Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,515
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    chrislittlenews
    Newest Member
    chrislittlenews
    Joined
janetjanet998

TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

Recommended Posts

Looking at radar, it looks like some areas may have absolutely no trouble hitting an inch in 3 hours this evening. 

16 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

The aforementioned offices indicated that as little as 
1.00 inches of rainfall in three hours could have significant 
impacts. 

giphy.gif 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Nashville TN
302 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

...Potentially Life-Threatening Flash Flooding Possible...

. More heavy rain is on tap for Middle TN starting tonight.
Multiple waves of heavy rain will bring 3 to 5 inches to the mid-
state between tonight and Saturday night. The main concern will
start after midnight tonight as areas that experienced widespread
flooding Wednesday could see 2 to 3 inches of this rain on Friday
alone. Folks who live in southwest portions of Middle TN,
including those west of I-24 and south of I-40 need to have a plan
in place now in case the need arises to evacuate to higher
ground. Please don`t take this lightly. Have somewhere to go at a
moment`s notice to escape flood waters.

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-220600-
/O.EXT.KOHX.FF.A.0003.190221T2102Z-190224T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
Including the cities of Dover, Clarksville, Springfield,
Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Lafayette, Celina,
Byrdstown, Erin, Waverly, New Johnsonville, McEwen, Dickson,
Ashland City, Kingston Springs, Nashville, Lebanon, Mount Juliet,
Hartsville, Carthage, South Carthage, Gordonsville, Gainesboro,
Cookeville, Livingston, Jamestown, Allardt, Linden, Lobelville,
Centerville, Hohenwald, Franklin, Brentwood, Columbia, Lewisburg,
Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Woodbury, Smithville, Sparta,
Crossville, Shelbyville, Tullahoma, Manchester, McMinnville,
Altamont, Coalmont, Spencer, Clifton, Waynesboro, Lawrenceburg,
and Pulaski
302 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* A portion of Middle Tennessee, including the following areas,
  Bedford, Cannon, Cheatham, Clay, Coffee, Cumberland, Davidson,
  De Kalb, Dickson, Fentress, Giles, Grundy, Hickman, Houston,
  Humphreys, Jackson, Lawrence, Lewis, Macon, Marshall, Maury,
  Montgomery, Overton, Perry, Pickett, Putnam, Robertson,
  Rutherford, Smith, Stewart, Sumner, Trousdale, Van Buren,
  Warren, Wayne, White, Williamson, and Wilson.

* Through Saturday evening

* An additional 3 to 5 inches of rain with locally higher amounts
  is expected in the watch area.

* Potentially life-threatening flooding will be possible,
  especially early Friday morning through Friday night.

* If you live near a stream, creek or river that you know floods
  easily, please have a plan in place now to evacuate in the event
  flood waters begin to rise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Looking at radar, it looks like some areas may have absolutely no trouble hitting an inch in 3 hours this evening. 

giphy.gif 

HRRR is initializing too low even for the rain here in the last hour. Doesn't have an accumulation until after midnight, picked up .23". 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From OHX AFD, just wow...not too many times seen one wrote like this

 

This isn`t a forecast discussion I write lightly. After yesterday`s
widespread flooding across all of Middle TN, even with the 18 hour
break in rainfall, the addition of even another 1 to 1.5 inches is
going to create some major issues.  The problem is, we`re now
forecasting 1 to 3 inches of rain just through tomorrow afternoon
and a total of 3 to 5 inches from tonight through Saturday night.
The highest amounts are currently thought to fall across southwest
portions of Middle TN, basically west of I-24 and south of I-40.
While there were already swift water rescues yesterday, this amount
of rainfall is likely to cause more of the same and probably even
cause some people to be thinking about a plan to evacuate.  This
needs to be your focus prior tonight.  If you live near a stream or
a creek or a river that you know floods easily, you need to have a
plan in place to evacuate and get to higher ground in the event
waters begin to rise as this has the makings of a life-threatening
situation. The main time of concern begins early tomorrow morning,
runs right through most of the day tomorrow and probably won`t let
up much, if at all, tomorrow night.

