weathertree4u Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Looks like wet pattern is set to return with a vengeance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 No kidding! My non-educated review of GFS 12Z run says bulls eye of 7-8" around central valley over the next 156 hours. Entire valley is 4"+ EURO 12Z says 1-3" in valley, heavier numbers more middle/west TN I work as a Geotechnical Consultant and we have enough land slides and sinkholes as it is... come on, give us a break lol!!! Doing this job for over 10 years now, I have never seen the amount of massive deep seated on-going slope failures we have at this point (really beginning since last March 2019). Check your bedding planes, soil properties, vegetation growth patterns, and slope inclinations before you buy a home or property!!! My heart has been broken countless times helping poor folks trying to repair geotechnical issues costing 5-10 times what the home costs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Euro weeklies just piled on for a bunch of rain next week. Just awful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Had an 8 foot deep mega pothole/sinkhole open in an area roadway this week. There was a huge one in a backyard a couple weeks ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 No doubt the boundary stalls out over the Valley somewhere,wouldnt pin point any area this far out BNA ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z FEB27 6 HR 6 HR FROZN TOTAL SFC 2 M 1000 1000 QPF CVP PCP QPF PCP TMP 500 850 (IN) (IN) (IN) (IN) TYPES (C) THK THK SUN 12Z 01-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 1.2 545 133 SUN 18Z 01-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 15.3 546 135 MON 00Z 02-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 12.9 548 135 MON 06Z 02-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 10.2 549 134 MON 12Z 02-MAR 0.29 0.24 0.00 0.38 8.4 550 134 MON 18Z 02-MAR 0.08 0.07 0.00 0.46 13.3 552 135 TUE 00Z 03-MAR 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.47 13.7 554 136 TUE 06Z 03-MAR 0.07 0.05 0.00 0.53 13.6 557 137 TUE 12Z 03-MAR 0.30 0.09 0.00 0.83 15.0 559 137 TUE 18Z 03-MAR 0.44 0.12 0.00 1.27 16.1 560 137 WED 00Z 04-MAR 0.60 0.16 0.00 1.88 16.3 564 138 WED 06Z 04-MAR 0.75 0.24 0.00 2.63 17.3 566 138 WED 12Z 04-MAR 1.62 0.35 0.00 4.25 12.7 563 137 WED 18Z 04-MAR 2.49 0.33 0.00 6.74 11.2 563 135 THU 00Z 05-MAR 0.39 0.05 0.00 7.13 5.8 541 131 THU 06Z 05-MAR 0.01 0.00 0.00 7.14 3.4 530 131 THU 12Z 05-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.14 1.2 536 131 THU 18Z 05-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.14 13.5 543 133 FRI 00Z 06-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.14 11.1 547 135 FRI 06Z 06-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.14 8.0 547 135 FRI 12Z 06-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.14 4.5 548 134 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Mem CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 12Z FEB27 6 HR 6 HR FROZN TOTAL SFC 2 M 1000 1000 QPF CVP PCP QPF PCP TMP 500 850 (IN) (IN) (IN) (IN) TYPES (C) THK THK SUN 12Z 01-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 7.7 548 135 SUN 18Z 01-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 15.8 548 135 MON 00Z 02-MAR 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.08 15.3 552 136 MON 06Z 02-MAR 0.24 0.24 0.00 0.32 12.6 552 135 MON 12Z 02-MAR 0.26 0.25 0.00 0.58 11.7 554 136 MON 18Z 02-MAR 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.59 18.2 556 137 TUE 00Z 03-MAR 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.60 17.9 559 138 TUE 06Z 03-MAR 0.11 0.02 0.00 0.71 17.0 561 138 TUE 12Z 03-MAR 0.56 0.38 0.00 1.27 16.3 560 137 TUE 18Z 03-MAR 0.60 0.26 0.00 1.88 17.6 562 138 WED 00Z 04-MAR 0.95 0.58 0.00 2.82 17.2 566 138 WED 06Z 04-MAR 2.21 1.13 0.00 5.03 13.9 564 137 WED 12Z 04-MAR 0.48 0.12 0.00 5.50 12.9 560 136 WED 18Z 04-MAR 0.44 0.11 0.00 5.94 9.3 549 133 THU 00Z 05-MAR 0.09 0.01 0.00 6.03 7.6 537 133 THU 06Z 05-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 7.1 539 132 THU 12Z 05-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 2.4 544 133 THU 18Z 05-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 15.7 548 134 FRI 00Z 06-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 13.2 551 135 FRI 06Z 06-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 10.1 552 136 FRI 12Z 06-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 6.9 553 135 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 12 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Mem CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 12Z FEB27 6 HR 6 HR FROZN