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TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever


janetjanet998
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you can see these wet areas in old youtube videos too...and even when the lake is low..the concrete is stained...similar to if your ceiling ever leaked then dried

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#NashvilleCorps dispelling rumors today that Wolf Creek Dam in #Jamestown #Kentucky is in danger of imminent failure https://www.lrn.usace.army.mil/Media/News-Releases/Article/1762058/nr-19-006-corps-of-engineers-dispels-wolf-creek-dam-safety-rumors/ … #WaterManagement #DamSafety #USACE #LakeCumberland

NR 19-006: Corps of Engineers dispels Wolf Creek Dam safety rumors
 

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (Feb. 20, 2019) – The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Nashville District is dispelling rumors today that Wolf Creek Dam in Jamestown, Ky., is in danger of imminent failure.

A local radio station commentator put out false information this morning that Wolf Creek Dam could fail at any time and local residents downstream needed to formulate an evacuation plan. 

 “This is completely false,” said Kyle Hayworth, Dam Safety Program Manager with the Nashville District. “The dam is not failing. There have been no signs of distress with the project, and our dam safety staff has been and will continue to monitor all of the Cumberland River Basin dams throughout this high-water event.”

The Corps of Engineers is also aware of a social media video making its rounds that shows water leaking from the concrete face of the dam, and is addressing similar public fears, letting people know there is no reason for alarm.

“The water observed seeping out of the concrete is at a joint where drainage systems relieve internal pressures inside the dam,” said Brad Long, acting chief of the Nashville District’s Civil Design Branch.  “It is not a dam safety concern.  It will likely continue until the pool elevation returns to normal levels.”

The Nashville District is posting the very latest updates on its website and on Lake Cumberland’s Facebook page. The public is highly encouraged to seek out these resources for reliable information about water management, operations at the dam, and impacts around the lake.

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I didn't see the Euro map mentioned ,,,but 5 more inches from N MS to Jackson KY sounds like Lake Cumberland watershed

more info on the latest

With the additional rainfall expected this week, reaching elevation 750 is possible. The pool of record is 751.69 set in May 1984. In the history of Wolf Creek Dam, which spans back to 1950, elevation 745 has been exceeded twice – 747.12 in April 1962 and the pool of record.

 

“This winter has been an unprecedented event in that we continue to see rainfall events and have not had enough consecutive dry days to regain storage in the reservoir, nor have downstream conditions been conducive to increasing discharges from the dam,” said Robert Dillingham, hydraulic engineer in the Nashville District Water Management Section. “It remains a priority for the Nashville District to lower Lake Cumberland and regain the flood control storage in the reservoir as soon as downstream conditions allow.”

Dillingham said the Nashville District has made preparations downstream to allow releases from Lake Wolf Creek Dam, which will likely be larger than have been observed in several decades.

“Releases from the reservoir will be increased and we plan to lower the reservoir as soon as possible,” Dillingham added. “However, considering March and April are historically the highest precipitation months, it could take several months before Lake Cumberland returns to a seasonal elevation.”

https://milfeed.com/2019/02/20/corps-of-engineers-dispels-wolf-creek-dam-safety-rumors/

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20 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I'm not saying it looks great in any way, but having 5 - 6" inches fall over half the watershed instead of all the watershed has to be better in some small way.  Getting emails from the Euro people so I'm being a little more descriptive with their non-free maps for a bit. 

I think Corps and river forecast center uses the WPC rainfall maps....if you get training like happened this morning it throws it into chaos, any press releases or forecast released that day are based on the lower general WPC numbers released at 3am...that is why sometimes these people are behind the curve... for example ...look at the Cumberland river level forecast upstream of the lake...even though they were updated this afternoon...they are getting blown away....

Wolf creek Dam was repaired...by putting in a very deep cut off wall to stop seepage and leaking out of the earth part....but at least those leaks and seepage relieved pressure...so it will be interesting to see what happens since the pressure has to go somewhere else...

Lewisville Dam near Dallas( big trouble there a few years ago). I know they actually dig pressure release wells...but thats a different set up...(no bedrock there just dirt)

I have no idea what will happen if the entire watershed get 5 inches....it will be a nowcast thing to see where training sets up ..again most of the water shed is SE of the lake ..even a few miles north of the actual lake is out of the water shed

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, 1234snow said:

Camp Creek gust of 123mph was ruled erroneous after quality control. Gust was revised to 81mph.

