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February 20 - 21 Winter Storm Threat


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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I think if anyone in this sub-forum gets over 4” it’s going to be in places like Morristown, Somerset, Hackettstown, etc. Basically Warren, Morris, Sussex and Western Passaic. I think most of NY is too far North and East. 

The snowfall map predictions with this storm are pretty weird, there haven't been many storms that were like that.  SW Long Island will see more snow than NE Long Island- reminds me of the early Feb 2010 event, but a different way to get there.

 

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NWS in Philly and NYC upped the snowfall forecasts for most of the advisory counties in CNJ, NNJ, NE NJ, NYC, and the Hudson Valley from 1-3" to 2-4".  Always thought 1-3" was too low.  Snowfall maps reflect significant increases vs. yesterday afternoon's, with many locations predicted to be right at 4" (makes me wonder why the advisories in many places aren't for 3-5").  Nice. 

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter weather advisory

StormTotalSnow.png

 

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

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Good Wednesday morning Feb 20,  Two of these graphics are posted for look back tomorrow to see if they were any good. The last, to see if indeed the storm track shifts southeastward (still fast movers), and that the frigid air in Montana and occasionally the upper Midwest this month, sends a portion into the northeast. This latter is the NAEFS.  The first-top graphic is the HRRRX and information not yet operational. It has potential but also varies at times. Imperfect but what it shows for accumulation from 06z/20-07z/21 is imo, I think reasonable unless others here see flaws ( I do think it has ridges high bias).   Legend along the bottom should help.  The middle graphic is the WPC ensemble probability for more than 2" of snow today.  Legend lower left again with the probs.  Biggest chance...s Central PA. 649A/20. 

Screen Shot 2019-02-20 at 6.06.13 AM.png

Screen Shot 2019-02-20 at 5.27.59 AM.png

Screen Shot 2019-02-20 at 4.37.52 AM.png

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10 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

NWS in Philly and NYC upped the snowfall forecasts for most of the advisory counties in CNJ, NNJ, NE NJ, NYC, and the Hudson Valley from 1-3" to 2-4".  Always thought 1-3" was too low.  Snowfall maps reflect significant increases vs. yesterday afternoon's, with many locations predicted to be right at 4" (makes me wonder why the advisories in many places aren't for 3-5").  Nice. 

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter weather advisory

StormTotalSnow.png

 

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

That's an insane forecast for NYC, its like they have absolutely no memory and completely forgot their massive busts on every storm this winter.  This is the same pattern and another cutter.  NYC is NOT getting 4 inches of snow.  The PATTERN does not support this!  Maybe 1 inch of snow to rain and I'm worried that is high.  Very easily could be a few flakes going quickly to sleet than rain.  Last storm I went with zero snow while they had inches.  The soundings are horrid and snow growth very poor.  You have a dying band of snow/sneet which will be outrunning it's own dynamics, there is nothing good about the setup.

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1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

That's an insane forecast for NYC, its like they have absolutely no memory and completely forgot their massive busts on every storm this winter.  This is the same pattern and another cutter.  NYC is NOT getting 4 inches of snow.  The PATTERN does not support this!  Maybe 1 inch of snow to rain and I'm worried that is high.  Very easily could be a few flakes going quickly to sleet than rain.

This is a weak cutter with alot of cold air

 Ever heard of a front end thump ?

Radar looks very good 

I like 1-3 for NYC with potential for more.

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3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

That's an insane forecast for NYC, its like they have absolutely no memory and completely forgot their massive busts on every storm this winter.  This is the same pattern and another cutter.  NYC is NOT getting 4 inches of snow.  The PATTERN does not support this!  Maybe 1 inch of snow to rain and I'm worried that is high.  Very easily could be a few flakes going quickly to sleet than rain.

Going with persistence huh? Explain to the masses how the pattern doesn’t support this? Unless dry air wins out this is supportive of a 2-4” snowfall before mixing. Much better airmass this time around 

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4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

That's an insane forecast for NYC, its like they have absolutely no memory and completely forgot their massive busts on every storm this winter.  This is the same pattern and another cutter.  NYC is NOT getting 4 inches of snow.  The PATTERN does not support this!  Maybe 1 inch of snow to rain and I'm worried that is high.  Very easily could be a few flakes going quickly to sleet than rain.

2-4" might be slightly high for NYC; 1-3" might be a better call, but no model is showing <1" and some are showing 2-4", including the Euro, so <1" is not a realistic forecast.  

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8 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

That's an insane forecast for NYC, its like they have absolutely no memory and completely forgot their massive busts on every storm this winter.  This is the same pattern and another cutter.  NYC is NOT getting 4 inches of snow.  The PATTERN does not support this!  Maybe 1 inch of snow to rain and I'm worried that is high.  Very easily could be a few flakes going quickly to sleet than rain.  Last storm I went with zero snow while they had inches.  The soundings are horrid and snow growth very poor.  You have a dying band of snow/sneet which will be outrunning it's own dynamics, there is nothing good about the setup.

Dude give it a rest.... we know where you stand with literally every storm! My advice is go troll on another board. 

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13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

What? 1-3 inches is more than reasonable for tomorrow. 2 inch per hour rates? Stop, nothing supports that. Before you go criticizing Upton and Mt. Holly for their forecasts, you need to get your info straight. No one in the metro is getting 6 inches out of this and very likely not any more than 3 inches at the most. As to your other post, this is a completely, totally different setup and storm than November, like not even remotely close, besides the time of day

Thoughts on Upton's forecast map this morning now? They seem to be going a lot higher now than what you were saying yesterday. Looks like they got their info straight now. Thoughts? :whistle:

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13 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The precip is advancing pretty good on radar and getting closer. This might come in earlier which would be good.

I like 1-3 but wouldn't be shocked to see slightly more. Depends how quickly it falls.

Also depends on where the heavier banding sets up, currently this looks to be from C NJ on west. 

It'll be close for NYC.

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30 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Going with persistence huh? Explain to the masses how the pattern doesn’t support this? Unless dry air wins out this is supportive of a 2-4” snowfall before mixing. Much better airmass this time around 

Unfortunately that is the concern for today, dry air breaking up the precip is the issue, not really concerned about temps until after dark. The danger is the precip breaking up before it gets to the city which it will to an extent but hopefully not completely. Overall I'd say 1-3 inches for the city seems like the best bet. 

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4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

You can tell by the lack of posts the NAM, 3k NAM are less than impressive hoping we can squeeze 2 inches out of this. If we can get a decent band maybe 3". Fingers crossed we can saturate quickly.

The NAM is verifying poorly right now.  It has no snow in PHL til 16Z and they’ve been snowing for close to a half hour.  It’s much too slow on the advancement of the snow 

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5 hours ago, qg_omega said:

That's an insane forecast for NYC, its like they have absolutely no memory and completely forgot their massive busts on every storm this winter.  This is the same pattern and another cutter.  NYC is NOT getting 4 inches of snow.  The PATTERN does not support this!  Maybe 1 inch of snow to rain and I'm worried that is high.  Very easily could be a few flakes going quickly to sleet than rain.  Last storm I went with zero snow while they had inches.  The soundings are horrid and snow growth very poor.  You have a dying band of snow/sneet which will be outrunning it's own dynamics, there is nothing good about the setup.

NYC is already at an inch. I guess it's suppose to stop immediately? Asking for a friend.  

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