TOTAL SFC 2 M 1000 1000 QPF CVP PCP QPF PCP TMP 500 850 (IN) (IN) (IN) (IN) TYPES (C) THK THK SUN 12Z 01-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 7.7 548 135 SUN 18Z 01-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 15.8 548 135 MON 00Z 02-MAR 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.08 15.3 552 136 MON 06Z 02-MAR 0.24 0.24 0.00 0.32 12.6 552 135 MON 12Z 02-MAR 0.26 0.25 0.00 0.58 11.7 554 136 MON 18Z 02-MAR 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.59 18.2 556 137 TUE 00Z 03-MAR 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.60 17.9 559 138 TUE 06Z 03-MAR 0.11 0.02 0.00 0.71 17.0 561 138 TUE 12Z 03-MAR 0.56 0.38 0.00 1.27 16.3 560 137 TUE 18Z 03-MAR 0.60 0.26 0.00 1.88 17.6 562 138 WED 00Z 04-MAR 0.95 0.58 0.00 2.82 17.2 566 138 WED 06Z 04-MAR 2.21 1.13 0.00 5.03 13.9 564 137 WED 12Z 04-MAR 0.48 0.12 0.00 5.50 12.9 560 136 WED 18Z 04-MAR 0.44 0.11 0.00 5.94 9.3 549 133 THU 00Z 05-MAR 0.09 0.01 0.00 6.03 7.6 537 133 THU 06Z 05-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 7.1 539 132 THU 12Z 05-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 2.4 544 133 THU 18Z 05-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 15.7 548 134 FRI 00Z 06-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 13.2 551 135 FRI 06Z 06-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 10.1 552 136 FRI 12Z 06-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 6.9 553 135 One thing is for sure though, I bet that TVA/Corps of Engineers is stepping up the flows from the area holding facilities in advance of this system next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 ECMWF backed off severe a touch, but seems to have shifted the highest QPF into the heart of TVA. Only good news is that high QPF isn't as high as shown 12 hours ago elsewhere. On the severe side, several EPS ensemble members are more like the previous runs. Low press into the Midwest and severe here. EC Op is frontal overrunning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Slow Euro or faster GFS ?Who will win? Euro dont show much of any flooding as it crashed the 300mb jet through the Valley while the GFS is into the OV.Could be the Euro doing its typical thing holding back energy to the west,who knows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Last time the Euro won this battle. It's less flooding and less severe. This case I'll punt my love of severe and pray for lower QPF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Another 4 inch week of rain would probably out us back into areal flooding. The ground is like a full sponge right now. I had a flat earlier and had the worst time changing it. Due to the nature of where I live there are sections of paved road and sections of gravel. My flat happened in gravel. It was like soup, my jack kept sinking into the ground. Soil is soaked at every level. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 With the rain yesterday and storms overnight into this morning, had just over 3 inches of rainfall in the last 30 hours. So off to a fast start for March. 22.67 inches for 2020. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Looks like the parade continues. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 https://www.weather.gov/ohx/10thAnniversaryMay2010Flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 There are a couple of islands in the Holston that we only see when TVA has the generators off. That summer with the drought(where G-burg burned) those islands had grass growing on them. LOL. They rarely had water over them as the feeder streams were so low - even generation schedules rarely flooded them. Past two years, I rarely see those islands at all now. If anything, I have seen some high water marks in those areas that I have never seen before, usually just after big thunderstorms. Might be an adventure today! We got hammered with heavy rain yesterday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 426 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Jun 30 2020 - 12Z Wed Jul 01 2020 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...2030 UTC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Discussion... Spaghetti plots from the GEFS and SREF point to the potential for rainfall amounts to exceed 3 inches from parts of Iowa into western Kentucky into eastern Tennessee...predominantly from ARW cores. The on-going Slight Risk was pretty well aligned in this corridor, so only changes were made to expand the western boundary based on antecedent conditions from the past week or so as well as anticipated rainfall amounts from today to the beginning of the Day 2 period. Also made