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February 23-25th Winter Storm


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3" of snow with 60mph winds is absolutely worthy of a wsw.   
7" of snow with 70mph during the '78 blizz was WAY more disruptive for us than the 22" storm we had in '08.
if you read the AFD they are not expecting 3" of snow rather backwash snowshowers.Nor did I ever see SW Michiana modeled for that. It was also issued 72 hrs in advance. Just seemed odd as pointed out by some SW Michigan posters. But thier the pros so they may see something I don't.

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Just an FYI, the CMC went south again (and weaker).  I'm pretty sure the 18z NAM will go south too.  As for tonight, the HRRR keeps showing the freezing line reaching Cedar Rapids and heading north at around midnight.  The really heavy rains that the HRRR keeps showing will be in the above freezing air.  Any icing we get will certainly melt.

One more thing, the personal weather stations (shown on Wunderground) in Cedar Rapids are all reporting temps in the lower 30s with some readings in the mid 30s.  I don't expect Cedar Rapids to go below 30F tonight.

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3 hours ago, Baum said:

if you read the AFD they are not expecting 3" of snow rather backwash snowshowers.Nor did I ever see SW Michiana modeled for that. It was also issued 72 hrs in advance. Just seemed odd as pointed out by some SW Michigan posters. But thier the pros so they may see something I don't.

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looks like up to 2".   I agree that the advance of 72 hrs seems excessive.   But I still believe that even a couple of inches of snow with 60 mph winds is more than an advisory nuisance.  May also have to do with snow on the ground and whether that may be prone to blowing around too.

..WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...High winds are forecasted to combine with occasional snow
  and falling temperatures to potentially lead to widespread
  impacts for the area. Westerly winds could gust over 60 mph.
  Blowing snow could cause significant reductions to visibility at
  times. Accumulations of up to 2 inches are possible with
  highest amounts across Central Lower Michigan.
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3 hours ago, buckeye said:

looks like up to 2".   I agree that the advance of 72 hrs seems excessive.   But I still believe that even a couple of inches of snow with 60 mph winds is more than an advisory nuisance.  May also have to do with snow on the ground and whether that may be prone to blowing around too.


..WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...High winds are forecasted to combine with occasional snow
  and falling temperatures to potentially lead to widespread
  impacts for the area. Westerly winds could gust over 60 mph.
  Blowing snow could cause significant reductions to visibility at
  times. Accumulations of up to 2 inches are possible with
  highest amounts across Central Lower Michigan.

 Any old snow that remains on the ground In those spots will be glacier. Though I do agree that those winds with any snow could be crazy

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2 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

Nearly 300 inches of snow this year, close to 70 inches on the ground - and still haven't had a blizzard warning in the past 600+ inches of accumulated snow going back through the years.

 

Is this because I'm black?

How far is John Den from you?  I was thinking less than 10 miles, but I'm not positive.

His stats as of today are nowhere near 300", neither am I.  

Snow Data as of
9 am February 22, 2019

 

New snow in the past 24 hours: 0.5″
Snow on the Ground:  47″
Season Total to Date: 214.5″
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48 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

Several hundred feet lower than I am. I'm at >1200, he's around 750-800 feet. You see a sharp change on the spine of the Keweenaw. Lake Linden is 4 miles away and has much less snow.

That's nuts... I've followed him since I was like 15.  His snow depth even in Lake Linden was always Impressive.  Usually peaked in March, and was at the most 4'.  I know his newer location is much better than Lake Linden.  I see extreme snow depth differences between here and Marquette, as well, so yeah.

Full sun and a high of 31 today caused the snow pack here to shrink a couple inches... stake is reading 54" before the storm.  I'm thinking you will get your blizzard warning you're wanting.

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Rain pouring down fairly heavily early this morning.  Temp is just above freezing at 33.  Looking forward to some potential thunder later this afternoon/early this evening.  55-60mph wind gusts look possible later tonight and tomorrow morning.  The high wind watch has been downgraded to a wind advisory for the DVN cwa, but it's a high-end advisory that may end up needing upgrading if things get out of hand.

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A blizzard warning remains a possibility

MQT

Snow will still be heavy thru the morning across the w and n central as cyclonic flow backing from n to nw and caa bring increasing lake/upslope enhancement. While there is considerable ice cover over western Lake Superior, strong winds will open up larger gaps in the ice to allow for an increase in lake heat/moisture fluxes. Winds fields will rapidly strengthen on the backside of the departing and still deepening system. 850mb winds are fcst to increase to 50-60kt during the day. These strong winds will displace upslope/lake enhancement farther inland than normally occurs. Often in such cases, enhancement will be displaced beyond the Keweenaw, and may end up with Baraga County/parts of Marquette County sw into southern Ontonagon/nw Iron County seeing the best enhancement despite nw winds in the aftn

Fortunately, strongest winds don`t coincide with heaviest snow occurring overnight tonight into Sun morning. Nonetheless, quite possible blizzard warnings will need to be hoisted for Sun aftn into Sun night where nw flow upslope/lake enhancement is most persistent.

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1 minute ago, AppsRunner said:

Still in the “I don’t know” section, but I feel decent about picking up 3” or so. Still a county away from blizzard warnings

You have a much better chance than we do 35 miles south but even with that said, I’m just not seeing a southward trend with this one and we’re at the nitty gritty now

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32 here so pretty heavy rain that is freezing on cold sidewalks.   but the roads are mostly ok
Yeah, wasn't too bad when I took my gf to her grad school class at UW about an hour ago. Lot of standing water on the roads though between partially melted snow and the rain with nowhere to go.

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4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I picked up 0.94" of rain overnight.  It's still only 33 degrees, so there wasn't a ton of snow melt.  The gutters are still full of ice and are dripping badly.

Yeah this turned into a big soaker.  Rain gauge shows 1.31", but some of that was probably a little residual snow left in the funnel.  DVN/MLI both have picked up over an inch, so we probably had a little over an inch as well.  

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Raging blizzard conditions now in central NE will move across nw IA into se MN and nw WI, u.p. of MI should have a blizzard warning too, at least west of MQT to IWD. Potential for 24-36 inch snowfalls in lake enhanced flows, 50-60 mph wind gusts, single digit temps, if that's not a blizzard then what is? 

This is a wound-up system with a lot of energy. Low is just northwest of TOP at this point. 

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8 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said:

Looks like I was wrong. Latest RAP and NAM are quite a bit south with the heavy snow, bringing it well into the DSM metro

DSM will be right in the path of this low, expect cold rain mixing with sleet until the low center passes overhead by about 9 pm CST, then S+ for 4-6 hours, winds backing from ENE to NNE then NNW 40 to 55 mph, likely to give 5-8" there, 8-12" a few miles northwest. Will rapidly become a white-out for highways in Iowa and southern Minnesota. 

Would predict 10-15" for southeast MN and northwest WI, local 20" maxes and 20-30" into western u.p. of MI with more lake enhancement available there. 

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GRR comments on the rarity of such a deep storm.  These 3 examples were all in November though.

 

Rapid cyclogenesis will occur late today through Sunday as a
998 mb sfc low currently over southeastern Kansas strengthens to
around 972 mb in a position between Sault St Marie and James Bay
early Sunday evening. As noted by our previous shift this strong
of a sfc low will rival the historic fall storms like the 1998
storm, the Fitzgerald storm of 1975 and the Armistice Day storm of
1940.
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