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February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE


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16 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

NAM is ok... has the DC flip sometime between 10 and 11, probably closer to 10...I like 2-3" before flip and maybe 0.5" sleet on top...on the flip side, it is a cold run, so frozen probably well into mid afternoon...

Yep. Check out the 18Z NAM3 Ferrier-based SLR snowmap through 16Z -- lots of 2-3" totals -- some near 4" -- here before the flip to sleet for most in the urban corridor. 

Nam3_Ferrier_16ZWed.png

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24 minutes ago, snowdude said:

NONE of the models are catching on to how juiced the radar is and how far east the moisture has made it already. Mount Holly mentioned this in their discussion and I posted it earlier. Radar looks very good right now. Definitely something to keep watching in terms of snow intensity and arrival time of moisture.

Which means it's probably best to switch over to nowcasting, lol

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1 hour ago, ravensrule said:

It actually did great a few years ago and people loved it. Not sure when it got the bad rap. 

I remember the RGEM trying to give us snow the past few years when we have been on the edge- either north or south.  A couple of storms were just north or  south and the RGEM would give us hope.... but no snow. 

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11 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Icon wins the “most consistent model” award with this storm. Shown virtually the same potential for days. 

Yeah I wish I could just lock that up. Half a foot or so with a band of ridiculously heavy snow before it flips to mixed precip. Would be a really fun event.

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah I wish I could just lock that up. Half a foot or so with a band of ridiculously heavy snow before it flips to mixed precip. Would be a really fun event.

I’m always super suspicious of radar trends etc but if the current radar picture holds to our south I think there is potential for the meso’s to go crazy at 0z. 

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Just now, PhineasC said:

Dry air is not gonna eat much of a wide area of bright yellows and reds. It's a pretty nuts radar right now. Huge slug of moisture.

Ha, yeah dry air is the least of our concerns. Radar is lit up like a Christmas tree with all that gulf moisture just streaming up toward us.

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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Radar is not gonna eat much of a wide area of bright yellows and reds. It's a pretty nuts radar right now. Huge slug of moisture.

I’d like to know if the meso’s down south were calling for the heavy storms. Interesting for sure. Radar hallucinations already underway. Not even had a beer either. Lol. 

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Rgem has a slightly stronger/further west hpc which keeps the corridor from flipping as fast. Shows the potential with this thing. Hpc placement, where the firehouse from the gulf ends up landing will have huge implications as to who booms and who busts. I expect models to increase snowfall slightly as we continue to get closer to game time. Based off of a further east leaf of moisture coming up from the gulf and a slightly stronger hpc to the north. 

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