some minor adjustments to the southern periphery based on latest model runs. These are fairly modest moves considering the run to run and model to model run consistency...but the numerical guidance tended to be in broad agreement with respect to the magnitude of instability and the amount of precipitable water available and the presence of the dynamics to help force and focus the activity. Not many changes elsewhere. Bann 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 ational Weather Service Nashville TN 156 PM CST Wed Feb 24 2021 .DISCUSSION... It`s a warm one out there this afternoon, but worry not; we`re nowhere near record values. The record high for today`s date is 81 set waaay back in 2017. Somebody will have to tilt the earth a little more for that to occur today. Other than the warmth, it`s a little breezy and clouds are starting to build in from the northwest. These are associated with the light rain that is expected this evening. Again, not much to get excited about as latest guidance would suggest some will get none and a few will only see a couple hundredths by sunrise. The big story with this forecast package continues to be the heavy rainfall expected this weekend. If there`s any good news, it comes in the form of confidence because models continue to zero in on a 4 to 6 inch solution from Friday until Monday morning. All of this is due to what looks to be a stationary boundary that sets up Friday night and hangs around through the weekend. Multiple shortwaves traverse the boundary as it sits over the mid-state and because of this, we very well could be looking at widespread flooding issues as early as noon on Sunday. PWs continue to be anomalously high for this time of the year (forecast soundings are showing record numbers Saturday night into Sunday) and an impending low- level jet will only work to enhance rainfall rates both Saturday and Sunday. Included in all of this, I`ve maintained a slight chance of thunder starting Friday night and while this will give some a rumble of thunder, any convective enhancement will only fuel rainfall efficiency. I wouldn`t be surprised if we`re talking Flood Watches at this time tomorrow for the weekend. What could end up being a bigger issue is the runoff. Grounds likely won`t absorb all of this rainfall, which will cause quick rises on area rivers and creeks. Forecast ensembles run by our River Forecast Centers are suggesting minor and *possibly* even moderate flooding on a few rivers in Middle TN by Monday. You will need to monitor this closely if you have interests near Middle TN rivers that flood regularly. All of this should come to an end on Monday, however, the Euro continues to show yet another system moving into the area on Tuesday. While the GFS isn`t currently showing this same system, if the Euro verifies, additional flooding could be a concern. For now, enjoy the beautiful day and check back with us over the next 24-48 hours for the latest information regarding this weekend`s heavy rainfall forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 12z models still look on track for 3-6 inches of rain over the next few days. I just had a bunch of water drainage issues fixed around my house a few weeks ago, so this should be a good test for all that work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 National Weather Service Nashville TN 157 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021 .DISCUSSION... A little cooler today, but all-in-all, not a half bad day. The sun is out and there`s a little breeze. Can`t complain. However, starting tonight? Let the complaining begin. Light to moderate rains will move into our southern zones around midnight and while they`ll likely garner less than a half inch of rain south of I-40 tonight and tomorrow morning, it`ll be a prelude to what`s coming over the weekend. Models continue to be surprisingly consistent regarding the rainfall potential this weekend. 3 to 5 inch totals have been maintained for several days now. I would argue that with the parameters as they are (anomalously high PW values and some convective potential, along with a stationary boundary across the mid-state), 4 to 6 inches is likely with a few spots getting more than that. Of note, models have shifted the axis of these heavier rains slightly further south, with a focus along and south of I-40 and on the Plateau. This is an expected development as models tend to shift northward or southward with time, but what it means is the exact locations that will get the highest amounts is still yet to be determined. That said, I do believe these numbers are legit. In coordination with surrounding WFOs, with flooding