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janetjanet998

TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

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8 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

I assume  (EURO) that some of that precip over central MS and AL is from the later system next week...better not have a north trend with that into the TVA watershed again

 

Totals thru the weekend system...Euro has 2 more systems next week. 1 Mon/Mon night (for southern areas), 2 Tues night/Wed region wide. Both have heavy rainfall.

ecmwf_tprecip_se_26.png

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23 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

. Its a lose/lose situation nearly.

yep....2 days ago it looked like SE TN was going to get 8 inches ..so they sent all  this water down the river..it has to get into KY lake at some point...and then inot the OH river..so far not much reduction at Kentucky/Barkley

but now areas more NW we get into the action too

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Just now, janetjanet998 said:

holy crap..i was looking at an old map that seemed to be stored in my Cache I assume..it said thru 240 hours not the 150 in this post

First one i posted was 240...i has all the systems 

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12 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

yep....2 days ago it looked like SE TN was going to get 8 inches ..so they sent all  this water down the river..it has to get into KY lake at some point...and then inot the OH river..so far not much reduction at Kentucky/Barkley

but now areas more NW we get into the action too

It's lose/lose cause they had to open them here..i live right beside the Tellico River here in SE TN and we went into flood stage early this morning, if the tributary dams had not been pushing what they were, we would have had numerous water rescues. We are nearing 3" already, plus the modeled 6-7 thru this weekend and we will exceed the previous guidance from a few days ago. 

*bad part, as has been with everything modeled this winter on all models, is the bust factor (whether its pattern recognition, snowfall, or precip). Nearly every system has busted on the high side here this winter (except the snow one lol).

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20 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

It's lose/lose cause they had to open them here..i live right beside the Tellico River here in SE TN and we went into flood stage early this morning, if the tributary dams had not been pushing what they were, we would have had numerous water rescues. We are nearing 3" already, plus the modeled 6-7 thru this weekend and we will exceed the previous guidance from a few days ago. 

 

you will briefly get hit with the WF...(heavier west).but then likely a break...a big  key for you is how much the firehose get pushed into north GA out of the watershed Thursday for a bit(6-9 hours maybe) before  it heads back north with the next wave..

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The latest from MRX:

Quote
Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
308 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019 /208 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019/
...Periods of rain and possible flooding from late Tuesday
into Sunday across much of east Tennessee, southwest Virginia,
and far Southwest North Carolina...

Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times, are expected across
southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina starting late
Tuesday afternoon.

The heaviest rainfall will likely fall across the Plateau, central
and southern sections of East Tennessee, and southwest North
Carolina where 4 to 6 inches are possible over the next 7 days.
Slightly lower amounts between 2 and 4 inches are expected across
southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee.

Above normal rainfall has occurred in much of the region over the
past 2 months. Since the ground is already saturated and streams
are high, this upcoming rainfall may cause flooding. Stream
flooding, flooding of roadways, additional ponding of low lying
areas, basement flooding, and mud slides are possible. Some river
flooding is also a concern for mid to late in the week.

There is still some uncertainty on the timing of periods of
heaviest rainfall and exact amounts over the next couple of days.
We will continue to monitor this situation and will pass along
more information as the system approaches.
Quote
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)...

A very wet but
overall mild week is still expected with areas of flooding, although
the flood threat will be less widespread than earlier thought.
Longwave troughing in the west and ridging off the east coast will
keep the TN Valley in an active southwesterly deep layer flow
pattern. This combined with an extremely strong upper level jet will
lead to enhanced lifting of the copious amounts of moisture being
transported into our region. The result will be a series of short
wave troughs and surface lows moving northeastward through the TN
and OH Valleys along a quasi-stationary front bringing waves of rain
until a stronger shortwave next weekend finally moves the western
trough eastward and forces the front to clear our region. Even
though most of the rain will be light to moderate, the long duration
will cause at least some flooding of creeks, rivers, streams, low
lying and poor drainage areas, and basements. The above normal
precipitation this winter has saturated the soil.

