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janetjanet998

TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

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still building a wall near/under that tower...locals are saying truck after truck of rocks still coming in today .I wonder if the are prepping it for even higher releases 

 

 

 

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FWIW 6z NAM pretty crappy this AM:

Forecast:

giphy.gif

Reality:

giphy.gif 

Obviously this doesn't mean it will be right or wrong about the next system, but like the training over Knoxville, models still really struggling even as an event is happening. WV GOES 16 does seem to hint that there could be some additional development NW of current precip, but not much as of now.  

Thankfully as of this AM the trend over the past 3 runs on NAM is for a system with a more southerly axis of heavier precip. As the above comparison shows though, who knows what will actually verify. 

Euro still south too with the heaviest rain:

giphy.gif 

It also seems to be overdoing the northern extent of precip this AM, unless there is something radar is missing, always a possibility with the plateau. 

 

0z Euro also tries to give our eastern areas a dusting next Friday with a clipper type system. Any guesses on how long it teases us? 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

And of course now the shortwave is pulling this morning's rain further north. I give up. 

yep..nice "dry" spell

 yesterdays rains missed the cumberland watershed but not TN river........


HSV  : HUNTSVILLE AIRPORT  :    1.12  
MSL  : MUSCLE SHOALS ARPT  :   0.91 

KCHA   .48

TVS .25

lake Cumberloand at 5am down 1 foot the past 24 hours or  .042/hr  754.6 at 5am

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1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

And of course now the shortwave is pulling this morning's rain further north. I give up. 

It's lol-worthy at this point.

 

codnexlab.NEXRAD.MRX.N0Q.20190301.1507.012ani.gif

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Yeah today hurt. I am thankful we got a 72-96 hour break this week, but I thought today's rain would remain light and rather insignificant. Nope, a rather large area will finish around .8 to 1.25 for the upper TVA watershed.

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IMBY I ended the last 2 days at .96" of rain and pretty amazed to see the impact today in the creeks. Creeks between my house and Athens have risen and turned red with such small totals. It's really strange to see, hope Sunday isn't too bad.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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So how about that Euro overnight?

Looks like it may be drier for this system in East TN than even yesterday's, if the Euro is right. A general 0.2 - 0.7 across both watersheds. 6z 12k NAM further north, but 3k develops the convection parallel to the Gulf and keeps higher totals further south like the Euro. The key seems to be just where that convective precip. develops. If it is further south and parallel to the Gulf it might cut off some of the precip in our area. 

Will it be right? Will heavier precip. seemingly magically appear on radar as the system moves in? I guess we'll know tomorrow. 

 

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1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

So how about that Euro overnight?

Looks like it may be drier for this system in East TN than even yesterday's, if the Euro is right. A general 0.2 - 0.7 across both watersheds. 6z 12k NAM further north, but 3k develops the convection parallel to the Gulf and keeps higher totals further south like the Euro. The key seems to be just where that convective precip. develops. If it is further south and parallel to the Gulf it might cut off some of the precip in our area. 

Will it be right? Will heavier precip. seemingly magically appear on radar as the system moves in? I guess we'll know tomorrow. 

 

12z NAM shifted south ..still hits E TN go0d but not Cumberland so much

at 5am lake cumberland 753.25 down down 1.35 ft or .056/hr past 24 hours

odds are the southern solutions will pan out...

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Models are showing the Atmospheric River cranking back up into the 2nd week of March.WPC has already highlighted parts of the East into the Valley with heavy rain.Even though we see weak systems until then the FFG should still be rather low.

Tropical Monitoring    North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.png

Probabilistic Hazards Outlook.png

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23 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Will it be right? Will heavier precip. seemingly magically appear on radar as the system moves in? I guess we'll know tomorrow. 

Looks to me like it is already worse than pretty much every model predicted for today, even 6z suite this AM:

giphy.gif 

giphy.gif

0z ARW2 wasn't too bad with it's progression. 

I understand the yellows/ oranges on NEXRAD aren't exact equivalencies to a models 6/3 hr precip. or projected radar depiction, but still, those look like pretty high rates moving in. 