While there is a severe weather threat Saturday evening across the
mid-state, the focus right now needs to be the extreme amount of
rainfall we`re expecting.  Please don`t take this lightly.  Have a
plan in place now so you can evacuate to higher ground quickly, if
need be.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Looks like Cumberland Falls flow has increased dramatically  since I was there last week

Much higher and there won't be a waterfall anymore. If you've never been there it's hard to express how high the water would hav to be. 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

it looks like Corps is finally seeing what I was pointing out and  have increased outflows from the Lake Cumberland to 33K..will  they keep it up as the system moves in though?  On the Friday  media report they said they will only increase to 35,000 cfs when "conditions allow" to help downstream flooding....that means they wouldn't do it with heavy rains in the forecast

I wonder what changed..mmmmmmm..believe me that they don't want this water going down the river at this point unless they have too for a reason

2/21/2019    noon    746.35        29,380  +.15
2/21/2019    1 PM    746.50        30,700. +.15
2/21/2019    2 PM    746.65        33,060. +.15

 

this should have been done earlier IMO..Friday they said it would take 48 hours to build a flood wall....so Monday or Tuesday they should have been ready to increase but they dropped it to 25K instead 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

They drew that graphic all the way into MRX area I'm in their concern area.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

They went into HUN area as well, from reading the AFD, I believe they are trying to reach as many as possible regardless of CWA.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
They went into HUN area as well, from reading the AFD, I believe they are trying to reach as many as possible regardless of CWA.
Yeah now that you mention it they drew into MEG also. Interesting usually they stop short of crossing into neighboring CWAs, or just barely draw into a neighbor but the definitely didn't use that restraint in that graphic.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Yeah now that you mention it they drew into MEG also. Interesting usually they stop short of crossing into neighboring CWAs, or just barely draw into a neighbor but the definitely didn't use that restraint in that graphic.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

MRX now updated the Watch

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Update to MRX FFW for E TN:

 

* Additional periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread
  the region tonight, lasting through Saturday morning. Rainfall
  totals ranging from 2 to 3 inches are expected with isolated
  higher amounts closer to 4 inches possible.

* Given the already saturated soil and high stream flows, the
  additional moderate to heavy rains will likely cause significant
  stream flooding, roadway flooding, mud slides, and main stem
  river flooding. Potentiallly life threatening flooding is
  possible.

* If you live near a stream, creek or river that typically floods
  easily, please have a plan in place now to evacuate in the event
  of flood waters begin to rise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
MRX:

 

 

Dz92JjlW0AACA2Z.jpeg.15d07ea94e46e57c15a6a1f03f823b4c.jpeg

 

Honestly I cannot remember ever reading a forecast or graphic that included “potentially life threatening” for heavy rain including landslides in ETn CWA and I’m 44.

 

 

.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Honestly I cannot remember ever reading a forecast or graphic that included “potentially life threatening” for heavy rain including landslides in ETn CWA and I’m 44.

 

 

.

I was thinking the same thing. Strong language, they are definitely taking it seriously for sure. Though IMBY, I cannot remember a wetter winter either. Just since last Friday IMBY I've recorded 5.3" of rain, of course that's on top of all the wet weather before. I think it is an exceptional situation considering the time of the year with no plant life to assist in taking in that water from the soil.

 

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

00z 3k is prob worst case scenario for SE TN. Models all day have underperformed here... .6" so far. 3k spits out close to 3" by noon tomorrow and front still stalled south of the area, overrunning precip.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

00z 3k is prob worst case scenario for SE TN. Models all day have underperformed here... .6" so far. 3k spits out close to 3" by noon tomorrow and front still stalled south of the area, overrunning precip.

12z and 18z NAM products= bad

00z = "hold my beer"

all depends on placement ..and nowcasting.....NAM with a stripe of 6- 7 inches from Northern MS into TN ..the odd part is it has very little precip in that area thru 06z ..yet heavy rain there now

Namnest actually keeps a lot of the  max precip  south and west of the TVA watershed (west Tn and N MS)

no update from TVA about Cumberland since 2..but NWS river data suggest rate of rise slowing to perhaps   .1 an hour?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Most of the globals did not have a good handle on the rain this evening even as late as the 12z runs today. GFS had me at around 0.10" by this time. I'm quickly closing in on 1". 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's just pouring cats and dogs out there right now, the fire hose is aimed right up into my back yard and down across southern Middle Tennessee. I live very near the divide, where the runoff either flows into the Tennessee river, or the Cumberland River. Two creeks behind my house flow into the Cumberland eventually and a three more meet just a few hundred yards away and they form a larger one that eventually drains into the Tennessee. Looking at the HRRR the flow from Southern Middle up the Plateau looks to continue for the next 18 hours almost unabated.  Even with that said, it didn't initialize very well, it didn't show my area getting rain right now but I'm getting pounded.

