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stormtracker

February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE

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1 hour ago, snowdude said:

I'd say that's a pretty decent shift south and east.

12z and 18z below:

12zecmwf.png

18zecmwf.png

Isn't this just an expanse of the precipitation field?

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Euro showing some great rates...and probably more realistic.  Take HGR for example.  Shows 2" at 10am and 6" at 1pm.... As others have mentioned..1-2" per hour will be widespread for a decent period of time.  Not that there couldnt be some sleet in the mix toward the end of that frame but certainly shows the massive slug of precip that will be pushing through mid morning.  Biggest takeaway is the juicing up pre 18z wed...good to see the euro trending wetter.

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38 minutes ago, jayyy said:

LWX has updated their point click. Little rain in their forecast. Baltimore and DC suburbs such as Gaithersburg Olney Ellicott City etc, 4-8” before sleet and freezing rain. Westminster area and the usual snow belt,  5-9” before the slop takeover. 

This initial thump is going to be wild. Someone may get upwards of 10” in a short 6-8 hour window in the elevated areas between parrs ridge PSU and Westminster. 

These types of storms often overperform. They also tend to produce snow to ice before dry slotting us, which would be optimal.  I don’t see many of us getting more than a 0.1-.2 in rainfall. PSU May never see any rain at all

I hope this is true, but we have had several snow to sleet to rain events since 2016 that have busted badly IMBY. However, so far this year we have generally over performed, so that’s on the plus side. 

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Euro likes the same area I was mentioning earlier today for the jack. Martinsburg up through Hagerstown. It put me in that jack zone as well. But I think we might sleet too early down this way. Nice to see my 5-8 call looking legit regardless.

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5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The max very clearly moved south out of PA into MD/VA.

True, thought they were talking about the whole system.

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13 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The max very clearly moved south out of PA into MD/VA.

first time the 18z euro has ever delivered

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3 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

Talking about bullish. The MAX map by them would be a dream!!

SnowAmt90Prcntl.png

Some of these maps are so weird. Baltimore is on the border of 4-6/6-8 and 7 inches is a 1 in 10 chance???

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Longgg range HRRR at hr 36 ..12z Wed . Its juiced if nothing else 

hrrrx_ref2_ma_37.png

Whoa...kinda crazy on that map..But IIRC the HRRR track record that far out isn't that great

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30 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Isn't this just an expanse of the precipitation field?

Yes. The snowfall totals and precip shield shifted. 

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18z suites doing their usual thing. Overdoing precip. 6z and 18z seem to always do this. The 12z and 0z suites with more data input always bring us back to reality. That being said...

I see 4-8” for almost all of Maryland west of the bay and NoVA.  6-10” in Westminster and surrounding areas. Leesburg is in an interest spot. I think they could max as well 

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The high is a tad stronger and start time a bit quicker on the NAM. Frontegenesis is impressive on the thump. Might see an uptick in snowfall with this run. 

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Oh man. The NAM is a shellacking. Starts a couple of hours earlier out here as well. Gives my area .5 of snow in three hours. Absolute smoke job.

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

Oh man. The NAM is a shellacking. Starts a couple of hours earlier out here as well. Gives my area .5 of snow in three hours. Absolute smoke job.

ARe you past 35 hours already??

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It's better than 18z but it's not quite the hefty storm some of the other short-range models have spit out. Thump doesn't have the longevity or the gusto of some other models. Good trends continue though.

edit: I'm out to 39 on Pivotal. It's nothing amazing, I promise

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