weatherpruf Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: WSW all the way up to Sussex County, I think we may finally score a decent storm here. Still not our area chief. need the stuff to come northeast more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 40 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: The 12Z Euro sucks too ? It is siding with the NAM - so how about the GFS ? Have to have an open mind about this situation until close enough to make a good call but I think this is going to be another nowcasting event.... Nothing against you but I've heard that about literally every single winter storm from one poster or another. Is every event just a "nowcast" event? If not, what exactly is the definition of a nowcast event? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, BombsAway1288 said: Nothing against you but I've heard that about literally every single winter storm from one poster or another. Is every event just a "nowcast" event? If not, what exactly is the definition of a nowcast event? It means you have to look out your window. And even then, many folks here will not believe you. But yes, someone brings it up every storm. I find it discouraging because it usually means people either don’t know what will happen or don’t want believe the bad news. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 41 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: It means you have to look out your window. And even then, many folks here will not believe you. But yes, someone brings it up every storm. I find it discouraging because it usually means people either don’t know what will happen or don’t want believe the bad news. Jan 19th and last night - expecting forecasted snow to develop and rain drops developed and not a flake of snow both times - case closed ! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: Still not our area chief. need the stuff to come northeast more. Agree I think Central NJ and possibly even Northern NJ is in better shape with this than NYC since Precip coming from the south and west. it definitely has a chance for NYC though, the NAM and Euro are borderline a big event into the city and the GFS is slowly ticking north although still way off. We'll probably know more by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Agree I think Central NJ and possibly even Northern NJ is in better shape with this than NYC since Precip coming from the south and west. it definitely has a chance for NYC though, the NAM and Euro are borderline a big event into the city and the GFS is slowly ticking north although still way off. We'll probably know more by tomorrow. We won't 100% know until it starts to snow But that snow gradient is very sharp near the NJ/NY border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I keyed into several sentences from the NYC Forecast Discussion and edited. Here are three: ..overall model performance this winter has been subpar regarding similar precipitation type (PTYPE) events, with too much wintry precip forecast versus actual observations.. ..a reasonable worst case scenario with a snowier outcome is for 1-3 inches east and 3-4 inches from NYC on west.. ..of note is the 12z European ECMWF Ensemble EPS mean probability for greater than 3 inches is generally less than 30 percent.. So I wouldn't get my hopes up for heavy snow in NYC for the Wednesday-Thursday event. Unfortunately for snow lovers, only 8.7 inches of snow recorded at Central Park, New York to date this winter.. Anyway-good luck..there is still time this winter and I'll watch from Florida :). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 The 18Z Euro is pushing the area of precip slightly more east again. As I expected we are gradually seeing models not wash out the WAA push as quickly over time though it’s been very subtle. Still would most want to be in Harrisburg for this event. Definitely seems Upton and Mt Holly aren’t in great agreement near their FA boundaries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The 18Z Euro is pushing the area of precip slightly more east again. As I expected we are gradually seeing models not wash out the WAA push as quickly over time though it’s been very subtle. Still would most want to be in Harrisburg for this event. Definitely seems Upton and Mt Holly aren’t in great agreement near their FA boundaries Yea Central PA looks like a sweet spot with this but each run seems to creep the good snow closer and closer to the city, I know theres a lot of pessimism right now because of last night but this is not an event I would take lightly given a 50 mile NE shift of the precip is far from impossible in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Yea Central PA looks like a sweet spot with this but each run seems to creep the good snow closer and closer to the city, I know theres a lot of pessimism right now because of last night but this is not an event I would take lightly given a 50 mile NE shift of the precip is far from impossible in these setups. Don’t forget the SE ridge flexing and the entire plume being further north to occur too. The Euro at least down across the MA has consistently been north of almost every other model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 00z Nammy rollin' out. Let's see what happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I just happen to be going down to DC for a presentation. For once it looks like I'm in luck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 00z NAM at Hour 30 is stronger, quicker, colder, and shifted the max QPF to the East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, CarLover014 said: 00z NAM at Hour 30 is stronger, quicker, colder, and shifted the max QPF to the East CAD signal with this is crazy strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 NAM a touch further NE with the good precip, basically the same as 18Z run. About 3 inches for the city, more further west less further NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 31 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: I just happen to be going down to DC for a presentation. For once it looks like I'm in luck... NAM gives more snow to NYC than it does to DC, not saying its right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I'ma call it a night. Will be checking the 06z around 3 am (my usual wake-up time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 00z NAM a little further north or a touch more QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 33 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: NAM gives more snow to NYC than it does to DC, not saying its right I fully expected this would come north. The trend all year has been that way. North itself doesn’t totally help us because we still need the WAA push to maintain but under the assumption models were washing it out too fast the north push combined with it is what we need 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 28 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I fully expected this would come north. The trend all year has been that way. North itself doesn’t totally help us because we still need the WAA push to maintain but under the assumption models were washing it out too fast the north push combined with it is what we need Yea need it both to go north but also to push east faster and maintain, this is going to be a really tough call. A lot of models now have the push either stopping just before the city or getting just into the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Def a model war going on now, NAM/GFS at least 100 miles apart on placement of heaviest overrunning precip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 0z GFS is no better, 0z Canadian noticeable shift N with WAA precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 17 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 0z GFS is no better, 0z Canadian noticeable shift N with WAA precip. The FV3 looks somewhat closer to the NAM/Euro/Canadian but not by much. The GFS also doesn’t see the high influence with winds of 150-180 Wednesday afternoon while the NAM is due east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Lee Goldberg is going with 3-6 inches for NYC and areas to the south and west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 We aren’t seeing 7-12 like some areas near DC might but we could see 3-6 for sure. This is pretty similar to December 2013. The high isn’t in as good a spot but the setup is close in that we aren’t near the best dynamics. We still saw 4-5 in that event and 3-4 days out expected almost nothing. PHL and ILM I believe saw 9 and 11 that day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 BOOK IT!!!! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: NAM gives more snow to NYC than it does to DC, not saying its right But far less frozen mass - DC gets 1" of LE as frozen (80% sleet), which has the mass of 10" of snow, whereas NYC gets 0.4-0.5" LE frozen, most of which is snow, but less than half the frozen mass. As per the 0Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 The winter of garbage and scraps continues. They'll just be enough future snowfall in the books to stay out of the top 10 lowest territory. But of course it'll all be gone in 12 hours anyway. If we get 3"+ then this winter will go from the worst I've experienced to the third worst. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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