C4EB808E.png

I always understood this...a watch is issued up to 58 hrs before hand when the potential exists.  Has nothing to do with those criteria posted above.  Notice “watch” is nowhere to be seen n those maps

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3 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Same as the Nov storm over 3 months ago...

I'm prepared to enjoy this as always, maybe a bit more since our next chance for accumulating snow may be in early March, if then. Thinking 2" to 4" here.

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