Isentropic lift along a warm front will produce a steady area of
rain that will lift from S to N across the region Tuesday night.
Freezing levels near 12 thousand feet, a strengthening LLJ, and PWATs
around 1.2 inches will lead to periods of heavier rainfall rates,
but the duration will be short lived as the forcing shifts northward
rapidly after 06-08Z. Have categorical pops early decreasing to
chance/likely for the second half of the night. A cold wedge is just
deep enough for a light mix of sleet and freezing rain in Russell
and Washington Counties, VA and extreme northeast TN Tuesday night
before 09Z. A light ice accumulation could occur in these areas. WAA
Wednesday with the warm front to our north and quasi-stationary cold
front to the west will lead to mostly dry and pleasantly warm
conditions much of the day. Have pops in the high end chance range
until the front to the west and associated fronto-genetic forcing
brings rain eastward into the region after 21Z. Increased pops to
categorical for late Wednesday into Wednesday night. The front
continues to progress faster in latest models, so it now only looks
like a 6-8 hour window of decent rainfall rates. Have pops tapering
to chance/likely after 06Z Thursday from W to E. The exception is
extreme southeast TN and southwest NC where the boundary will stall
and cause steady rain to persist through Thursday afternoon. QPF
from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon should range from
0.50 to 1.50 inches in much of southwest VA, the Plateau, and valley
with some higher amounts around 2 inches across far southeast TN and
southwest NC. These amounts are significantly lower compared to a
couple of days ago and are low confidence due to run to run
inconsistency among the guidance.

High winds are likely in the peaks and foothills of the Smoky
Mountains in far east TN Tuesday night through Wednesday. Southerly
850 mb winds of 50-65 kts across the terrain, strongly negative
Omega, and a duct function up to 24 C indicate this could be a
classic mountain wave event. Have issued a High Wind Watch for the
peaks and foothills of Greene County to Monroe. It is possible that
an advisory will be needed farther north.

Another wave quickly developing on the active frontal boundary
Thursday night will bring showers back to the region. Have fairly
high pops returning to all areas Thursday evening through Friday
night. The ECMWF and GFS are in decent agreement with this, but
suspect there will be breaks in the rain during this time as
isentropic ascent is usually forced northward when a low passes to
our west.

After a brief break Saturday, a strong shortwave is still progged to
induce cyclogenesis in the Plains and Midwest which will move a
strong, pattern changing cold front across the region. Slight timing
differences continue among the guidance, but have likely pops
spreading in Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. A strong LLJ and
deep moisture ahead of this front, strong fronto-genetic forcing,
and unseasonably high PWAT values once again will bring the
potential for a period of heavy rainfall on top of saturated soil.

Dry and colder weather will finally move in late Sunday through
Monday.

 

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I am all for those totals being backed-down.  3-4" is about the max that we can handle here before it gets ugly.  My area that I jog is now under water and seems like the "base state" for that current area - meaning it is out of its banks and not receding quickly.  We can probably handle 3-4" over the period of a week, though there will likely be urban flooding etc.  The bigger numbers in SE TN and west of that are trouble for the TN River system.  I was commenting earlier that the absolute thing that we don't want in the LR is a big snowstorm in the mountains followed by another active STJ firehose that melts it all at once.  Folks in the foothills communities know that is bad business.  

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2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I am all for those totals being backed-down.  3-4" is about the max that we can handle here before it gets ugly.  My area that I jog is now under water and seems like the "base state" for that current area - meaning it is out of its banks and not receding quickly.  We can probably handle 3-4" over the period of a week, though there will likely be urban flooding etc.  The bigger numbers in SE TN and west of that are trouble for the TN River system.  I was commenting earlier that the absolute thing that we don't want in the LR is a big snowstorm in the mountains followed by another active STJ firehose that melts it all at once.  Folks in the foothills communities know that is bad business.  

Each system has been like a stepping block. Definitely a rising "base". At 2000 cubic feet second we enter flood stage here. 

USGS.03518500.131339.00060..20190209.20190218.log.0.p50.gif

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lake Cumberland now at 739.08 ft and rising up 2 feet the past 24 hours 

outflow 28,720....flow at Cumberland river at williamburg  KY upstream 18,000 cfs expect to hit 27,000 by weds and hold above 24,000 all week

there is obviously other inflow then  the Williamsburg number but I think you get the point

if other words inflow will be increasing 

going to get really interesting 

 

 

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47 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Each system has been like a stepping block. Definitely a rising "base". At 2000 cubic feet second we enter flood stage here. 

USGS.03518500.131339.00060..20190209.20190218.log.0.p50.gif

I watch the levels for Little River and the Doe during spring so as to know when to safely fish(wade) those early season hatches at either Roan Mountain State Park or in GSMNP.  Two things...it will take some time for that to settle back to median flow with no rain at all(likely a couple of weeks).  The other, it won't take much rainfall at all in order to bump that right back up to flood stage.  One time I fished the Doe and the graph looked good when I left the house, but there had been some showers on the mountain a few hours earlier.  I noticed an uptick similar to the Feb 11th one where it spiked up and looked like it was coming back down....just that little downward hitch on that blue line above as it soars upward.  Well, I though it was coming back down and had peaked.  So, we hopped in the car and headed for the state park.  Nope.  It was a torrent.  We tried throwing some streamers, but it was just too much.  Got home and the graph was rolling.  For that entire spring, the river was very susceptible to any rain.  Great share, Tellico.  Great illustration of a river "stepping up" over time.

