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stormtracker

February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

One thing not to like on the 3km NAM - the intense rainband at 10pm when it is 33 degrees.

1” frozen through 7pm

1” not frozen after that through 1am

Didn’t look too closely and am mobile ATM, for Westminster how much is frozen? Saw a pivotalwx map of around 6” snow, .7” zr. 

Accurate? @MN Transplant

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LWX more bullish than what the NAM just spit out for my zone forecast.  Gonna go with that for now.  1-2 tomorrow night 3-7on Wednesday.  Personal call is 2-4 with sleet then ice and plain rain by 6pm.  

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1 minute ago, Snowchaser said:

closer view of the 00z NAM Snow depth map

namconus_asnowd_neus_17.jpg

I would use the tropical tidbits total snowfall. It is much better

  • Haha 2

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9 minutes ago, snowfan said:

3K NAM isn't much different than 18Z for the DC area. Not entirely sure what people are looking at. It's 2-4" snow with a change to sleet.

Yep. In line with the Ferrier-based SLR snow map from the 18Z NAM3. Though I think if the precip isn't as lackluster prior to 16-17Z as the NAM3 suggests, most of us can get closer to 4" (or more) of snow vs. 2". 

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26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Let's just say Pivotal maps disagree. Has DCA flipping by 16z or so.

It wouldn’t shock me to wake up to pingers.  Hoping I can hold on until mid morning with a nice 2-3” base 

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4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Didn’t look too closely and am mobile ATM, for Westminster how much is frozen? Saw a pivotalwx map of around 6” snow, .7” zr. 

Accurate? @MN Transplant

Roughly, though more of that will be sleet than zr 

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At some point I’m just gonna look at soundings. Flip time Is kind of all that matters to me right. FWIW, models were dead on about flip time on feb 2014

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12 minutes ago, Ji said:

Are we even in nam range yet?

I know you are joking, but in reality I am 24 or 25 hours out for onset of precip imby.  I am giving some of the better mesos equal weight to the globals at this point.  Most of all, I am just excited for snow!!  Probably won't beat my 7" on 12/9, but may have 5-6" and copious amounts of sleet on top.  Good enough for me! 

As a bonus, my wife and I both teach, so a day off with my young kids sledding is pretty awesome, and reminds me of growing up in Upstate NY.  It looks like a good storm for 90% of the forum to me, which is rare lately! 

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Insane 250 mb jet in the NAM Wednesday into Wednesday night...flights going west to east will be ripping.

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Rgem has as hefty band setup between Winchester and DC 

RGEM was great a few years ago so maybe it’ll be right again Wednesday...I’d love it if this panel verified even for an hour tomorrow.  

3BC6852C-524D-48F8-AE6C-0CC58C5E2924.png

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Just now, nj2va said:

RGEM has start time in DC just after 9z.  

Hopefully hot and heavy. Need sick rates early to lay down a base. 

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

RGEM looks really good for NOVA and DC. around .6 or .7 as snow before the flip. Then heavy sleet afterward. 

If we can hold on to the mid levels until 18z around DC I think u are in a great spot. I like my spot too for a slightly earlier onset. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Icon looks to blast central MD again. 

Huge hit for CMD. 6-8mm/hr rate which equates to 6-9” in 3 hours on the 15z-18z frame. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Icon looks to blast central MD again. 

MoCo/ HoCo deathband. We joke, but it’s a real thing. 

 

Eta: Like you didn’t know this. Lol. Chill’s house once again will jackpot. And so will yours. 

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1 minute ago, Hurricanegiants said:

Does any of this end as plain rain into Thursday?

Into Thursday no but some places 95 east could get some rain Wednesday evening. 

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2 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

Black 6+ 

Red 3+ 

00z RGEM

rgem_asnow_neus_48.jpg

Patiently awaiting the ICON map to come out on TT, clearly going to be impressive based on the sim maps. 

It and the FV3 have been VERY consistent for CMD.

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