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2/20-21 Thump to Ice Winter Storm Threat


Newman
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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It's not snowing at the surface. Alot is virga on the hrrr. See my post above. Also it isnt alone. See the nam 3k and others.

Snowing in Cape May fwiw.

True, but I’m siding with the nam and globals as well as Mt Holly 75% greater than 2” on this one

nam 3k has us at 4”

 

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Flakes here!! Wait....false alarm. Air so dry scalp got dandruff

Just now, hazwoper said:

True, but I’m siding with the nam and globals as well as Mt Holly 75% greater than 2” on this one

 

I dont count sleet so if u r going with sleet and snow then I probably agree. Sheer snow not so much. Whopper Wednesday at BK btw ftw!!

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Flakes will be here by 10-1030 but I dont think we start seeing accums until 1130 or later here anyway and it will be light until early afternoon then a few bursts of heavier prior to flipping over.

Flakes are a start..that's all I need right now. At least I know virga is eroding.

Approx flip over time?

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Mid Atl region getting another positive bust for them. Many reports exceeding model output already. Heaviest banding seems to have dropped South at the last minute again. After this season I dont want to see another post about how all winter storms tick N and W at the last minute. This season was like a bad episode of mythbusters for us. Will be happy to see some accums anyway here today that always a win. Plus schools are closed and kids are home. Happy snow day :D

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Just now, Birds~69 said:

Ouch! I thought 4pm at the extreme earliest...

Who knows I'm not Nostradamus lol. Just going off guidance and the mid level surge which looks to mean business. These setups generally flip sooner than forecast but again who knows for sure? I am going off the short range hires skew-t data and subtracting an hour since the trend has been to speed things up over the last 12.

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