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Buddy1987

Feb 19-20 Winter Storm Threat

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Local mets advertised this as an overnight 6-9 hour event.  So it either thumps heavy early or this will underperform for snow and IP.  A few hours of light ZR gets you .15-.2, which is exactly what the WSW and WWAs are calling for.  Hope for the frozen stuff but expect the wet.

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7 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

Local mets advertised this as an overnight 6-9 hour event.  So it either thumps heavy early or this will underperform for snow and IP.  A few hours of light ZR gets you .15-.2, which is exactly what the WSW and WWAs are calling for.  Hope for the frozen stuff but expect the wet.

I really think this is being underplayed in the Triad by local mets and NWS.  HP in perfect position.   Temps and DP in single digits over western PA this morning with strong CAD signal on all models.  They do have WWA in place but I could see this one being just as bad as Jan storm in WS proper which was pretty dang bad especially for northern Forsyth.

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This will be a very minor event outside the Mountains and Foothills. A glaze of .01-.05 is possible in the Triad, but I don’t expect more than that. With very marginal temps, roads should remain wet for the NW Piedmont. This is another Mountain/Foothills ice event, like the 5th or 6th this Winter season. 

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1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

Advisories issues as far east as Durham county.  RAH mentions possibility of very light accrual on elevated surfaces maybe to Raleigh.

Yeah, as jjwxman said this will be a minor event. If we get some light glaze on the car tops it's a win. At least we had something to track. Been such a boring winter after the December storm. 

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Just now, FallsLake said:

Yeah, as jjwxman said this will be a minor event. If we get some light glaze on the car tops it's a win. At least we had something to track. Been such a boring winter after the December storm. 

Agreed.  Looks like northern wake has the best shot of anything.  I could see a special weather statement for Wake, but not advisory.

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3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Yeah, as jjwxman said this will be a minor event. If we get some light glaze on the car tops it's a win. At least we had something to track. Been such a boring winter after the December storm. 

Agree on Wake county area.  Whole different story here in the triad I believe.

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2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Agreed.  Looks like northern wake has the best shot of anything.  I could see a special weather statement for Wake, but not advisory.

As weather weenies, we could ride the coldest model until the end. Here's the HRW WRF-NSSL. It would have RDU under frozen/freezing precip for 16 hours:

 

aaaa.jpg

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2 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Agree on Wake county area.  Whole different story here in the triad I believe.

If anybody gets anything substantial it would be your area and northward. Problem is we need colder temps to make a big ice storm. 30/31/32 doesn't do it. We need temps down into the 20s. But who knows, these setups have over performed (with cold) in the past.  

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Just now, FallsLake said:

If anybody gets anything substantial it would be your area and northward. Problem is we need colder temps to make a big ice storm. 30/31/32 doesn't do it. We need temps down into the 20s. But who knows, these setups have over performed (with cold) in the past.  

You need 20s to get significant travel issues but not tree damage or power outages.  During the January storm here, I think lowest northern part of Forsyth got was 31 degrees but we had HUGE amounts of trees down and power out for multiple days for thousands.

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Just now, CentralNC said:

You need 20s to get significant travel issues but not tree damage or power outages.  During the January storm here, I think lowest northern part of Forsyth got was 31 degrees but we had HUGE amounts of trees down and power out for multiple days for thousands.

And to your point, this will occur late night into early morning (low insolation). All we can do now is wait, and track the southward push of dew points and radar. 

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12z NAM Soundings in Greensboro and Winston at the initial thump of precip look to be a rain snow mix, if not all snow if the precip is heavy enough, and all snow west and north of Winston.  Of course that changes very quickly to rain/freezing rain overnight.

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Current analysis now shows a 1040mb center of HP over OH/PA state line.  Let's see what happens this afternoon in regards to temps/dewpoints. 

image.thumb.png.9b354194b79802371f14cd92412183c0.png

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5 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

Current analysis now shows a 1040mb center of HP over OH/PA state line.  Let's see what happens this afternoon in regards to temps/dewpoints. 

image.thumb.png.9b354194b79802371f14cd92412183c0.png

4MB stronger than the HRRR. Something to watch.

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8 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

Current analysis now shows a 1040mb center of HP over OH/PA state line.  Let's see what happens this afternoon in regards to temps/dewpoints. 

image.thumb.png.9b354194b79802371f14cd92412183c0.png

Looks spooky. Maybe that's a good thing.

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29 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

Current analysis now shows a 1040mb center of HP over OH/PA state line.  Let's see what happens this afternoon in regards to temps/dewpoints. 

 

I really can't get over a 1040/1041mb high in perfect position and we still can't get anything worthwhile in ga/sc. 

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

As weather weenies, we could ride the coldest model until the end. Here's the HRW WRF-NSSL. It would have RDU under frozen/freezing precip for 16 hours:

 

aaaa.jpg

I love this model.  Unfortunately, it has an accuracy rating of -10.  Why can’t it ever be right?  Just once time!

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2 hours ago, Lookout said:

I really can't get over a 1040/1041mb high in perfect position and we still can't get anything worthwhile in ga/sc. 

I agree, you would think with that strong of High Pressure there would be plenty of cold air for plain snow.

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4 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Big heavy wet snow in Matthews.  This storm is baffling to me. 

had some snow mix in here in SW Concord near Harrisburg about an hour ago. Right now waiting for the heavy prcip in your backyard to work up this way... Good to know I can expect SNOW///and yes a very dynamic storm indeed.

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