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February 20 - 21 Winter Storm Threat


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3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

My new favorite table/graphic...for Newark, LaGuardia and Philly.  Between the American models, the Euro and CMC, I'm not seeing any models with frozen LE <0.3" right now for most of the Philly-NYC region and most have 0.5"+ frozen LE, as snow+sleet; note that maps of the CMC don't show sleet, but soundings show a decent amount of sleet (~0.3" LE as sleet) in addition to the 1-3 of snow that model is showing.  And most of this falls between about noon and 6 pm after everyone gets to work.  Sound familiar?  

 

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Did your schools announce an early dismissal yet? Many have. Don't want a repeat of last Nov, and they day counts as a full instructional day ( no lunch ).

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

What? 1-3 inches is more than reasonable for tomorrow. 2 inch per hour rates? Stop, nothing supports that. Before you go criticizing Upton and Mt. Holly for their forecasts, you need to get your info straight. No one in the metro is getting 6 inches out of this and very likely not any more than 3 inches at the most. As to your other post, this is a completely, totally different setup and storm than November, like not even remotely close, besides the time of day

I think you're blinded by your anti-snow bias. 3-6" is a good call, a lot of forecasts suggest this. 

Snow will come in like a wall.

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9 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Did your schools announce an early dismissal yet? Many have. Don't want a repeat of last Nov, and they day counts as a full instructional day ( no lunch ).

Not yet, but for years, I've been providing the Metuchen schools with info on winter weather (my best friend used to be asst. superintendent and I still know a lot of folks affiliated with the schools).  They usually wait until 5 am or so, unless it's a slam dunk coming snowmageddon or an overnight storm.  I think they'll let out early (I give info, I don't make recommendations, per se).  

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14 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Not yet, but for years, I've been providing the Metuchen schools with info on winter weather (my best friend used to be asst. superintendent and I still know a lot of folks affiliated with the schools).  They usually wait until 5 am or so, unless it's a slam dunk coming snowmageddon or an overnight storm.  I think they'll let out early (I give info, I don't make recommendations, per se).  

I see. Given that ours already made the call, it's likely others in the area will follow suit. We had too many kids stuck in Nov. Course my son's first class is a lab at 2:15 at Rutgers, but if things look bad they might cancel pm classes. When  I was there decades ago they almost never closed. But then, the weather wasn't as bad.

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21 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

While thats not really what our area wants to see the HRRR did a  good job with the last storm

That could easily end up further north, it's a common trend as we get close to the event. 

HRRR isn't very reliable outside of 8 hours though but it does support the 1-2" hourly max rates.

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8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I would feel pretty good now near NYC.  The tendency is for banding to end up somewhat north of where it’s shown.  Most of the models show it just south of the metro

I'm thinking 1-2 inches followed by some sleet/ possibly brief ZR and then some rain. In this winter it's not terrible. 

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6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I would feel pretty good now near NYC.  The tendency is for banding to end up somewhat north of where it’s shown.  Most of the models show it just south of the metro

Thanks for you input here and your reasoned responses. Much of the jargon here is over my head; I'm in a whole different kind of work. I just met a former student who wants to go into meteorology at Kean; he gets this stuff a lot better than me. Kean, I hear, has a decent undergrad program.

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52 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

While thats not really what our area wants to see the HRRR did a  good job with the last storm

That's not correct. HRRR was the model that busted terribly with the last storm. Remember everyone here kept commenting that HRRR was the coldest and showed NYC getting 2 inches of snow. NAM was warmest and said no snow for NYC and only for well north of NYC. Most of the area ended up getting no snow accumulation.  NAM did best with the last storm and HRRR was the worst.

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11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

That's not correct. HRRR was the model that busted terribly with the last storm. Remember everyone here kept commenting that HRRR was the coldest and showed NYC getting 2 inches of snow. NAM was warmest and said no snow for NYC and only for well north of NYC. Most of the area ended up getting no snow accumulation.  NAM did best with the last storm and HRRR was the worst.

i guess its depends where and how many hours out. I know the NAM was projecting 4-6 inches of snow in the HV and the HRRR was the one that really showed the precip shearing out. Temps were sort of the issue for the city with that one but the even bigger issue for the area as a whole was lack of qpf.  

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28 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

That's not correct. HRRR was the model that busted terribly with the last storm. Remember everyone here kept commenting that HRRR was the coldest and showed NYC getting 2 inches of snow. NAM was warmest and said no snow for NYC and only for well north of NYC. Most of the area ended up getting no snow accumulation.  NAM did best with the last storm and HRRR was the worst.

Agreed. The HRRR showed 2 inches of snow the other night when it had already started as rain

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25 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

i guess its depends where and how many hours out. I know the NAM was projecting 4-6 inches of snow in the HV and the HRRR was the one that really showed the precip shearing out. Temps were sort of the issue for the city with that one but the even bigger issue for the area as a whole was lack of qpf.  

I don't think there was a clear winner regarding QPF in the last storm. Liquid equivalent in far northern areas (central Ulster and Dutchess into northern CT) verified quite a bit closer to the NAM than the HRRR. Both models struggled with the tenacity of the dry slot/subsidence south of 84.

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I’m not a huge fan of this storm. At 500mb we’re DOA. All of the precip is thermally driven, and intitially the cold, dry air holds all the way down into VA. Unfortunately as the afternoon goes on, the high weakens and pulls East. So precip rates weaken as everything pushes NE. What looks like a blossoming snow shield over Northern VA and MD in the morning might fall apart some by the time it makes it up here. Once all the cold air is gone, the precip will stop. It is possible the that the cold hair hangs tough a little longer than forecasted, and I think we’ll see a 3-5 hour period of moderate snow, but the main target area is the I-81 corridor.

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3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I agree with you on everything you posted. I think only areas who see 4-6 are south and west of city. 

I think if anyone in this sub-forum gets over 4” it’s going to be in places like Morristown, Somerset, Hackettstown, etc. Basically Warren, Morris, Sussex and Western Passaic. I think most of NY is too far North and East. 

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