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Feb 19-20 Winter Storm Threat


Buddy1987
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2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

RGEM is a warning criteria event. NAM is still advisory but not as impressive. 

You gotta think depending on what 12z gfs run does that the way to go right now is a blend of Canadian, GFS, RGEM and ICON. All are pretty similar in surface depiction of qpf. Then I believe you can put the NAM and EURO in another camp. 

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I wish the RGEM was correct, kinda worried , the NAM is to dry..

I 100% hope the RGEM is wrong for the mtns lol. Anyway, what does concern me is the exact same thing happened with the December event. Nam dried a bit as it got close, while every other model increased QPF. The 12z runs will be a big indicator if we are going to see the same type of result of the Nam losing that battle.

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For me the GFS and FV3 are basically a carbon copy of their 6z counterpart. For northern NC zones and southern VA you cannot get a better placed high than what these models show. 1039 anchored up in central NY. Just opening the St Lawrence Valley and Canada wide open to funnel down some very cold air. 

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Just now, McDowell_Weather said:

How good is the RGEM at 36+ hrs out?

Has a tendency to overdo cold and moisture would be careful at face value until we get just a little closer. It and the Canadian have scored wins this year though so obv don’t completely discount it just be aware of known biases. 

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Just now, Buddy1987 said:

For me the GFS and FV3 are basically a carbon copy of their 6z counterpart. For northern NC zones and southern VA you cannot get a better placed high than what these models show. 1039 anchored up in central NY. Just opening the St Lawrence Valley and Canada wide open to funnel down some very cold air. 

I agree perfect spot just wish we had cold air in place before hand then us peeps further south would be in a whole other ball game.

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3 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said:

I agree perfect spot just wish we had cold air in place before hand then us peeps further south would be in a whole other ball game.

Definitely trended colder/more wintry so far today our way. I expect GSP to extend the watch to cover the entire immediate foothill counties of Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell. Probably Alexander as well. 

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1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Definitely trended colder so far today our way. I expect GSP to extend the watch to cover the entire immediate foothill counties of Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell. Probably Alexander as well. 

Buncombe, Henderson, and Transylvania also I would bet. Henderson for sure.

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Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Yes absolutely. Brevard to Mills River may be ground zero for this to be honest. 

They do take a beating when there is ice. My daughter lives in Pisgah Forest and the number of trees down up on her mountain during the last ice amount was amazing. Even in West Asheville, we had the most ice I had remembered seeing in a while. I prefer snow !! :)

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5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Definitely trended colder/more wintry so far today our way. I expect GSP to extend the watch to cover the entire immediate foothill counties of Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell. Probably Alexander as well. 

That's what I was thinking 12z runs have trended in our favor. The more sleet the better I'm not expecting to much if any snow just depends if the 700s are still below when the precipitation moves in witch is what the RGEM was showing threading the needle like always. 

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7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The Canadian and RGEM have a lot more snow and ICE for my area than other models... I dont think they are right..

havent seen them but down here in danville its makin me a bit anxious. Yet again the curse of my bday strikes! i get a gorgeous day today for it and then boom the bottom falls out...we laugh because its been a thing everywhere ive lived. from the great presidents day storm 1979 which stoked my 6 year old inner weather weenie to 2003 and everything in between, heres hoping it stays more snow than ice 

 

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NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 14m14 minutes ago

 
 

Latest update regarding Tue Night -> Wednesday AM wintry mix. Forecast has trended slightly warmer, resulting in reduced icing and snow/sleet amounts. Still a few slick spots possible for your morning commute on Wednesday. Download latest #NCwx brief: https://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf 

DztG0kYXQAA7NRm.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Solak said:

NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 14m14 minutes ago

 
 

Latest update regarding Tue Night -> Wednesday AM wintry mix. Forecast has trended slightly warmer, resulting in reduced icing and snow/sleet amounts. Still a few slick spots possible for your morning commute on Wednesday. Download latest #NCwx brief: https://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf 

DztG0kYXQAA7NRm.jpg

What is showing warmer?? Why would they lower amounts when models are trending colder...

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3 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

WSWatch up for southern and SW VA elevated areas.  Just saw the post for stuart and it says "up to 7" of snow"...!!  I'm going to assume that means the elevated areas of Patrick County and not Stuart proper.  Anyone have a Bufkit for ROA that might show what elevation will see heavy snow?  