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Nearing 4 Trillion Gals forecast for TN.

 

KY: 3.4 Tril, 6.47 Max, 4.84 Avg

AL: 2.9 Tril, 6.57 Max, 3.21 Avg

MS: 3.6 Tril, 6.56 Max, 4.27 Avg

7.3 Trillion just for OH/TN watershed.

Screenshot_20190218-201223.png

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so yesterday the TN river at Savannah was expected to rise to 390 feet (major 387) the 24th . just updated now says 385 and change....so they either plan on releasing less water from pickwick or expected less rainfall....or maybe both

 

 

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37 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

so yesterday the TN river at Savannah was expected to rise to 390 feet (major 387) the 24th . just updated now says 385 and change....so they either plan on releasing less water from pickwick or expected less rainfall....or maybe both

 

 

As a basin average, it looks like expected totals for this week have dropped about 10-15%. I suspect the reduction in crest is due to that alone. It is, however, very difficult to predict runoff amounts with such a thoroughly saturated ground. I’m happy to see modeling reduce the extreme rain amounts shown over the weekend, but I would like to see some model consensus on a clear ending to this crappy wet pattern. 

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They have have increased flows out of Barkley again to 100K this evening....Ky lake still 188K... So 288,000 total into the OH...ALOT....for reference 600K  (record) was the max outflow after the may 2010 event..

TVA page now says 238K from Kentucky alone expected on the 2OTH

that wasn't the plan two days ago( see news article in my earlier post). I assume since the new crest on the OHIO will be higher and later....dumping out water now won't increase the peak so they want to ditch as much as possible util the crest gets closer

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Don't like how 00z suite has started..NAM quicker with onset, larger shield with WF, and less of a break. Rate of decent here is slowing over last couple hours and still near flood stage, need every hour we can get. As Carver mentioned earlier, will not take much of anything to top the banks again (let alone the 3+ the 3k is showing for this next event for near the state line.

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I feel like the RGEM did pretty well with the last slug of moisture and it looks quite a bit more widespread that the NAM this AM. Interestingly though, if it is right with the precip maximum, that would be a better place for it since there is a mini divide there. All water does go to the Gulf, but there it flows straight in from AL, instead of going through the TN to the Mississippi. 

giphy.gif 

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Euro a little more optimistic for East TN this morning with a widespread 3 - 4" over the next 10 days. 5 - 7" (isolated 8) for areas west of the Cumberland plateau, so still not so good for the overall watershed. Fortunately 10"+ amounts no longer showing up, but I guess some of that from several days ago has already fallen. 

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well with light rain moving into the southern TVA area..lets call the event started....it may rain continuously   somewhere in watershed (TVA/OH) the whole week.....best chance for a break in between systems on Thursday as the firehose weakens and heads south  before the next wave

lake Cumberland as of 10pm last night 739.52 should hit  740 this morning..record 751.7ish.    2.5-3.5 inches basin wide should break it if outflows remain 29,000ish....any training ..all bets are off

 

OH river crest without the big weekend system (both points running ahead of last nights forecast points)

Paducah 49.5

cairo 53

both top 18 all time crests (even a slight increase will move up the list fast)

Lake Barkley/KY lake levels about 755.1 feet.  summer pool 759. record 772ish..outflows into OH 282,000 cfs

 

 

 

 

 

the weekend event looks troubling because there is potential of the front to get hung up , usually poorly modeled, due to convection and training.....

 

 

 

 

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12z models so far keep the training storms along and west of the MS river out of the TVA system the first event,,but NAMS sometimes too far NW

 

  NOTE:  radars will likely be bright branded at the beginning of this event so precip amounts will be overdone the further you get from the radar site


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
948 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2019  
  
DAY 1  
VALID 15Z TUE FEB 19 2019 - 12Z WED FEB 20 2019  
  
1500 UTC UPDATE  
  
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK.  
  
ORAVEC  
  
...A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS BETWEEN THE  
ARKLATEX AND SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY...  
  
LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST/MID-SOUTH/OHIO VALLEY...  
THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS MOISTURE SURGING NORTH OUT  
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH ON AN 850 MB JET OF 50-70 KTS, WHICH  
ADVECTS A PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.5-1.75" NORTH  
ACROSS LA INTO SOUTHEAST AR AND ADJACENT MS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES  
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ASCENT IS AIDED BY INCREASING  
DIFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
AMPLIFIES. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE AND  
INCREASING RAINFALL RATES IN THIS AREA.  BASED ON THE 18Z & 00Z  
GFS GUIDANCE, INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) ECLIPSES 1000  
KG/(M*S), WITH ITS NARROWNESS INDICATING THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME  
QUALIFIES AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AFTER
00Z WEDNESDAY/TUESDAY  
EVENING.  THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT OF  
THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH INCREASINGLY FAVORS CELL TRAINING WITH TIME.   
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RISES TO 60-80 KNOTS.  MESOCYCLONES ARE  
EXPECTED, BUT THE INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE INCREASINGLY FAVOR A  
CONVECTIVE MODE MORE ALONG THE LINES OF A COLD TROUGH SQUALL LINE  
ONCE THE 850 HPA FLOW STARTS TO VEER TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING  
CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST WITHIN THE SURFACE LOW'S WARM SECTOR,  
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN  
MS, WHERE A LESSER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK HAS BEEN INDICATED.  
   
A TOTAL OF 3-4" APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREAL AVERAGE  
AMOUNTS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE 5-6" RANGE POSSIBLE  
PER THE MODEST SIGNAL SEEN IN THE 00Z MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.  IN  
NORTHERN LA, NORTHERN MS, EASTERN AR, AND TN, HOURLY TOTALS IN THE  
1-2" RANGE SHOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY  
FORECAST (DESPITE THE 00Z HREF PROBABILITIES INDICATING LOWER).   
THIS, ALONG WITH TWO WEEK PRECIPITATION OF 300-500% OF AVERAGE  
SOMEWHAT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR, TN, KY, AND THE OH  
VALLEY RESULTED IN MAINTAINING THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM  
CONTINUITY WITH COSMETIC CHANGES.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW  
SPREAD IN REGARDS TO THE QPF IN GENERAL WITH THE 00Z NAM THE  
FARTHEST NORTHWEST -- AS USUAL -- WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN REGIONAL,  
00Z ECMWF TO SOME DEGREE, AND 18/00Z GEFS-BASED QPF REFORECAST  
WERE MORE EASTWARD.  WHEN ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE CONCERNING WHERE  
THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT WERE  
EXPECTED, THIS BROADENED THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOOTPRINT FROM  
CONTINUITY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND QPF  
REFORECAST.  THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM  
THE DEEP SOUTH INTO TN WITH TIME, WHICH IS WHERE THE HIGHEST  
HOURLY RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.  TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST,  
RAINFALL SHOULD BE OF LONGER DURATION DUE TO MORE LIMITED  
INSTABILITY WITH HOURLY TOTALS CLOSER TO THE 0.5" RANGE SO DID NOT  
ALLOW THE MODERATE RISK AREA TO SHIFT VERY FAR INTO KY.   
COORDINATED WITH THE WINTER WEATHER FORECASTER TO ATTEMPT TO  
DELIMIT THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK  
AREAS.  
  
ROTH  
  
DAY 2  
VALID 12Z WED FEB 20 2019 - 12Z THU FEB 21 2019  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF  
THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY  
MOTNING...  
  
....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIFNALL FROM THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...  
   
..SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY  
  
A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SHOULD BE ON-GOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE  
DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD, AIDED BY A WELL DEFINED MOSITURE PLUME  
COMING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...GOOD MID-LEVEL FORCING AND A  
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  MAINTAINED THE ON-GOING MODERATE RISK  
AREA IN PARTS OF ALABAMA WHERE THERE LOOKS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP  
OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE DAY 1 AND DAY 2 PERIOD.  
  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN ON DAY 1, WITH MOST  
AREAS UNDER 2 INCHES.  
THE SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT REFLECTS THE  
HIGHER GROUND MOISTURE CONTENT  
AND REDUCED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN  
APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND  
TENNESSEE.  
  
THE MODERATE RISK REMAINED WHERE OVERLAP OF HIGHER QPF OCCURS, BUT  
THE INCREASE IN FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES FURTHER SOUTH IN BOTH  
MS/AL LEADS TO ONLY A SLIGHT RISK DESPITE SIMILAR RAINFALL TOTALS  
TO NORTHERN AL. LATER UPDATES MAY BE MADE AS RAINFALL TOTALS  
ADJUST, BUT ALSO CHANGES IN FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE DUE TO PRIOR  
RAINS OCCURRING BETWEEN NOW AND THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD.  
  