concerns not expected to begin until Sunday, we`ll hold off on issuing any Watch headlines at this time, but the likelihood of them being issued on this shift tomorrow is pretty high. Bottom line, look for periods of heavy rainfall, especially Friday night through Monday morning. Speaking of Friday night, there is some indication that we could have a couple of strong storms across the south. However, I`m not wholly sold on this idea as forecast soundings are completely saturated and CAPE is scarce at best, but there is plenty of shear with which to work and mid-level lapse rates aren`t shabby (6.5-7 deg C). I`ll mention it in the updated HWO this afternoon, but in the grand scheme of things, it`s not the biggest concern this weekend. So, overall flooding concerns? Check. Meager strong storms Friday evening? Check. What`s next? Rivers... Grounds are still relatively saturated after the snow/ice melt from last week. We`ll get them primed more tonight and tomorrow night and then the heavier stuff comes in Saturday night into Sunday. With this progression, I think rivers are going to start becoming a problem Sunday afternoon at the earliest as run-off starts occurring. River Forecast Centers are already indicating that several rivers in Middle TN will be an issue as late as Monday and that`ll likely run into the middle of next week. That said, if you have interests near rivers that are well-known flooders, you`ll want to begin taking necessary precautions soon. In the extended part of the forecast, the Euro continues to show two more systems next week (Tue and Thu) and the GFS is maintaining a dry solution next week. Obviously, this doesn`t lead to much confidence in the extended, but if we do end up with more rain on top of what we get this weekend, we could be looking at prolonged river issues. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 CFS cume cuts us a little slack in Lincoln County and overall, looking at 4-4 1/2" tops through Tuesday anywhere in TN, with central state the highest. Of course, it disagrees with the NAM (through Monday) about the area to be hit heaviest and extent. I dunno, I have just heard so much that has not come true regarding rains in forecasts this winter. This is like the fifth heavy rain warning for my area, and the other four petered out by quite a margin. In one, we got none! Still, I have been away from the site because I am designing my arc, just in case. How long is a cubit, again? Barometer in southern Lincoln County, 7 miles above Alabama, is a strong 30.02 inHg so far. Skies slightly overcast and 63 degrees with winds NNE at 3 mph. Rain forecast to start tonight at around 11 p.m. Looking all the way west to the West Memphis, Ark. Police Department's PWS, it is sunny there, 53, and barometer at 30.32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 NAM shifts the heavy rain south to Mississippi and Alabama, coming right up a bit into my AL border county. Gotta go. Counting out animals in twos.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 325 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 Day 1 Valid 12Z Fri Feb 26 2021 - 12Z Sat Feb 27 2021 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS... We will maintain a Marginal risk across portions of northern MS/AL/GA into central and eastern TN. Total rainfall amounts, from earlier Thur evening through today, should end up around 2-3" across portions of northern MA/AL/GA. Rainfall rates will never get all that high, given limited instability and quick cell motions. However elevated convective cells will continue to track across the region through the morning hours, with hourly totals locally exceeding 0.5". It is the persistence of these elevated heavy cells moving over the same area that will eventually result in some rainfall totals approaching 3". Overall it looks like rainfall should stay below the 1,3 and 6 hr FFG...thus this mainly just looks to be a soaking rain without much in the way of flood impacts. However, can not rule out some localized, mainly minor, flooding through the morning hours where brief training of the aforementioned elevated convective cells overlaps the increasingly saturated soil conditions. Thus will maintain the Marginal risk across this region. The focus for later tonight into early Saturday shifts northward into central and eastern TN. Model forecasts show a corridor of strong 850mb moisture transport pushing into this region...likely helping expand/intensify shower activity. This intensification of low level inflow also pushes PWs up above the climatological 90th percentile. The main question mark here will be instability. The current model consensus is