LeesburgWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Here's pivotal. It's pretty robust area wide. This orientation of moisture is perfect. Much better than having the apex up into PA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, Deer Whisperer said: I set my bar at 4” last night. Certainly doable. East pwc looks to be a split line, as it always is Fall line again. Seems like a solid bet right now. I have about a 20 mile distance to 95. You are a bit closer so watch those temps as will. Still beats tracking rain and 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Would love to see a solid 0.3" to 0.5" ice from I-95 n&w. Don't think we get that unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The NAM is really nasty for the I81 corridor. Basically Luray up to Hagerstown will be awful for travel. Still like 5-8 for the northern Shen Valley with a ton of sleet on top. Probably too early to take anything from the NAM verbatim, but 18Z 3k has HGR-MRB-OKV with 0.55"-0.65" QPF as snow, then 0.60-0.80" as sleet with up to 0.25" of 32 degree rain on top. If that verifies, upper 40's on Thursday will be welcome chain saw weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Still beats tracking rain and 40. 100%. Considering this was modeled to be just that a few days ago it’s pretty sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: 2" of sleet on top of 4" of snow far exceeds your goal. Your school marms will get the day off and idolize you like you're Bob Chill. All hail King Ji...master of the wintry mix i prefer the NAM3...it looks like it can keep us snow till 18z before a big sleet event...and we never go to rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 With this amount of qpf...if for some reason it does forget to snow then this could end up sorta similar to VD 07 for some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Interesting to see the divergence between LWX and most of the guidance. Seems like most guidance places a general 2-4” around 95, whereas LWX more bullish with 4-8”’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: Interesting to see the divergence between LWX and most of the guidance. Seems like most guidance places a general 2-4” around 95, whereas LWX more bullish with 4-8”’. I thought they were too bullish in the forecasts for the November storm and the mid-January event. Both times they nailed it. They have had a good season at that office imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Better view for folks in C VA: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: Interesting to see the divergence between LWX and most of the guidance. Seems like most guidance places a general 2-4” around 95, whereas LWX more bullish with 4-8”’. They can change that closer. Probably waiting for GFS. They do a solid job for a tricky forecast. Don’t envy their position. Snow is easier than ice in marginal situations. Tough call no matter what they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Speaking of lwx, their low end amount IN DC is 2" and people keep saying 2-4 for max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: These Pwats have to be several deviations above normal . 1" getting into Western Md . What a firehose of plentiful moisture. 90th percentile according to forecast for IAD on 12z Wednesday. Easily 2 STD above normal. Crazy moisture fetch straight out of the Gulf. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 17 minutes ago, Jandurin said: Speaking of lwx, their low end amount IN DC is 2" and people keep saying 2-4 for max 2-4 actually seems more reasonable than 6-8. Just my opinion based on the guidance. If the initial thump is maximized, then the upper end is attainable. Not really seeing that across guidance tho, and the warming aloft is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: That's alot of moisture people...jus sayin Never worried to much about the moisture. Temps was my concern. At least for MBY. But this is a trackers dream. So in on whatever happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Latest WPC probs, (00Z based, though they do not include any of the 18Z guidance, including GEFS, not the 12Z EC ensembles). First is the 50th percentile (most likely) snow accumulation, then freezing rain. Might be a touch underdone on the fzra along the I95 corridor. Also notice how quickly those snow probs go down after 4", especially east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 GFS has snow entering DC from the SW at 9z and over spreading the area before 12Z w a good column...for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Woah. GFS looks really good. A touch faster and precip is heavier 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 GFS is gonna be a big hit for DC. All snow and pounding at 18z (1 PM), heaviest band shifted a bit north from the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 55 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: NWS has us in the 6-8 range brother. They're counting on something that most don't agree with. I figure that 5 inches may be our cap in PWC. More than enough to bring out the toy. This has the makings of a fun storm. They may have been weighing the gfs/fv3 Heavily. Rgem and icon were south too. They don’t make those maps just off the NAM and euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 GFS is really keying on DC and just to the west/southwest. Not as great to the northeast but ton of precip DC-west at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 GFS loses the column some time after 18z but not before a 4-6/8" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1.75 precipitation by 00z from what I can tell in DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLuvrDude Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 6” in DC per Pivotal. Nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 I’m telling you this is unfolding. Significant storm and evolving. 15 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 This is acceptable. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, Deer Whisperer said: Maps? TT is being stupid https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2019021818&fh=66&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, Deer Whisperer said: Maps? TT is being stupid No scale but the pretty purples and pinks = 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 I have to think that the precipitation will be a little more smoothed out though. Odd that the heavy precipitation can’t make it a little more N.E. of DC...I doubt DC gets nearly 3-4 more inches of snow than BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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