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February 23-25th Winter Storm


MNstorms
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8 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Wouldn't be too surprised if it bumped more southeast, seems like a majority of the decent surface lows this winter have ended up southeast of the medium range operational model consensus.

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Even if it shifts further SE the WAA seems to just bring the possibility of ice into the LOT area moreso than snow.

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Just now, Baum said:

to debate an aspect of a discussion it is best to be cognizant of the point the person your debating is trying to make. In this case the term "big river" was in fact pointing out that systems since mid January in fact have had a tendency to put on the left turn signal at the Mississippi river. I used that geographical marker as a rough estimate. By no means was I stating it had an impact on the movement or aspect of the storm. I was in fa

Noted - Short smart ass comments do about as much good as facepalm emoji's I would suggest :).

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Even if it shifts further SE the WAA seems to just bring the possibility of ice into the LOT area moreso than snow.
Comment I made wasn't about expecting more of a snow threat anywhere in CWA on the front end of the system, need very significant changes for that to happen. Wouldn't be surprised if it verifies weaker on approach and thus tracks more overhead before strengthening vs. cutting to our west. A majority of 00z European ensemble members had the low tracking over northern Illinois.

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sn10_006h.us_mw.png

Yeah so I'm going to go ahead and say that Ames is not going to see 17.3" of snow in 6 hours (and it's still snowing). But I can dream, right? 

Most of the models point to someone between Sioux Falls and Davenport having a lot of fun in a blizzard, but it's likely to be an extremely narrow corridor. 

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5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Comment I made wasn't about expecting more of a snow threat anywhere in CWA on the front end of the system, need very significant changes for that to happen. Wouldn't be surprised if it verifies weaker on approach and thus tracks more overhead before strengthening vs. cutting to our west. A majority of 00z European ensemble members had the low tracking over northern Illinois.

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I've conceded the possibility of significant wintry weather with this one.  Might as well go for the quicker strengthening (which would likely take it farther nw) to maximize the wind potential.

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On 2/18/2019 at 11:15 AM, AppsRunner said:

No matter where it tracks, it seems like this is going to be a big one somewhere. The GFS seems to be on the west end of guidance, and the Canadian on the east. Should be an interesting one to track, but I wouldn't get invested until we're much closer. 

18z NAM drives a narrow band is very heavy snow right through us but for it to verify at this point is unlikely due to long range 

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Potential for high wind will need to be watched even in areas that do not see any significant snow. 70kts at 850mb with strong CAA taking place. Assuming that mixes down relatively well, could easily see gusts over 60 and maybe even 70mph. Impressive. 
 

I know using 925 is ideal for trying to determine wind gust potential, but that is a paid product.

850w.conus.png

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51 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Potential for high wind will need to be watched even in areas that do not see any significant snow. 70kts at 850mb with strong CAA taking place. Assuming that mixes down relatively well, could easily see gusts over 60 and maybe even 70mph. Impressive. 
 

I know using 925 is ideal for trying to determine wind gust potential, but that is a paid product.

850w.conus.png

I am digging the wind potential.  Almost everything looks to be lining up favorably.  Many areas could have a period of warning criteria winds surrounded by a longer duration of advisory level winds.  Also something to think about is that whatever has been loosened up/weakened by the ice storm(s) may get knocked down easier.  

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I am digging the wind potential.  Almost everything looks to be lining up favorably.  Many areas could have a period of warning criteria winds surrounded by a longer duration of advisory level winds.  Also something to think about is that whatever has been loosened up/weakened by the ice storm(s) may get knocked down easier.  
I've had enough landscape damage.

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From microburst this September in my neighbors yard.Good times
20180925_171534.thumb.jpg.c56788c34a06758d02fcc489c86f94e5.jpg
That 6" heavy wet snowstorm post Thanksgiving caused about 3K worth of damage in my yard. I love the landscape in my yard between the arborvitaes,pines, hostas etc. So 40-50 mph winds are not something I cherish. Was glad the ice storm last week didn't really cause much damage. I still recall driving through Kentucky after thier ice storm. (((Will))) can have it all.

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18z NAMs came in way south/east, with surface low tracking over Chicago area. 3km is even farther south than 12km. Both show a rain/thunder to heavy snow and wind scenario for northern Illinois. Only run that's shown this so we'll see if it's a one off. Would certainly fit the idea of the low coming in farther south.

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