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1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Looks to me like it is already worse than pretty much every model predicted for today, even 6z suite this AM:

giphy.gif 

giphy.gif

0z ARW2 wasn't too bad with it's progression. 

I understand the yellows/ oranges on NEXRAD aren't exact equivalencies to a models 6/3 hr precip. or projected radar depiction, but still, those look like pretty high rates moving in. 

Most of the bright returns over west TN is brightbanding. 3k was a little to slow and Euro a little too far south, but so far amounts in west TN are close to what GFS had. Big question is does the convection develop over central/southern AL robbing the moisture transport north.

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13 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Models are showing the Atmospheric River cranking back up into the 2nd week of March.WPC has already highlighted parts of the East into the Valley with heavy rain.Even though we see weak systems until then the FFG should still be rather low.

Tropical Monitoring    North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.png

Probabilistic Hazards Outlook.png

Yeah, GEFS has been putting a bullseye across parts of the upper/mid south for a couple days now...EURO has too, but with a little lesser amounts.

gefs_qpf_mean_east_65.png

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Lake Cumberland at this time is back down to the old record high 

it fell 1.38 ft 24 hours ending at 5am..or .058/hr  assuming a 1.5 foot drop per day 

the lake will be at 744.37 at 11z friday  ..near the start of the wet period..the also seem to be SLOWLY backing down the outflow in baby steps..now 57,100 down from 59,800 

 

looks like a general 1/2 to inch over most of TN today

heavier south of the TVA watershed

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Think I am going to bust high on Precip for the day.  Already at .75" and precip rates are running pretty high at times, looking at radar and current rates I anticipate around 2" minimum today, way above forecast.

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1 hour ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Think I am going to bust high on Precip for the day.  Already at .75" and precip rates are running pretty high at times, looking at radar and current rates I anticipate around 2" minimum today, way above forecast.

Will bust a little higher than most modeling (way higher than MRX/local forecasts). Most areas between Huntsville and southern Mid TN picked up around 1.5" 

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4 hours ago, TellicoWx said:

Will bust a little higher than most modeling (way higher than MRX/local forecasts). Most areas between Huntsville and southern Mid TN picked up around 1.5" 

Looks like you were spot on.  Was way off MRX forecast, but on the back edge now of precip, and have 1.46"

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Flash Flood Watch for Whitley Co due to a possible dam about to fail:

 

Including the cities of Corbin and Williamsburg
351 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of south central Kentucky,
  including the following area, Whitley.

* Through Tuesday afternoon

* Recent heavy rains have led to the strong potential of a dam
  failure on a dam on located along Corinth road in the Little
  Spruce Creek drainage about 2 miles southwest of Woodbine.

* If the dam were to completely fail, flash flooding is expected
  for a couple of miles downstream of the dam.

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lake cumberland 749.65 feet down .95 or .04/hr (inflow increased form rain slowed the fall)

if the lake falls 1.2 ft per day we will be at 746 at 10z friday near the start of the "wet period"

 

Center hill dam (the other big pool) also still very full and the rains have also slowed its fall

its  at 670.6 ft , it peaked at 678 or so..the top of the spillway is 785   on Feb 18th it was at 635

so it is still 35 feet higher then 3 weeks ago and only 15 feet from the top of the spillway  (or secondary overflow)

 

 

 

 

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image27.png?7e037fb7ce82c1c111d8d1a01a03bb85

Expected Rainfall Amounts Thursday Night through Sunday Afternoon. Total rainfall amounts will generally range from around 2.5 inches to around 3.5 inches. These expected rainfall amounts may have an affect on area rivers. These expected rainfall amounts are preliminary and subject to change.

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1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said:

image27.png?7e037fb7ce82c1c111d8d1a01a03bb85

Expected Rainfall Amounts Thursday Night through Sunday Afternoon. Total rainfall amounts will generally range from around 2.5 inches to around 3.5 inches. These expected rainfall amounts may have an affect on area rivers. These expected rainfall amounts are preliminary and subject to change.

Not good, not good at all

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Latest GFS brings the fire hose right up the eastern valley again for the weekend system. The below image is a 24 hour total.

image.thumb.png.d5898c4053d516a61261eb941a848d3c.png

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