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Buddy1987

Feb 19-20 Winter Storm Threat

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Winter weather Advisory for Southside, just to the North are the Winter storm Warnings.

I was focused on Patrick County and the Stuart area which under a WSW, but yes, everything just east of there along the border is WWA.  Either way, Patrick County is so fickle with the elevation changes.  So I wouldnt expect to see much snow until you hit Hwy 58 from Lovers Leap to Galax.  

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The 18z HRRR has some nice sleet returns for the Triangle at hour 36. But it never gets dew points (and consequently surface temps) below freezing. It will be very interesting tomorrow to see how far the dew points get pushed southwards from the north. This will be the key thing to track. 

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At this point for Wake, it'll be interesting to watch temps and see if there are any road issues (bridges, etc..) that would impact commutes and/or schools.  

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10 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Try Fancy Gap

Agreed.  Or up I81 from there if you get really ambitious.  But your time may be limited unless you like chasing at night.  Wednesday morning might be better.

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5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Best run of the NAM yet if you like a lot of sleet and freezing rain. 

Definitely had more moisture 

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7 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Best run of the NAM yet if you like a lot of sleet and freezing rain. 

 

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Definitely had more moisture 

Front end thump is definitely noticeable and more in line with most guidance. Its finally getting a clue lol.

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4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

 

Front end thump is definitely noticeable and more in line with most guidance. Its finally getting a clue lol.

Yeah, although the 3k looks good and then it looks like it falls apart... 12k looks better 

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1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Yeah, although the 3k looks good and then it looks like it falls apart... 12k looks better 

I honestly dont know what to really expect out of this storm. Part of me has set the bar a little too high but then the other part of me wonders does southeast flow, moisture transport and lift make this thing over perform and continue the precip longer than what the models are showing in some instances? I guess safe for our areas is maybe a 2-4 type ordeal, then .25 of ice. High end maybe 3-5 with 1-2 tenths of ice. Low end being 1-2'' of snow and sleet accumulation followed by a prolonged freezing drizzle ordeal. Idk what do you think?

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

I honestly dont know what to really expect out of this storm. Part of me has set the bar a little too high but then the other part of me wonders does southeast flow, moisture transport and lift make this thing over perform and continue the precip longer than what the models are showing in some instances? I guess safe for our areas is maybe a 2-4 type ordeal, then .25 of ice. High end maybe 3-5 with 1-2 tenths of ice. Low end being 1-2'' of snow and sleet accumulation followed by a prolonged freezing drizzle ordeal. Idk what do you think?

For my area in Dry Fork northwest of Danville, I'm going with about 1" of Snow/Sleet, with up go 1/4" of ZR...

I would probably go with 2-3" for your location with the same ZR... hard to say. It could be more...

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3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Rgem sticking to its guns... colder and more moisture than other guidance with that front end thump.

Pretty hefty warm nose showing up however. May be time to tame my expectations here. Sleet storms stink but they're better than nothing.

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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Pretty hefty warm nose showing up however. May be time to tame my expectations here. Sleet storms stink but they're better than nothing.

A lot better than most of this winter lol

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Looking like a quick thump of snow for the High Country and then an IP/ZR event for the WNC mountains and foothills...not too excited about the possibility of 14 hours of ZR/IP...get your bread and milk :)

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11 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Rgem sticking to its guns... colder and more moisture than other guidance with that front end thump.

Dang you're not kidding. over an inch of liquid for both our areas. More than double of what nam is producing. Now that would be a heck of a storm.

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14 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Dang you're not kidding. over an inch of liquid for both our areas. More than double of what nam is producing. Now that would be a heck of a storm.

Still icing at the end of that rgem run in Roanoke... :yikes:

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