Glad they did quality control and straightened that out. Are they saying 81mph was the peak gust today? Just wondering because it looked like there were legitimate gusts in the mid to upper 80's based on the plot. Not that it really matters at this point, just wondering if all recorded gusts were higher than actual winds.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
346 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST COVE MOUNTAIN           35.71N 83.59W
02/20/2019  M87 MPH          SEVIER             TN   MESONET



0630 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST CAMP CREEK              36.09N 82.77W
02/20/2019  M81 MPH          GREENE             TN   MESONET

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND GST REPORT
            FROM CAMP CREEK. MEASURED GUST AT THE
            NOAA/ATDD TOWER. EARLIER REPORTED GUST WAS
            ERRONEOUS. AFTER QUALITY CONTROL OF THE RAW
            DATA 81 MPH WAS CONFIRMED TO BE THE CORRECT
            WIND SPEED.

0659 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SE CEDAR CREEK        35.98N 82.84W
02/20/2019  M51 MPH          GREENE             TN   MESONET

            MESONET STATION PGVT1, NOLICHUCKY (4 SE
            CEDAR CREEK).

0327 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SE SIGNAL MOUNTAIN    35.12N 85.33W
02/20/2019  M49 MPH          HAMILTON           TN   MESONET

            MESONET STATION C9567, SIGNAL MOUNTAIN.

1000 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WSW ROAN MOUNTAIN     36.17N 82.15W
02/20/2019  M47 MPH          CARTER             TN   MESONET

            MESONET STATION D5724, 4 WSW ROAN MOUNTAIN.

0106 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SE POWELLS CROSSROADS 35.13N 85.43W
02/20/2019  M43 MPH          MARION             TN   MESONET

            MESONET STATION PCFT1, PRENTICE COOPER SF.

0905 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW UNICOI            36.20N 82.37W
02/20/2019  M43 MPH          UNICOI             TN   MESONET

            MESONET STATION UNIT1, WATAUGA (1 WNW
            UNICOI).

 

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following Oroville , DWR said that the peak inflows, or lake level rises,  into a lake occur a few hours after peak rainfall rates...then the rate of rise starts to decline without any more rain

 

but .22 feet per hour for a lake the size of Cumberland is crazy, especially at these high levels since it takes more volume of water to raise it per foot the higher it is since the lake is shaped like the letter V

the 6pm TVA data is flawed but the NWS river graph hints that may be even higher then a .22 rise between 5 and 6

2/20/2019 3 PM 742.18          25,420.  +.18

2/20/2019 4 PM  742.38            25,510  +.20

2/20/2019 5 PM  742.60.        25,470.  +.22

 

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6 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

following Oroville , DWR said that the peak inflows, or lake level rises,  into a lake occur a few hours after peak rainfall rates...then the rate of rise starts to decline without any more rain

 

but .22 feet per hour for a lake the size of Cumberland is crazy, especially at these high levels since it takes more volume of water to raise it per foot the higher it is since the lake is shaped like the letter V

the 6pm TVA data is flawed but the NWS river graph hints that may be even higher then a .22 rise between 5 and 6

2/20/2019 3 PM 742.18          25,420.  +.18

2/20/2019 4 PM  742.38            25,510  +.20

2/20/2019 5 PM  742.60.        25,470.  +.22

 

WOW...only 8 feet from the record....still climbing fast....hopefully the train will stay south and the last part north....the GFS is disturbing with 2-3+ inches

at 760 it spills over the top of the spillway...(again may not get there this time but later in the spring?) .this isn't Oroville where it spills on to a hillside and erodes it away but still.....there will be no flood control at that point..

if it is like any other situation there is a control plan that you do X, Y, and Z when A, B and C happens

the control plan likely says no more then X amount of outflow when there is so many inches of future predicted rains for downstream flood control...

that is likely why they dropped outflows to 25K from 29K and have delayed the increase to 35K they mentioned last Friday...

but every hour of these lower outflows means an extra hour of 5-10 or even 15K cfs(if they eventually increase to the record 40K)  that they will have to make up in the future

 

2/20/2019    6 PM    742.86       25,560.  +.26
2/20/2019    7 PM    743.07       25,560.  +.21
2/20/2019    8 PM    743.29       25,650.  +.22
2/20/2019    9 PM    743.49       25,740   +.2
2/20/2019    10 PM    743.73       25,660.  +.24

 

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Enhanced Severe risk now for weekend:

 

   In phase with the subtropical westerlies, a vigorous short wave
   impulse of mid-latitude Pacific origins is forecast to accelerate
   northeast of the southern Plains through the Great Lakes region
   during this period.  Strong cyclogenesis may already be underway by
   12Z Saturday near the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, and models
   continue to indicate that the rapid evolution of a broad and deep
   cyclone will proceed northeastward into the Great Lakes region by
   the end of the period.

