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February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE


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5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Assuming that the GEFS are still useful at this range I would say images like that should provide a ton of confidence from a forecaster

GEFS are not particularly useful at this range and in particular for a CAD situation with likely banding within the precip shield.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS are not particularly useful at this range and in particular for a CAD situation with likely banding within the precip shield.

sounds good but looking at those images you can at least say that exact thing that each is showing is going to happen...whatever that thing is.

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37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS are not particularly useful at this range and in particular for a CAD situation with likely banding within the precip shield.

 

34 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

They're only consistent because the perturbations to generate the ensembles have minimal influences for something within 48 hours.  They're basically low-resolution Op clones.  

WxUSAF is wise... ensembles aren't very useful anymore. 

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Just now, Deck Pic said:

Here is the 4pm depiction....a lot depends on exactly when we flip....closer to midday or closer to mid afternoon?

 

uWnK9iD.png

If the warm layer was at 850, that would suggest snow for Leesburg-Columbia-Baltimore and points north.  But the warm layer is likely above that so would imply sleet.  

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Just now, SnowCane said:

Ahhh thanks man!  I figured we weren't talking about Omar N. Bradley airport in Moberly, MO.  This makes sense.  

if anyone is talking about a certain site/airport, they should put a "K" in front. KBWI, KDCA, KIAD

that helps cut down the confusion. :) 

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