The 06z RGEM really brings the heavy stuff. The NAM 3K is the lightest, but I'll go ahead and declare it wrong immediately. I've had as almost as much rain since 1am when it initialized as it shows falling here for the next 60 hours. It only shows .6 or .7 here during that entire span. I'm getting training 35-40 dbz for the last hour and a half. That's about .35 or so inches of rain per hour.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

they have increased outflow at Wolf Creek up to 39,000 at one point. (all time record 40K)...this has slowed the rise and so far no heavy rain is helping too 

 

lake up another 2.71 feet the past 24 hours an average of .0112 per hour..at 4am the lake is .67 feet behind my "overflow post" and not rising the .12 per hour for today....so things looking better...I think they got more aggressive with the outflows when crunching numbers...they implied a week ago ago they had plenty of flood storage and wouldn't increase to 35.000 until it stopped raining...so something changed

 

2/22/2019    1 AM    747.52      35,860
2/22/2019    2 AM    747.58      35,860  +.06
2/22/2019    3 AM    747.65      39,860 +.07
2/22/2019    4 AM    747.71     35,860  +.06 
2/22/2019    5 AM    747.76      35,960   +.05
2/22/2019    6 AM    747.81      35,960  +.05 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Outstanding job by the lock operators along Ft. Loudon lake. Tellico River has yet to reach Flood Stage. If someone had told me at the beggining we would be sitting at 6.3" by Friday morning and the river wouldn't flood, I would have thought they were silly. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m not as educated on this stuff as most of y’all, but it seems like this isn’t materializing much over the valley today. Barely been drizzling much of the morning in Athens. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

seems hr focus is a little more west for  now

 

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
957 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2019  
  
DAY 1  
VALID 15Z FRI FEB 22 2019 - 12Z SAT FEB 23 2019  
  
...A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF MS, AR, AL  
AND TN...  
  
15Z UPDATE: LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL AXIS AND METEOROLOGICAL  
SETUP WITH RESPECT TO CURRENT HIGH RISK.  HOWEVER, RECENT TRENDS  
IN GOES-16,  REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC, AND SURFACE/VWP OBSERVATIONS  
SUGGEST GREATER MOISTURE FLUX/CONVERGENCE UPSTREAM AS FAR WEST AS  
EXTREME EASTERN TX.  HI-RES CAMS PARTICULARLY THE HRRR AND  
ARW/ARW2/NMMB ALSO INDICATE THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY  
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TRAINING ALONG THE 850MB BOUNDARY, EVENTUALLY  
TRAINING INTO AREAS ALREADY AFFECTED OVERNIGHT IN SE AR AND N MS.   
WHILE, ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE A BIT DRIER OVER E TX, N LA, SW  
AR, THIS GROWING QPF SIGNAL AND DEEP MOISTURE FLUX (AND MULTIPLE  
ROUNDS THIS MORNING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT) SUPPORT A WESTWARD  
EXPANSION OF THE SLIGHT RISK TO THE TX/LA BORDER.  ADDITIONALLY,  
THE HIGH RISK WAS PULLED WESTWARD, AS WELL, CLIPPING SE AR, WHERE  
THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN ACTIVE FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS.  THE  
MODERATE RISK WAS PULLED BACK TO THE 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hatchie river in my neck off the woods is scheduled to be at 18.5 by Sunday morning.  At 19ft the river starts to flood houses along river road in hardeman county.  If we get to 19ft it could get ugly for a lot of people on or along the Hatchie River.  Stay safe this weekend guys/gals.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

so far no heavy rain

 

Current State of Lake Cumberland
 FEBRUARY 22, 2019  LEAVE A COMMENT
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers continues to monitor stream conditions throughout the Cumberland River Basin and to manage the release of water from its 10 dams, including Wolf Creek Dam on Lake Cumberland, as heavy rain continues to impact the region this week.The basin has received two to five inches of rain over the past four days, four to seven inches of rain over the past seven days, and seven to 12 inches of rain over the past month. The latest forecast from the National Weather Service calls for three to four inches of rainfall in the next 72 hours. At this time, long-term forecasts are more positive with little precipitation expected beyond the next 72 hours.
Lake Cumberland’s elevation is was over 746 at the last Corps report late Thursday afternoon. The flood control pool extends from elevation 723 to 760 and is currently 60 percent full. The Corps says the lake will continue to rise for the next several days ahead of the rainfall as inflows currently exceed outflows. Current discharge at the dam is now 35,000 cfs.

The pool of record is 751.69 back in 1984. Many of the roadways leading to the lake have been closed off and the public is urged to be cautious when approaching these areas.

 

----------------------------

Lake Cumberland hits second-highest elevation in history and is expected to keep rising

 

The water elevation at Lake Cumberland has hit a level seen only three times since Wolf Creek Dam was finished nearly 70 years ago, and is approaching a record with continued rain expected.

The level as of 8 a.m. Friday was 747.84 feet above sea level, according to the U.S Army Corps of Engineers.

The only other times the lake level has topped 745 feet were in April 1962, when it hit 747.12, and in May 1984, when it was 751.69, the record.

Under typical conditions, the lake fills to a level of 700 feet to 723 feet by mid-May.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×