MJO812 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Winter storm watches are up for parts of the Mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 9 hours ago, Snow88 said: We want the precip to come up faster before the cold air goes away. The high is in the wrong spot on every model. Thats not the issue. This is a snow to rain event. Cmc looks good for CNJ I meant the HP is in the wrong spot if you want an all frozen event - of course I knew this is a snow/ice to rain event ………….I agree with Snow Goose that the modeling is incorrect regarding the cold air - also the colder air is going to be more dense this time around last night was borderline at best across most of the area…... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, SnowFreak2000 said: Nam has been trending the heaviest snow event for Wednesday further north. Hitting our area down to about philly. Miid Atlantic switches to rain right away. And nam has heavy snow to sleet and moves out pretty much right away. 06Z NAM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 06Z NAM That's a darn good look, would be he event of the winter for sure. Half of that would be. Unless it is counting sleet as snow. Still would be a good result. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 18 minutes ago, SnowFreak2000 said: Nam has been trending the heaviest snow event for Wednesday further north. Hitting our area down to about philly. Miid Atlantic switches to rain right away. And nam has heavy snow to sleet and moves out pretty much right away. If that's true a lot of folks down there will be disappointed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: If that's true a lot of folks down there will be disappointed. Climatology suggests they may be disappointed this time around - areas to the north are favored...…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 32 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Climatology suggests they may be disappointed this time around - areas to the north are favored...…. Do you think the models are wrong this close to the event for areas down south ? Alot of areas are under a winter storm watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Do you think the models are wrong thus close to the event for areas down south ? Alot of areas are under a winter storm watch. Remember when we were under a Heavy Snow Warning in January 2008 lol. I still dont see this as a big event for us, but we've already had an event where 1-2" was predicted and we received 4-7" before it changed to rain in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Standard NAM 12z total snowfall thru 72hrs 3k NAM thru 60hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Remember when we were under a Heavy Snow Warning in January 2008 lol. I still dont see this as a big event for us, but we've already had an event where 1-2" was predicted and we received 4-7" before it changed to rain in November. That bust was horrendous Forecasted to get 6-12 inches. I didn't even get 1 flake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: That bust was horrendous Forecasted to get 6-12 inches. I didn't even get 1 flake. We had a weird orb of snow here that gave us 1-2" while it was raining north, south, west and east of here lol. People driving through mentioned that it was weird how there was a little snowcover here while it was raining everywhere else. It didn't last long though- a lot like an early spring event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Remember when we were under a Heavy Snow Warning in January 2008 lol. I still dont see this as a big event for us, but we've already had an event where 1-2" was predicted and we received 4-7" before it changed to rain in November. you talking about this one ? http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2008/17-Jan-08.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 ESRL ENS 72 hrs https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f072_us.html butter the toast???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Doorman said: ESRL ENS 72 hrs https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f072_us.html butter the toast???? is that a new weather term ? > "butter the toast" Thing I don't like about Wednesdays event is Thursday it might break 50 degrees and we end up with bare ground quickly ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Would like to see a model other than the just NAM come on board, the way this winter has gone A. I'd rather be needing a north trend and would in some sense think our area is in a good spot for this B. I also would not be surprised to see DC to SNJ see 6+ inches and we see nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Would like to see a model other than the just NAM come on board, the way this winter has gone A. I'd rather be needing a north trend and would in some sense think our area is in a good spot for this B. I also would not be surprised to see DC to SNJ see 6+ inches and we see nothing Nothing would surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: is that a new weather term ? > "butter the toast" Thing I don't like about Wednesdays event is Thursday it might break 50 degrees and we end up with bare ground quickly ! I guess it means the storm is toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: is that a new weather term ? > "butter the toast" Thing I don't like about Wednesdays event is Thursday it might break 50 degrees and we end up with bare ground quickly ! The NAM doesn't have the same level of torch after the snow but yea it's the long range NAM, it looks like snow to drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: is that a new weather term ? > "butter the toast" Thing I don't like about Wednesdays event is Thursday it might break 50 degrees and we end up with bare ground quickly ! If not...... lets make it one SE ridge ftw ALEX! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 This storm looks the most promising since the Nov 15th system. Strong/intense overrunning with a trajectory right at us, and coming in quick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Zelocita Weather said: This storm looks the most promising since the Nov 15th system. Strong/intense overrunning with a trajectory right at us, and coming in quick. Yeah we'll see. It's one of those overrunning events that could easily be a winner or a disappointment. Precip axis and intensity won't really be known until the radar lights up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: This storm looks the most promising since the Nov 15th system. Strong/intense overrunning with a trajectory right at us, and coming in quick. Definitely has the most high end potential if the overrunning precip shifts north, temps will not be an issue at all at the start of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 GFS still south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 I think the 12Z Canadian has the best idea as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I think the 12Z Canadian has the best idea as of now Probably, way its been going this year. Watch the models all crumple now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 The HP appears centered more east than optimal in my opinion. Would love it if it was anchored over Quebec instead of Nova. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Plenty of time to trend warmer guys 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 58 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I think the 12Z Canadian has the best idea as of now 1-2 inches in this winter is a blizzard 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 12Z EURO has 4 -6 inches throughout much of Central and North NJ https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/new-jersey/snow-depth-in/20190221-0800z.html 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z EURO has 4 -6 inches throughout much of Central and North NJ https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/new-jersey/snow-depth-in/20190221-0800z.html For this winter I'd take that and run if it was the final outcome. I do think the Euro being that much further NW with the heavy snow axis is a big red flag for the GFS, the snowmap is a little deceiving because it includes snow thats already on the ground but it looks like heaviest snow axis would be Baltimore to Philly to Allentown to just West of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now