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February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE


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Just now, mappy said:

 

anyone east of 95 who thought they were seeing 6-8 were crazy anyways. 

Yes. Not sure why people are calling this a "non-event" 

Really laughable sometimes. Even a relatively moderate snow event putting down 1-4 inches and then sleet/ice is a significant impact event in these parts. I've been steadfast in calling 2-4 inches when asked by coworkers - and then a coating of ice. That's going to be high impact. 

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Just now, mappy said:

 

anyone east of 95 who thought they were seeing 6-8 were crazy anyways. 

Exactly.  Someone may see 6-8 but likely not widespread.  Still I'm not sure why some people are throwing around the term "non-event."  Seems kinda silly to base your whole attitude towards a storm on a minor snowfall map edit.  It's still going to snow, and likely pretty hard.

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18z Nam 12k is a better run for the metro's imo. The moisture plume coming out of the gulf is aimed further southeast than at 12z. That's a good sign. Hopefully another slight shift at 0z before game time. The potential is definitively there looking at radar down south for some booms for whoever ends up under some of these bands in the morning. You can't predict exact location on that stuff though. You'd think the favored areas stand the best chance but the cities and even points east may be surprised. If the changeover happens an hour later than forecasted...that's potentially an extra 1-2" for someone.  Total nowcast. Watch radar. Check surface temps/dews/850mb/925mb/700mb temps. HRRR will shift all over the place in the next 10 hrs. Don't let it get to you. 

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1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

18z Nam 12k is a better run for the metro's imo. The moisture plume coming out of the gulf is aimed further southeast than at 12z. That's a good sign. Hopefully another slight shift at 0z before game time.   

Good to see the NAM improving (even if slightly) as it comes into its "wheelhouse".  NAM/HerpDerps combo would be acceptable.

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The models do a great job of giving us an idea of what’s about to unfold.  But it’s not gospel where the heavy bands setup/then die etc.  if the model is off 50 miles with a band it drastically changes the maps.  Long story short we are all in the game at the moment.  Going to be a fun Nowcast event

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Just now, PhineasC said:

Radar is really juiced. Looks like TN is getting blasted. If we can get that stripe to park over DC/BAL, we will get 4-5" in a few hours.

Im going with the RGEM lol. Not sure when it turned into a terrible model. IT was like worshiped a few years ago

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NONE of the models are catching on to how juiced the radar is and how far east the moisture has made it already. Mount Holly mentioned this in their discussion and I posted it earlier. Radar looks very good right now. Definitely something to keep watching in terms of snow intensity and arrival time of moisture.

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Hi All- Long long long time lurker, first time poster.  Just an observation. . . my Weather Underground Ap started out the day giving me 4 inches, then 5 and now I am up to 6 inches for tomorrow. . . However, I have seen some posts (Euro, etc) where the total accumulations have been decreasing and moving north?   What does Weather Underground know that some others don't. or visa versa, I guess

 

 

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Just now, AACOUNTYMD said:

Hi All- Long long long time lurker, first time poster.  Just an observation. . . my Weather Underground Ap started out the day giving me 4 inches, then 5 and now I am up to 6 inches for tomorrow. . . However, I have seen some posts (Euro, etc) where the total accumulations have been decreasing and moving north?   What does Weather Underground know that some others don't. or visa versa, I guess

 

 

It's a crap app...don't trust it.  Use local NWS office and mets on here.  You'll win 9/10 times.

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1 minute ago, snowdude said:

NONE of the models are catching on to how juiced the radar is and how far east the moisture has made it already. Mount Holly mentioned this in their discussion and I posted it earlier. Radar looks very good right now. Definitely something to keep watching in terms of snow intensity and arrival time of moisture.

Honest question: how relevant is the current radar over TN to our storm which is 12+ hours away?   

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3 minutes ago, snowdude said:

NONE of the models are catching on to how juiced the radar is and how far east the moisture has made it already. Mount Holly mentioned this in their discussion and I posted it earlier. Radar looks very good right now. Definitely something to keep watching in terms of snow intensity and arrival time of moisture.

Agreed. Just reviewed the 18Z HRRR and NAM3K and in both cases the precip shield is probably about 40-50 miles farther north than modeled. 

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