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February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE


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18z suites doing their usual thing. Overdoing precip. 6z and 18z seem to always do this. The 12z and 0z suites with more data input always bring us back to reality. That being said...

I see 4-8” for almost all of Maryland west of the bay and NoVA.  6-10” in Westminster and surrounding areas. Leesburg is in an interest spot. I think they could max as well 

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4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

18z suites doing their usual thing. Overdoing precip. 6z and 18z seem to always do this. The 12z and 0z suites with more data input always bring us back to reality. That being said...

I see 4-8” for almost all of Maryland west of the bay and NoVA.  6-10” in Westminster and surrounding areas. Leesburg is in an interest spot. I think they could max as well 

Mostly the only thing missing from the 18z and 6z suites are balloon data. There are TONS of other types of data input at each model cycle (current conditions, airplane reports, satellite derived etc). Maybe you see some evidence of this anecdotally - but it's really just the waver back and forth (windshield wiper effect). Nothing to do with 18z vs 0z etc. 

Looks like we are on tap for a nice winter storm for most of the area. 

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Taking a stab at something here...  Look at all the flood watches in the lower Ohio and Mississippi valleys.  Impressive for any system, let alone in Feb.  Factoring in the forecast precip field maxes out to our west on the windward side of the mts, it appears the moisture fetch is going to be inbound to the DELMARVA more from the WSW than what we traditionally see from the SW up through the Carolinas.  Suppose that's due to the monster ridge off the SE coast.  

With the fetch taking more of an arched route, does that give the HP NE of the GLs more time to "cool" the the air mass, which in turn allows the CAD to hold longer?  We typically see the SE fetches scour out the CAD faster than what's projected this time around.  HM commented earlier today on the rare combination of phenomena that's setting the table for this event.  Is the above part of that?  

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