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Minnesota_storms

February 23-25th Winter Storm

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1 minute ago, AppsRunner said:

Still in the “I don’t know” section, but I feel decent about picking up 3” or so. Still a county away from blizzard warnings

You have a much better chance than we do 35 miles south but even with that said, I’m just not seeing a southward trend with this one and we’re at the nitty gritty now

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I picked up 0.94" of rain overnight.  It's still only 33 degrees, so there wasn't a ton of snow melt.  The gutters are still full of ice and are dripping badly.

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32 here so pretty heavy rain that is freezing on cold sidewalks.   but the roads are mostly ok

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32 here so pretty heavy rain that is freezing on cold sidewalks.   but the roads are mostly ok
Yeah, wasn't too bad when I took my gf to her grad school class at UW about an hour ago. Lot of standing water on the roads though between partially melted snow and the rain with nowhere to go.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

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4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I picked up 0.94" of rain overnight.  It's still only 33 degrees, so there wasn't a ton of snow melt.  The gutters are still full of ice and are dripping badly.

Yeah this turned into a big soaker.  Rain gauge shows 1.31", but some of that was probably a little residual snow left in the funnel.  DVN/MLI both have picked up over an inch, so we probably had a little over an inch as well.  

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Raging blizzard conditions now in central NE will move across nw IA into se MN and nw WI, u.p. of MI should have a blizzard warning too, at least west of MQT to IWD. Potential for 24-36 inch snowfalls in lake enhanced flows, 50-60 mph wind gusts, single digit temps, if that's not a blizzard then what is? 

This is a wound-up system with a lot of energy. Low is just northwest of TOP at this point. 

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8 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said:

Looks like I was wrong. Latest RAP and NAM are quite a bit south with the heavy snow, bringing it well into the DSM metro

DSM will be right in the path of this low, expect cold rain mixing with sleet until the low center passes overhead by about 9 pm CST, then S+ for 4-6 hours, winds backing from ENE to NNE then NNW 40 to 55 mph, likely to give 5-8" there, 8-12" a few miles northwest. Will rapidly become a white-out for highways in Iowa and southern Minnesota. 

Would predict 10-15" for southeast MN and northwest WI, local 20" maxes and 20-30" into western u.p. of MI with more lake enhancement available there. 

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GRR comments on the rarity of such a deep storm.  These 3 examples were all in November though.

 

Rapid cyclogenesis will occur late today through Sunday as a
998 mb sfc low currently over southeastern Kansas strengthens to
around 972 mb in a position between Sault St Marie and James Bay
early Sunday evening. As noted by our previous shift this strong
of a sfc low will rival the historic fall storms like the 1998
storm, the Fitzgerald storm of 1975 and the Armistice Day storm of
1940.
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Decided to come to Omaha area for this. Classic blizzard going on, barely see more than half a block

VideoCapture_20190223-174933.jpg

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Looks like DSM is being dry slotted now, if this structure could be called a dry slot. A few inches is advertised by models here, but that’s not going to happen if precipitation doesn’t fill back in as the low comes through

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Supposedly reports of 5+ inches already where I'm at. It started snowing about 3 hours ago...

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8 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

All snow now and cement parking lot covered. 

Light covering on some paved surfaces downtown. Bottom edge looks to be lifting north out of town but it’s not that easy as the passage of the low has the movement of the precip shield sort of pivoting. I could see this easily filling back in for us but it’s hard to say 

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APX issued first blizzard warning for my area in 10 years, kind of surprised it has been that long.  Looking at 6-8" plus 55mph winds should be pretty intense tomorrow. Hopefully the freezing rain tonight wont amount to much, power outages could become a serious issue. 

Quote
.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

...Blizzard conditions Sunday through Sunday night...

High Impact Weather Potential: Snow, heavy at times, along with very
strong winds leading to blizzard conditions and dangerous travel
Sunday into Monday morning.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Little change in large-scale thinking
from 24 hours ago as focus remains largely around the Sunday through
Sunday night time frame. Mid-level cutoff, negatively tilted wave
and attendant surface low pressure across the central plains this
afternoon will rapidly deepen while trekking northeast toward the
Great Lakes tonight. The progged ~970-975 mb low pressure as it
crosses eastern upper MI/Straits Sunday afternoon falls outside of
the NAEFS/GEFS climate return interval since 1979 and some 4-5 SD
below the mean...in short, this is something quite rare across
northern Michigan for mid-February, to say the least.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Transition to all snow Sunday
morning-midday, along with increasingly strong winds leading to
blizzard conditions and sporadic power outages.

By early Sunday morning, ~979 mb low pressure is expected to be
situated across northern Lake Michigan, gradually trekking northward
and continuing to deepen toward 970 mb through the remainder of
the morning hours. The system`s cold front is expected to be
crossing the forecast area from west to east through this time
frame aiding to spill cooler temperatures back into northern
Michigan. An impressive pressure gradient on the backside of the
system will result in increasing winds throughout the day on
Sunday, becoming west-northwesterly sustained between 25-40 mph
area-wide by early afternoon into the evening hours all while
frequent gusts vary from 50-60 mph during this same time frame.
Winds ever so slowly begin to relax Sunday night into early Monday
morning; however, will continue to remain problematic as gusts
range from 25-35 mph by the Monday morning commute.

