NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 12Z Euro shows a good chance of at least advisory level snow and ice throughout the region ! https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/new-jersey/snow-depth-in/20190221-1200z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 This should trend further north as the SER gets resolved. Question is does it go too far west and north of us? Certainly possible but we have potential to thread this perfectly here because consensus at 72 hours is to our south which this year is what you’ve generally wanted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 50 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This should trend further north as the SER gets resolved. Question is does it go too far west and north of us? Certainly possible but we have potential to thread this perfectly here because consensus at 72 hours is to our south which this year is what you’ve generally wanted Agree I'd much rather be rooting for a north trend than a south trend although unless im missing something isn't this storm already tracking NW it's just this would be the front end frozen part before flipping to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFreak2000 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Nam 18z looks juicy. This is 1pm Wednesday! So I’m assuming we get snow here by 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFreak2000 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 12k looks even better and comes in around 1pm. Wall of heavy snow! Looking good but nam is not that good this far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2019 Author Share Posted February 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, SnowFreak2000 said: 12k looks even better and comes in around 1pm. Wall of heavy snow! Looking good but nam is not that good this far looks like this has real potential and is now within 3 days on modeling - thing I have been noticing is the frozen precip has been starting further south and it now starts as some form of frozen all the way to the VA/NC border.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: looks like this has real potential and is now within 3 days on modeling - thing I have been noticing is the frozen precip has been starting further south and it now starts as some form of frozen all the way to the VA/NC border.... So what can go wrong with this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 NAM is soo close to something nice on Wednesday, just need a small northward tick with the precip, PA and Central NJ get crushed on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: So what can go wrong with this one? The corridor that gets the WAA precip is gonna be narrow. Maybe 100 miles. North and south of that won’t see much of anything. We won’t know for a good 48 hours where that sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The corridor that gets the WAA precip is gonna be narrow. Maybe 100 miles. North and south of that won’t see much of anything. We won’t know for a good 48 hours where that sets up Yea and unfortunately that may be even narrower near the coast where the temps will rise the quickest. I could see PA/Western MD/Western Virginia doing really well with this setup, but for the coast it will either miss to the south or be too warm except for a very narrow region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFreak2000 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 16 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: So what can go wrong with this one? Too much confluence leading to shredding of the precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnowFreak2000 said: Too much confluence leading to shredding of the precipitation which is still the most likely outcome but the trend on the models is at least in the positive direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, SnowFreak2000 said: Too much confluence leading to shredding of the precipitation Not gonna happen in this setup with that sort of SE ridge and where we are located. If you’re up in New England maybe. The best axis of heavy snow with this will be somewhere between 50 miles north of NYC and BWI. It’s unlikely to end much outside of that area. The shortwave will ride the ridge up from the TN valley and inevitably make a turn east at some point across WV or PA. Where it meets resistance and makes the turn, areas that are dead center in that corridor will get hit hardest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2019 Author Share Posted February 17, 2019 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 333 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2019 SYNOPSIS FOR WEDNESDAY PTYPE ISSUES WILL BE ABUNDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM. PRECIP STARTS OUT AS ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, THE HIGH MOVES TOWARDS CAPE COD, ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW, THEN MORE OF A SOUTHEAST FLOW. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE GOOD CAD INITIALLY, THE POSITION OF THIS HIGH ALLOWS FOR SOME WARMER AIR AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND IN THE MIDLEVELS TO LIFT IN FROM THE SOUTH. SNOW BECOMES A WINTRY MIX FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, THE DELAWARE VALLEY, INCLUDING PHILLY, AND DELMARVA EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT SNOW CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN NJ, THE LEHIGH VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHERN POCONOS THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRECIP CHANGES TO PLAIN RAIN FOR DELMARVA, WHILE PRECIP BECOMES RAIN AND SLEET FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NJ AND SOUTHEAST PA, EVENTUALLY BECOMING PLAIN RAIN. FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN ZONES, EXPECTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAT WILL RESULT IN ACCUMULATING ICE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH THIS SYSTEM. BY THURSDAY MORNING, PRECIP EVENTUALLY BECOMES ALL RAIN BEFORE TAPERING OFF BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 We need the precip to come in faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 GFS not on board for Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Weak sauce at 1011mb location is good ... but the lakes cutter would stifle any CAD imho 72hr prog https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/A_72hrsfc.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 Hopefully we will have cold enough air at all levels for this event at the beginning to prevent what is happening like tonight' where many are reporting just rain and even further north sleet ………. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 49 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Hopefully we will have cold enough air at all levels for this event at the beginning to prevent what is happening like tonight' where many are reporting just rain and even further north sleet ………. You would think we are in business with this but by the time it gets up here it’s too late. We need the ridge to pump more and push the wave of WAA snow further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: Hopefully we will have cold enough air at all levels for this event at the beginning to prevent what is happening like tonight' where many are reporting just rain and even further north sleet ………. Its definitely plenty cold for snow at the start with this unfortunately the models halt any real precip until it warms up, hope that changes but given this winter..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 26 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Its definitely plenty cold for snow at the start with this unfortunately the models halt any real precip until it warms up, hope that changes but given this winter..... 0Z GFS does not look good for much if any advisory level snow with this event for the immediate NYC metro at least...…HP is in the wrong spot too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 0Z GFS does not look good for much if any advisory level snow with this event for the immediate NYC metro at least...…HP is in the wrong spot too We want the precip to come up faster before the cold air goes away. The high is in the wrong spot on every model. Thats not the issue. This is a snow to rain event. Cmc looks good for CNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We want the precip to come up faster before the cold air goes away. The high is in the wrong spot on every model. Thats not the issue. This is a snow to rain event. Cmc looks good for CNJ When thicknesses are colder in Phoenix than NYC, there's your issue. A low over northern Missouri isn't usually favorable here. We've seen so many of these tracks west of us this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We want the precip to come up faster before the cold air goes away. The high is in the wrong spot on every model. Thats not the issue. This is a snow to rain event. Cmc looks good for CNJ The high position isn’t really the issue at all. It’s that the models wash out the disturbance that triggers the overrunning. I fully believe they are doing that too fast. In addition going with the seasonal trend this will prbosbly bump north in the final 48 hours due to the SER. I would want to be in CNJ or E-C PA right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The high position isn’t really the issue at all. It’s that the models wash out the disturbance that triggers the overrunning. I fully believe they are doing that too fast. In addition going with the seasonal trend this will prbosbly bump north in the final 48 hours due to the SER. I would want to be in CNJ or E-C PA right now Cmc is nice with the onset precip for CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Cmc is nice with the onset precip for CNJ. GFS is by far worst. That doesn’t surprise me as it’s underplayed the SER all winter and is also prone to washing out a shortwave more so than other globals and the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 CMC is close to being decent, also shows an ice storm for the interior later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 This winter has been beyond painful , I just refuse to get sucked in again by the models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 6z NAM would be warning level snows with our latitude the jackpot for the overrunning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Odds are in favor of another bust given the recent trends. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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