BANN  
  
DAY 3  
VALID 12Z THU FEB 21 2019 - 12Z FRI FEB 22 2019  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHERN U.S. ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...  
   
..SOUTHERN U.S.  
  
AFTER A BRIEF LULL, MORE MOISTURE WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF  
RAINFALL BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO PARTS OF  
LOUISIANA, ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND  
EARLY FRIDAY.  
  
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL INITIALLY LEAD TO DECREASING  
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THE DAY ON  
THURSDAY.  WITH MAXIMUM VALUE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING 1.4 TO  
1.5 INCHES EARLY IN THE EVENT AND A FEED OF COOLER/DRIER/MORE  
STABLE AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTH, RAINFALL RATES AND COVERAGE  
OF RAINFALL SHOULD BE WANING EARLY.   
  
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND BEGINS  
TO ACCELERATE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL  
GUIDANCE SHOWED DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW QUICKLY IT TAKES TO  
INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY TO  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...BUT THE CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE  
AFTER 22/00Z WHEN ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300K TO 310K LEVELS  
INCREASES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER LA/AR/MS RECOVER AND  
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES BY 22/12Z. THIS SHOULD BE  
SUFFICIENT TO FOCUS AND SUSTAIN RAINFALL RATES HIGH ENOUGH FOR  
FLASH FLOODING.  
  
THERE WAS SOME DEBATE OVER THE NEED FOR A MODERATE RISK AREA...BUT  
FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE (BOTH IN TERMS  
OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT) TO REMAIN WITH A SLIGHT RISK AREA DESPITE  
THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.  AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE CAN STILL BE  
MADE IF NEEDED.   
  
SINCE THE NEXT PHASE OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND BEYOND, REFER TO FORECASTS AND  
DISCUSSIONS PREPARED BY THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE SECTION FOR  
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.  

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4 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

well with light rain moving into the southern TVA area..lets call the event started....it may rain continuously   somewhere in watershed (TVA/OH) the whole week.....best chance for a break in between systems on Thursday as the firehose weakens and heads south  before the next wave

lake Cumberland as of 10pm last night 739.52 should hit  740 this morning..record 751.7ish.    2.5-3.5 inches basin wide should break it if outflows remain 29,000ish....any training ..all bets are off

 

OH river crest without the big weekend system (both points running ahead of last nights forecast points)

Paducah 49.5

cairo 53

both top 18 all time crests (even a slight increase will move up the list fast)

Lake Barkley/KY lake levels about 755.1 feet.  summer pool 759. record 772ish..outflows into OH 282,000 cfs

 

 

 

 

 

the weekend event looks troubling because there is potential of the front to get hung up , usually poorly modeled, due to convection and training.....

 

 

 

 

12z GFS hangs the initial front across SE TN instead of pushing thru into N GA. Def something to watch.

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Prob belongs in the other thread, but the 12z GEFS keeps the flow setup over the same region thru the run...ugly run for the flood threat areas. If we can't shut the Gulf down, this threat may extend well beyond current thinking. 

12z GEFS  (Complete run total):

gefs_qpf_mean_se_65 (1).png

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I’ve been in Polk Co at work all morning. It’s been sleeting on and off since I got here. Obvious bright banding on the radar means a changeover is iminent. 

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Favorable conditions for mountain waves will be in place later tonight and especially tomorrow morning. MRX issued a High Wind Warning and mentioned the potential for downed trees due to saturated ground in the AFD.  

Quote

* WINDS...Southeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 65 mph...except occasional gusts above 70 mph mainly in the Smokies and adjacent foothills, including Camp Creek.

Quote

Regardless of whether or not the strict criteria for a high wind warning/advisory is met there is still a good chance that we see several reports of downed trees simply due to how saturated the grounds are, which leads to falling trees much more easily.

It could take a few hours for mountain waves to really get going tonight/tomorrow morning.  Models show a very strong temperature inversion across the mountains later tonight and the 850mb flow has a bit for of an easterly component. So, it could take until early tomorrow morning to get the proper balance between cross barrier wind speed and stability (haven’t calculated the Froude number, just basing on past experience). The cross barrier flow could be partially blocked for part of the night and could prevent the downslope flow from being sustained.  After the initial round of precip lifts north, the 850mb flow becomes more southerly and the temperature profile is more conducive.  That’s when the conditions become very favorable for mountain waves. This could be a strong event, which will likely cause some problems with down trees along the mountains.

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