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NEG NAO

February 20 - 21 Winter Storm Threat

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Pretty much anything that could go wrong this year is.  Today we got burned by some spun off vorticity that occurred out in the Midwest riding the ridge and drying out the snow shield otherwise we probably get 3-5 inches 

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13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Pretty much anything that could go wrong this year is.  Today we got burned by some spun off vorticity that occurred out in the Midwest riding the ridge and drying out the snow shield otherwise we probably get 3-5 inches 

Any chance you could expand on this?I'd love to know exactly what this means. 

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Pretty much anything that could go wrong this year is.  Today we got burned by some spun off vorticity that occurred out in the Midwest riding the ridge and drying out the snow shield otherwise we probably get 3-5 inches 

We should keep this in mind for any future events this year. Superstitious I know, but it has been true nonetheless. We had maybe two or three decent bands, the rest had the hallmark of light precip that lets you know you aren't going to get much. Seen it a thousand times. FWIW, this is what I experienced last March when areas to the west of me had well over a foot. We had 4 inches out this way. Seems that is an area wide thing this year. Doesn't seem to stop the torrential rains though...

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1 hour ago, TheManWithNoFace said:

Any chance you could expand on this?I'd love to know exactly what this means. 

I can’t take the credit for discovering it.  Like a couple of other forecasters I thought it might have been a secondary disturbance coming across at 500mb but I believe this was correct.  Basically was a large area of negative vorticity advection that led to strong sinking air and subsidence

 

CA3BC516-1E9C-4F68-A5A3-4CD22679A1C7.png

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I can’t take the credit for discovering it.  Like a couple of other forecasters I thought it might have been a secondary disturbance coming across at 500mb but I believe this was correct.  Basically was a large area of negative vorticity advection that led to strong sinking air and subsidence

 

CA3BC516-1E9C-4F68-A5A3-4CD22679A1C7.png

Thank you. I wonder how this could have been woven into a forecast, rather than a real time ob. I saw that convection last night and thought it would help push the best lift north, rather than introduce nva. I guess that's why you and HM are the best there is. 

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3 minutes ago, TheManWithNoFace said:

Thank you. I wonder how this could have been woven into a forecast, rather than a real time ob. I saw that convection last night and thought it would help push the best lift north, rather than introduce nva. I guess that's why you and HM are the best there is. 

This is fairly rare.  It’s more common for snow events down in the mid Atlantic or south central US to be impacted by strong gulf convection cutting off moisture transport but something like this is hard to predict 

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2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

I'm surprised anyone from Brooklyn has even heard of Newark:). 

I went to Newark airport last week lol

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2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Pretty much anything that could go wrong this year is.  Today we got burned by some spun off vorticity that occurred out in the Midwest riding the ridge and drying out the snow shield otherwise we probably get 3-5 inches 

Honestly this event went about as well as could've been expected, the city got there 2 inches on average and probably won't see much rain. Sure it's not great but in a winter like this it's a good event

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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Honestly this event went about as well as could've been expected, the city got there 2 inches on average and probably won't see much rain. Sure it's not great but in a winter like this it's a good event

Exactly. At least we didn't bust this time

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Just now, Snow88 said:

I went to Newark airport last week lol

Yes there's even an airport there. But it is actually partly in Elizabeth. 

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9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This is fairly rare.  It’s more common for snow events down in the mid Atlantic or south central US to be impacted by strong gulf convection cutting off moisture transport but something like this is hard to predict 

That particular cause may be rare; I can assure you subsidence is certainly not rare round my neighborhood. It's an ongoing theme, storm after storm. Guess everyone got a taste of it this time.

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15 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Thoughts on Upton's forecast map this morning now? They seem to be going a lot higher now than what you were saying yesterday. Looks like they got their info straight now. Thoughts? :whistle:

Karma. 1-2 inches total for the entire NYC metro area. I barely got 1.5” up here, less for NYC. Looks like I was right. :-) Pouring rain for the last 2 hours and lots of melt with the little that fell. I was just outside doing an Irish square dance in the rain, it’s a beautiful, wonderful thing 

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12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Karma. 1-2 inches total for the entire NYC metro area. I barely got 1.5” up here, less for NYC. Looks like I was right. :-) Pouring rain for the last 2 hours and lots of melt with the little that fell. I was just outside doing an Irish square dance in the rain, it’s a beautiful, wonderful thing 

All the local forecast verified for the city. Not sure why Upton was a bit on the higher side but they weren't off by much. If they forecasted a foot of snow and we got 10 inches, no one would be nit picking 

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7 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

All the local forecast verified for the city. Not sure why Upton was a bit on the higher side but they weren't off by much. If they forecasted a foot of snow and we got 10 inches, no one would be nit picking 

Upton verifies fine in all likelihood if the subsistent zone doesn’t come across.  The radar looked very good til that occurred and it’s hard to believe we don’t get 3-5 inches if that doesn’t happen  

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Karma. 1-2 inches total for the entire NYC metro area. I barely got 1.5” up here, less for NYC. Looks like I was right. :-) Pouring rain for the last 2 hours and lots of melt with the little that fell. I was just outside doing an Irish square dance in the rain, it’s a beautiful, wonderful thing 

 

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Upton verifies fine in all likelihood if the subsistent zone doesn’t come across.  The radar looked very good til that occurred and it’s hard to believe we don’t get 3-5 inches if that doesn’t happen  

This.....

On another note, this thing is going to overperform here on the water in Boston. 1" down with a heavy, filled-in radar back to the SW.

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And now it's back to tiny flakes. They're literally just sliding off things and collecting in the low points as they get blown around by just the slightest breeze. I might get lucky soon though, it's up to 31 on a south wind so it will probably only be a short time before it goes to just rain. We'll see how much that accretes on already frozen surfaces before it starts to melt off.

 

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Wasn't a total bust here, had about 2". It's not compacted down to 1.5" with the sleet and Freezing rain, but it was a decent storm. Made it too icy for me to go to work and tutor this afternoon, had to move the session to Friday. 

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Freezing rain continues out this way; looks like more ice accretion than last storm...should be fun digging the driveway out in the morning. Temp has risen to 30. 

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