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February 20 - 21 Winter Storm Threat


NEG NAO
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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The winter of garbage and scraps continues.

They'll just be enough future snowfall in the books to stay out of the top 10 lowest territory.

But of course it'll all be gone in 12 hours anyway. If we get 3"+ then this winter will go from the worst I've experienced to the third worst. 

Take any snow you can get

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A couple of ensemble probability posts for tomorrows event.  Big QPF and asstd bigger snowfall peels east somewhere near I80.  00z/19 EPS further N than 0z6/19 GEFS. 03z/19 SREF not that promising for NYC but i suspect 2-3" before the change to sleet etc.  This is what I used for one of my local friend posts this morning.  These probabilities can temper enthusiasm but are good AI checks against hope. Let the reality check occur by 6P Wednesday. 

Screen Shot 2019-02-19 at 5.38.31 AM.png

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Gonna go with based on what I've seen from yesterday, between 1-4" for my area. I think areas west of the GSP towards Manchester get closer to the 3-4". East of the GSP get around 2", and the barrier islands get around 1, maybe 2".

I'm concerned that we may get a prolonged freezing rain or sleet event. Think that the cold is going to hold on longer at the surface

 

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28 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nam is further north with the precip and quicker

Few inches for the city

It continues to shear out the system later and later and we are seeing the usual north push this year.  This time we started off far enough north that it works in our favor.  There’s going to be some sort of banding with this as well in all likelihood as there usually is on the northern side of a snow shield in these setups.  I’m becoming increasingly confident we could see 3-4 inches or more.  

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Nice improvements on the 12Z Euro: 4-6" for most of CNJ/E PA and 3-4" for NYC/NE NJ (in Upton's CWA).   4" line runs from the NW Warren/Sussex border down to midtown Manhattan and then to JFK, roughly; a 2nd 4" line runs from about Baltimore to Wilmington and then over to about LBI, with everything in between those lines in the 4-6" swath in NJ and PA all the way out to Central PA (where it eventually gets to 6-8").  Like it.  3" line runs from about Middletown, NY to Stamford, CT and down to about Brookhaven, LI.  As modeled.  

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