only a couple hundred J/KG at most...which is likely not enough to get get rates over 0.5" in an hour. However moisture convergence will be quite strong, so it will not take much more instability to start getting rates towards 0.75" in an hour, and the orientation of the moisture convergence axis with the mean flow would support some training. Thus while the most likely solution would suggest rates too low for a flash flood risk, there is at least a small threat of the event overachieving and beginning to approach or locally exceed FFG...which is a bit lower over eastern TN compared to areas upstream to the southwest. We will carry a Marginal risk over this region to account for this threat later tonight into early Saturday. Chenard Day 2 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 27 2021 - 12Z Sun Feb 28 2021 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... Shortwaves rounding a mid-level trough axis situated across the central U.S. will interact with a residual surface boundary draped across the region. As a result, moderate to heavy rain will develop along and just north of the boundary which will eventually lift north as a warm front ahead of a developing system to the west. Anticipate this to occur during the latter half of the forecast period as the shortwave approaches Saturday evening coincident with the upper level jet strengthening helping to promote strong divergence aloft. With return flow increasing through the forecast period, precipitable water values will climb to around 1.25-1.5 inches aided by 35-45 knot low level southwesterly flow by 28/06Z. This is 2.5 standard deviations above the mean. With isentropic ascent along/north of the warm front with modest elevated instability (on average 500 J/kg MUCAPE), rain rates will likely exceed 0.75 inches per hour in some locations. In addition, training may occur based on the deep southwesterly mean wind aligning briefly with the propagation vector. This could result in 3 hourly rainfall totals in exceeding of 1.5 inches. While antecedent conditions may illustrate fairly dry conditions as of late, with recent snow melt, soil moisture is slightly above average. Therefore, the aforementioned rain rates may exceed flash flood guidance resulting runoff and thus scattered flash flooding in some locations. As a result, a Slight Risk was introduced along a narrow corridor where the heavy rain rates overlap with higher soil moisture. The inherited Marginal Risk was modified based on the latest model guidance and resultant WPC QPF. Pagano Day 3 Valid 12Z Sun Feb 28 2021 - 12Z Mon Mar 01 2021 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS A PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... A trough axis situated across the eastern half of the country will advance south and east through the forecast period. Mid-level shortwaves will continue to round the trough, moving atop a surface boundary/cold front which will act as the focus for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Deep South and TN Valley. Within the warm sector, strong moisture feed and return flow from the Gulf of Mexico will mean a surge in precipitation water values to over 1.5 inches which is around 2.5 standard deviations above the mean. This moisture transport will be aided by 35-45 knot low level southwesterly winds into a strengthening frontogenetic zone within the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak. Therefore, large scale lift and deep layer moisture will not be limited; though instability does appear modest. So, while key ingredients for heavy rainfall clearly exists, it is the training and back building of moderate to heavy rain along the aforementioned front that could lead to rain rates exceeding flash flood guidance over 1 to 3 hours in some locations. If this occurs over fairly saturated soils, especially given the additional rainfall on Day 1-2, then localized to scattered flash flooding may occur. This signal is also supported by ensemble probabilities and looks to occur Sunday afternoon through the overnight before the front eventually sinks south. Therefore, a broad Marginal Risk area was introduced with a focused Slight Risk area across the TN Valley where heavy rain/rates will overlap with wetter antecedent conditions. Given some lingering model uncertainty, anticipate there will be modifications made to the extent and position of the Slight Risk area. We will continue to monitor the latest model trends and modify accordingly. Pagano 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersnow888 Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyB Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Ha guys I have been looking at this website for over 15 years now. Decide to post. I love weather but don’t have near the knowledge you guys do. I loving reading your post and keeping up with your weather analysis. I work with the United States Geological Survey and I am a Hydrologist Technician I measure the flow and maintain the River gages in East TN. I am out of Knoxville office and live in Farragut. