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2/20-21 Thump to Ice Winter Storm Threat


Newman
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11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

FWIW the hrrr has continued trending towards a borderline significant fzra event late this afternoon into tonight for NW areas. Snow to sleet to freezing rain to maybe rain now.

Had installed the latest bufkit and have been fooling around with it (had it a bunch of years ago so have to relearn it again).  The latest HRRR skew-T data that I pulled into it shows what appears to be snow @ 4pm and a shift to rain by 5pm -

 

hrrr-skew-t-02202019-for-4pm.PNG

hrrr-skew-t-02202019-for-5pm.PNG

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13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

FWIW the hrrr has continued trending towards a borderline significant fzra event late this afternoon into tonight for NW areas. Snow to sleet to freezing rain to maybe rain now.

Yeah I just checked and you're not kidding. I could see Berks/Lehigh Valley get .1-.25" of freezing rain this evening and tonight when things switch. Usually these maps are overdone, but any ice isn't good. In fact I'm not sure why plows are coming out to clear. I'd rather drive on crusty snow than pure ice but I guess it's their job.

zr_acc.us_ne.png

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Heaviest precip of the day associated with the waa and 700mb lifting looks to be just about thru for all intents and purposes. Just some embedded pockets of moderate/heavy stuff now. Light snow even intermittent at times should continue over the next several hours before transitioning to sleet then freezing rain. Could be another 'burst' of heavier precip later as we begin to transition. Then as per latest mesos Wrfs and hrrr NW areas hang on to freezing drizzle and freezing rain thru the evening and early night time hours before moving out later tonight. Far S and SE areas will see flip to plain rain later this afternoon and early evening. Would think maybe SE PA areas can eek out another 1" of snow before changeover. 

Just hit 1" snow here in Warminster. Holding at 30f.

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