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2/20-21 Thump to Ice Winter Storm Threat


Newman
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here's my crude first and final call ignore the top part, I just needed a base map. West of Blue is 3-6 snow/sleet .1-.25 frz, black to blue is 1-3" snow/sleet +.05-.1 frz. Below black is C-1". I think this will play out similar to last week but the NW will do better than last week. Hope I'm wrong and this one surprises though on the 95 corridor.

 

finalcall.PNG.79af0efd055bb896ed72b2b901165917.PNG

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1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

MA forum is probably starting to freak out....

It's a rough hobby they are tenaciously following this and there has been some melting down in there even from veteran posters recently which is hard to fathom they are near normal for their winter snowfall.  

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1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

Downgraded from a Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory here for 1-3" of snow and a light glaze of ice. 

The Winter Storm Watch isn't really an "advisory" or "warning" notice so not a "downgrade".  It's a heads-up announcement to let the public know that one of the alert types will be forthcoming depending on criteria.

Here is where they put the Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories -

 

20190219-nws-winterweatheradv-phi-winterstormwarning-winterweatheradv-phiarea.PNG

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13 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

The Winter Storm Watch isn't really an "advisory" or "warning" notice so not a "downgrade".  It's a heads-up announcement to let the public know that one of the alert types will be forthcoming depending on criteria.

Here is where they put the Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories -

 

20190219-nws-winterweatheradv-phi-winterstormwarning-winterweatheradv-phiarea.PNG

When you go from 3-5"  of snow expected down to 1-3" I would say that is a downgrade regardless of what a watch, warning or advisory mean.

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21 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

When you go from 3-5"  of snow expected down to 1-3" I would say that is a downgrade regardless of what a watch, warning or advisory mean.

The "3" (whether that is the highest progged or lowest progged) does still fit into the criteria for an advisory.  Otherwise they would have just put a mention in their HWO without any alerts and maybe lofted a SPS (perhaps as a short-fused one) for hazardous weather.  I think some of the thinking too is if there will be disruptive winter wx, they will err towards going with an Advisory.

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46 minutes ago, kickingupastorm said:

Ardmore PA (Montgomery County) down graded to a Winter Weather Advisry. What a disgusting winter this has been. 

A "Watch" is just a "Watch".   It's like a placeholder announcement that can eventually become either a Winter Weather Advisory or a Winter Storm Warning depending on whether the forecast reaches the criteria at a location.   Just like a "Tornado Watch" can become a "Tornado Warning" or not and gets assigned to be some kind of other severe weather alert.  Or a "Flood Watch" can become a "Flood Warning" or a "Flood Advisory" depending on what is ongoing (or forecast to happen) at the time.

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12 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

A "Watch" is just a "Watch".   It's like a placeholder announcement that can eventually become either a Winter Weather Advisory or a Winter Storm Warning depending on whether the forecast reaches the criteria at a location .   Just like a "Tornado Watch" can become a "Tornado Warning" or not and gets assigned to be some kind of other severe weather alert.  Or a "Flood Watch" can become a "Flood Warning" or a "Flood Advisory" depending on what is ongoing (or forecast to happen) at the time.

It amazes me that some folks have a hard time distinguishing the difference between a watch, warning, advisory. Seems we go through this every year. I’m in the 4-6 range but my criteria for a warning is 6+ however due to the possibility of icing as well that’s likely why it’s a warning. Should be an interesting storm to watch unfold 

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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

It's a rough hobby they are tenaciously following this and there has been some melting down in there even from veteran posters recently which is hard to fathom they are near normal for their winter snowfall.  

Yeah, I've read some doomsday post...end of the world, it moved N.

For them I think they are doing well overall. They usually get completely shafted with every event...at least this year there's actual tracking with snow amounts.

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2 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

It amazes me that some folks have a hard time distinguishing the difference between a watch, warning, advisory. Seems we go through this every year. I’m in the 4-6 range but my criteria for a warning is 6+ however due to the possibility of icing as well that’s likely why it’s a warning. Should be an interesting storm to watch unfold 

One thing I do make prodigious use of is the NWS glossary!

Here is what they have for "Watch" - https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=Watch

Quote

Watch

A watch is used when the risk of a hazardous weather or hydrologic event has increased significantly, but its occurrence, location, and/or timing is still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead time so that those who need to set their plans in motion can do so.

And agree that it will be interesting to see what happens - i.e., whether CAD hangs on tough or the cold air really gets scoured out quickly by a surge of warm air off the ocean.

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I am fully aware and understand the difference between a watch, warning and advisory as I have been following weather for the past 25 years. My "downgrade" comment was more pertaining to the decrease in snowfall amounts which I am not sure I agree with. Mt.Holly should have held with the 3-5" amounts (at least for my area) considering what some of the models were showing today. My hunch is Mt.Holly may increase snowfall amounts once again tomorrow morning at least for my area.

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8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I am fully aware and understand the difference between a watch, warning and advisory as I have been following weather for the past 25 years. My "downgrade" comment was more pertaining to the decrease in snowfall amounts which I am not sure I agree with. Mt.Holly should have held with the 3-5" amounts (at least for my area) considering what some of the models were showing today. My hunch is Mt.Holly may increase snowfall amounts once again tomorrow morning at least for my area.

Don't take it personally. You are one of my favorite posters because you are so dedicated with your OBS and I don't feel bad mainly posting OBS too. :) :drunk:

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2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Don't take it personally. You are one of my favorite posters because you are so dedicated with your OBS and I don't feel bad mainly posting OBS too. :) :drunk:

Not at all. I probably should have conveyed that a bit better in my initial post and should have used "replaced" instead of "downgraded" pertaining to the watch/advisory.

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Just now, Rtd208 said:

Not at all. I probably should have conveyed that a bit better in my initial post and should have used "replaced" instead of "downgraded" pertaining to the watch/advisory.

I know snow lovers are frustrated this year but I do know that last year we had like 20" of snow in March so we still have another month to go. :)

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Latest Wxsim with 18z data has flurries arriving across NW Chester County by 630am with Light Snow by 730am and moderate snow by 830am. Snow gets heavy by 1130am and transitions to sleet by 130pm with moderate to near heavy sleet at times most of the afternoon becoming ZR by 730pm  - total snow and sleet accumulation (3" to 5") and then continuing as ZR until temps get above freezing by 11pm - Wxsim has 1.23" falling before temps rise above freezing and another 0.70" after temps clear the freezing mark

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