Looks like that up to 7" includes everyone under the watch. As we get closer they will fine tune the details for different locations...

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5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Looks like that up to 7" includes everyone under the watch. As we get closer they will fine tune the details for different locations...

Elevated areas will do ok, but I bet you the biggest winners are folks in the north NC foothills and west VA folks. This is the area that may see the lowest temps and longer duration below freezing. 

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Still a go from RAH. Wouldn't be a big event, but at least something:

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 315 PM Monday...

 

 

...Continued threat of light icing and a wintry mixture across the

interior and northern Piedmont late Tuesday night into

Wednesday morning...

 

 

A strong and cold 1038 hPa high pressure system will move into the PA/NY

region Tuesday night and weaken as it pushed off the New

England coast late Wednesday. The high is transient but located

in a favorable location to establish a CAD regime late Tuesday

that will extend into Thursday. Dry air with surface dew points

in the teens will extend south from the DC area across eastern

VA into eastern NC on Tuesday afternoon. At the same time, a

strong upper level trough will exit the western U.S. and move

into the Central Plains as a 100+ kt jet develops over TX and

moves northeast on Wednesday. A strengthening low and mid level

southerly flow will moisten the atmosphere and provide lift

across central NC late Tuesday through Wednesday night providing

periods of precipitation.

 

 

As the low level flow strengthens ahead of the approaching upper level

trough, isentropic lift will increase primarily in the 295 to

300K layer resulting in a region of largely low and mid level

ascent. This results in area of warm advection precipitation

that will overspread the region from southwest to northeast

between midnight and daybreak Wednesday morning. Forecast

soundings suggest that the deep layer moisture and ascent will

be confined below 600 hPa. Given this and the strong warm nose

that develops at 800 hPa Wednesday morning with a southwest flow

at 50 kts, don`t expect much snow although a few flakes could

mix in toward the VA border around midnight.

 

 

The precipitation will produce some wet bulb cooling as the surface

layer becomes saturated. Not surprisingly the NAM is the

coolest guidance with the wet bulb freezing line pushing south

into northern Richmond, Cumberland and western Wilson counties

which should serve as the farthest extent of any freezing rain

potential. The GFS is notably warmer in the surface layer Given

the GFS is notably warmer at the surface and similar in the

partials. Will lean toward the cooler NAM solution given its

skill to handle these patterns more skillfully. This will

support a changeover from rain to freezing rain as temperatures

fall to 32 or 31 in the damming region from Albemarle to Raleigh

to Warrenton northwestward. Given the marginal surface

temperature, the light precipitation amounts, some lulls in the

precipitation and moderate temperatures ahead of the event,

expect ice accumulations will be limited and mainly confined to

locations near and north of I-85 where a light glaze is possible

with radial ice accumulations of 0.05 inches or less.

Temperatures will moderate ever so slightly After sunrise on

Wednesday, and any freezing rain will diminish from south to

north and end during the mid morning. Lows will range in the 31

to 32 range in the northern Piedmont and the mid 30s elsewhere.

 

 

A well established CAD regime will remain in place on Wednesday and

Wednesday night with periods of light rain continuing. Highs on

Wednesday will range in the mid 30s across the Triad and in the

mid to upper 40s across the Sandhills and southern Coastal

Plain. Temperatures will be steady or rise a degree or two on

Wednesday night under overcast skies and periods of light rain,

drizzle and mist.

 

 

Most NWP systems blast the CAD away on Thursday with the exception of

the NAM. GFS MOS provides a high of 66 in GSO on Thursday and

77 at FAY. While the CAD should weaken, given the pattern and

the lack of a well defined erosion mechanism, still feel it will

remain in place longer and more resilient than much of the

guidance says. Will undercut guidance and go with highs in the

lower 50s in the Triad to the upper 60s southeast. Huge bust

potential with the temperature forecast so stay tuned.

 

 

&&

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Blacksburg out with a more refined WSW for southern VA and western VA for up to 3" snow and sleet and a minor icing event.  Sounds more reasonable but rates will have to overcome the warming of todays 60°.

Winter weather Advisory for Southside, just to the North are the Winter storm Warnings.

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