In addition to very strong winds will be a transition from a
rain/freezing rain/snow mix to all snow Sunday morning.
Falling/blowing snow, potentially heavy in places downwind of Lake
Michigan/Superior, will be the rule throughout the day into early
Monday morning. Forecast soundings continue to prog inversion
heights around 9-10 kft with omega pegged directly in a deepening
DGZ, sufficient synoptic moisture/support above the inversion and
unidirectional west-northwest boundary layer winds lending support to
dominant banding and pockets of heavy snow. Do expect aforementioned
strong winds to have little trouble carrying lake effect/enhanced
snow further south/east than would normally be the case...including
along and east of M-33 in northeast lower. Accumulations remain
somewhat tricky, especially given such strong winds and the
potential for dendrites to shred apart before reaching the ground.
None the less, will continue to gradually bump accumulations up
across the typical snow belts of northwest lower and eastern upper
where 3-6 inches of new snow is expected, perhaps a few localized
amounts up to 8 inches. Lesser amounts of 1-3 inches expected
outside of the snow belts (lowest from near Alpena to Saginaw Bay
with an inch or less expected).

Impacts: No way around it - all of northern Michigan will be nasty
Sunday through Sunday night. Whether there`s one inch of
accumulation or 8 inches, very strong winds combined with falling
snow (locally heavy) will lead to blowing/drifting snow and very low
visibility. Blizzard conditions are expected, especially Sunday
afternoon through the first half of Sunday night. Travel will be
dangerous and is strongly discouraged. Sporadic power outages are
likely. **Have issued a blizzard warning for the majority of the
forecast area given the concerns mentioned above, plus a healthy
snow pack across the region, which may be dampened a bit due to rain
tonight (but we`ve seen plenty of cases in the past where rain does
not limit blowing snow of a preexisting snow pack as much as one
would think in high wind situations such as this). The exception to
the blizzard warning is the ongoing winter storm warning with an
icing threat mentioned in the prior section and a high wind
warning from Alpena southward to Gladwin County, mainly due to a
lack of expected new snowfall in those areas. Certainly will still
be some blowing snow in those areas, but not expected to be the
extent as elsewhere to their west.**

Some quick research regarding blizzard warnings issued by APX: Aside
from the Chippewa County blizzard warning issued earlier this month,
these will be the first issued since 2012 when coastal Lake MI
counties were under a blizzard warning. Have to go back to 2008 to
find the last warning for interior counties. So again, this is some
pretty rare territory despite the abundance of winter weather that
occurs in northern Michigan.

 

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Barely missed the dry slot, slowly but steadily picking up in intensity. Probably have an inch or two so far, hard to tell. 

 

Winds will start kicking in in a few hours. Looking forward to that. 

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Over 1.5" of rain now.  The dry slot is just about here, so the precip should be mostly over now, with maybe some drizzle and flurries later on.  There is a tremendous amount of standing water around.  Probably the most I can remember.  Farm fields, front yards, ditches, and even side streets from storm drains blocked by snow piles.  There's still about 4" of dense snow pack left.  Temps will crash well below freezing later tonight, and continue to drop through tomorrow/tomorrow night, so there's going to be a lot of thick ice sheets all over the landscape.

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11 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Over 1.5" of rain now.  The dry slot is just about here, so the precip should be mostly over now, with maybe some drizzle and flurries later on.  There is a tremendous amount of standing water around.  Probably the most I can remember.  Farm fields, front yards, ditches, and even side streets from storm drains blocked by snow piles.  There's still about 4" of dense snow pack left.  Temps will crash well below freezing later tonight, and continue to drop through tomorrow/tomorrow night, so there's going to be a lot of thick ice sheets all over the landscape.

Welcome to my world (- snowpack of course) lol :tomato:

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4 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

Very heavy snow in this band with excellent dendrites . 

I just checked the radar and noticed the yellow band parked over Ames.  The ISU webcam looks pretty good.  There's a brand new report from a NWS employee in Ames of 3.6".

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Skiing down in Welch Village 10 miles SW of Red Wing MN, heavy snow when we left with the wind quickly picking up, and stacking fast. 30 miles north in Minneapolis just barely some flurries atm. Cutoff is going to be crazy sharp. 

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2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I just checked the radar and noticed the yellow band parked over Ames.  The ISU webcam looks pretty good.  There's a brand new report from a NWS employee in Ames of 3.6".

Yeah, a 4.1" report came in at 10 and it's been heavy snow since then. Winds have picked up here in the last couple hours, and we're now consistently gusting to about 40mph. Some stations to the NW were up near 50-55mph. Ames really got lucky with this storm as that band pivoted over. It was definitely some of the heaviest snow I've seen living in Iowa/Ohio.  Hopefully we'll make it to 6-8" from this. 

On another note, this storm should get DSM to a new all-time record snowiest February. It's been a remarkable run here since mid January. 

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10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

GRR comments on the rarity of such a deep storm.  These 3 examples were all in November though.

 

Rapid cyclogenesis will occur late today through Sunday as a
998 mb sfc low currently over southeastern Kansas strengthens to
around 972 mb in a position between Sault St Marie and James Bay
early Sunday evening. As noted by our previous shift this strong
of a sfc low will rival the historic fall storms like the 1998
storm, the Fitzgerald storm of 1975 and the Armistice Day storm of
1940.

With some models taking it down to 966 mb, perhaps an even better November bomb analog would be the Nov '89 blizzard. That one bottomed at 964 mb near the southern end of James Bay

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10 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Raging blizzard conditions now in central NE will move across nw IA into se MN and nw WI, u.p. of MI should have a blizzard warning too, at least west of MQT to IWD. Potential for 24-36 inch snowfalls in lake enhanced flows, 50-60 mph wind gusts, single digit temps, if that's not a blizzard then what is? 

This is a wound-up system with a lot of energy. Low is just northwest of TOP at this point. 

Not to mention an existing deep snow pack which always amplifies effects. Totally baffled that no parts of Yooper-land are under a bliz warning. 

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