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Feeling that barometric pressure headache? Great day for it in south Lincoln County, 7 miles from Bama! My PWS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 2 hours ago, Wintersnow888 said: Well, in southern Lincoln County we have already had 0.86 inch since the wee hours of this morning when it started. Falling at 0.04 inch per hour currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 1 hour ago, BobbyB said: Ha guys I have been looking at this website for over 15 years now. Decide to post. I love weather but don’t have near the knowledge you guys do. I loving reading your post and keeping up with your weather analysis. I work with the United States Geological Survey and I am a Hydrologist Technician I measure the flow and maintain the River gages in East TN. I am out of Knoxville office and live in Farragut. Welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 2, 2021 Author Share Posted March 2, 2021 Hi guys Just some updates on my little obsession with lake Cumberland.... the lake was 709 feet last Saturday it now is almost 725 ft..in fact it has risen 12 feet in the past 48 hours or so as inflows increased from the previous days rains and storms trained over it Sunday..in fact at one point for a few hours it was rising at 1/2 foot or more per hour 5-7 inches fell over the lake and parts of the northern basin with 3-4 inches over the southern basin outflows were 10,400cfs , was up to 14,000cfs this morning The link to the actually inflows posted here in 2019 is dead but I calculated back then a .01 change in lake level each hour is about 7000 cfs The Lake rose .16 ft last hour so ( 16 * 7000) + (14K outflows) = so inflows are still an impressive 126,000 cfs or so The most they can outflow without flooding properties downstream and sandbagging first is 29,000 Cfs long story short the lake should hit 730 by this weekend which is about where it was in 2019 before the big rains The mistake they made back then was not to use the full 29,000 cfs outflow but instead used 15-22K the weeks leading up to the big event as a result they had to flow out 35,000 , then 45,000 the finally 60,000 at the last minute to prevent the Dam from overflowing luckily that spring was pretty dry when lake levels were elevated above 740 after the crest The stars have to align just right but one of the stars is..a high lake level going into an La nina spring The good news no rain for at least the next 7 days but I hope a dry forecast won't mean that they don't utilize the full 29,000 cfs outflow now the difference between 22,000 and 29,000 outflow is .about .a 1/4 of a foot (.01 per hour) over many days that can really add up and make a difference later as far as flood storage edit: it does look like they do plan to increase ourflows to 22,000 tomorrow and 27,000 thursday https://www.tva.com/environment/lake-levels/Wolf-Creek 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 National Weather Service Nashville TN 232 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 ...Measured Rainfall from Saturday, March 27 through Sunday March 28... Repeated rounds of very heavy rainfall caused widespread flooding issues in many areas across Middle Tennessee from Saturday morning, March 27th, through Sunday morning March 28th. Below are some of the highest measured rainfall totals during that time period. Amounts are in inches. Location Amount Source Franklin 8.65 CoCoRaHS Clarkrange 8.41 CoCoRaHS Brentwood 8.16 CoCoRaHS Elmwood 7.80 CoCoRaHS Fairview 7.83 CoCoRaHS Centerville 7.76 CoCoRaHS Christiana 7.28 CoCoRaHS Hermitage 7.16 CoCoRaHS Lebanon 7.05 CoCoRaHS Nashville Int Airport 7.01 ASOS Murfreesboro 7.00 CoCoRaHS Mount Juliet 6.88 CoCoRaHS Rock Vale 6.85 CoCoRaHS Belle Meade 6.73 CoCoRaHS Jamestown 6.59 CoCoRaHS Carthage 6.32 OHX COOP Cookeville 6.21 CoCoRaHS Lobelville 6.20 OHX COOP Spring Hill 5.98 CoCoRaHS Woodbury 5.88 CoCoRaHS Monterey 5.67 OHX COOP Pickett State Park 5.60 OHX COOP Cookeville 5.45 OHX COOP Allardt 5.39 OHX COOP Smithville 2 SE 5.30 OHX COOP Gallatin 5.22 CoCoRaHS Dickson 5.26 CoCoRaHS Livingston 5.12 CoCoRaHS Byrdstown 5.09 CoCoRaHS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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