   This likely will include the intensification of a cyclonic mid-level
   jet, including speeds in excess of 100 kt at 500 mb, across the
   southern Plains Red River Valley, through the middle Mississippi and
   Ohio Valleys.  Across the evolving warm sector, models indicate that
   south/southwesterly winds will strengthen to 50-70+ kt through the
   850-700 mb layer.

   Although the warm frontal zone probably will surge north of the Ohio
   River, and into/through the lower Great Lakes region by late
   Saturday evening, an initial position roughly along the Ohio River
   west-southwestward into the Ozark Plateau may provide the main focus
   for severe thunderstorm potential.  Early period convection,
   associated with weak elevated destabilization above the front, may
   inhibit, or at least slow, boundary-layer destabilization to the
   north, while leaving a remnant surface boundary.

   In association with the onset of stronger surface pressure falls,
   surface dew points are expected to increase through the lower/mid
   60s along and south of this boundary.  Coupled with strengthening
   large-scale ascent, this is expected to contribute at least weak
   boundary-layer destabilization supportive of an evolving organized
   mesoscale convective system.  CAPE on the order of 500+ J/kg appears
   possible.  Given the strength of the environmental wind fields (and
   shear) within the convective layer, the convective system may be
   accompanied by considerable potential for strong and damaging wind
   gusts.

   It appears that this may initiate over parts of central and eastern
   Arkansas by midday, before progressing east-northeastward through
   the lower Ohio Valley by Saturday evening.  A few tornadoes, some
   strong, are also possible, particularly with discrete supercells
   which may form near/just ahead of mainly the southern flank of the
   evolving system.

   More discrete storms, including supercells, may eventually develop
   as far south as the lower Mississippi Valley through portions of the
   southern Appalachians by late Saturday night.

 

day3otlk_0830.gif

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Day 2 WPC FFG:

Yet another impulse in the mid levels moving northward from the 
Gulf of Mexico will move across portions of Mississippi and 
Louisiana at the start of the Day 2 period...or Friday 
morning...and then take a more easterly track by the time is 
reaches the southern portion of the Appalachians.  Heaviest 
rainfall from the system looks in the Tennessee Valey and portions 
of adjacent states.  

Model QPF values were generally in the 2 to 3 inch range with a 
couple isolated amounts in excess of 4 inches. This is consistent 
with some instability developing in response to deepening 
moisture, low level flow on the order of 25 kts to 35 kts that 
accelerates to between 30 kts and 45 kts as well as weakly 
channeled mid level vorticity.  

The synoptic set up and the QPF amounts would not garner much 
attention if the conditions had been dry...but the area has had 
multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall over the past 5 days 
or so and Flash Flood Guidance values have been supressed 
accordingly.  

Maximum rainfall on Day 2 is expected to be in the Tennessee 
Valley and Southern States...but flash flooding is a concern in 
the southern portion of the Appalachians.  Rain will be falling in 
complex terrain and in areas of snow-cover...making the area more 
vulnerable to flash flooding despite the fact that heaviest 
rainfall stays to the west.

Based on coordination/collaboration with affected offices, have 
introduced a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall over portions of 
the Tennesse Valley on Day 2.  

98ewbg.gif

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Time for for some math ( in a hurry I made have made errors)

2/21/2019 4 AM CST    745.00       25,850  
2/21/2019 5 AM CST    745.18      25,940   +.18
2/21/2019 6 AM CST    745.36      25,940    +.18

the lake has risen an average of .18 feet per hour ending at 4am  and amazing 4.32 feet..the max rolling 24 period will be higher then that even

The corps has a major problem..Dale Hollow 655.25. just downstream,  has zero outflow right now...and rising fast too.. up almost 2.95 feet on 24 hours..it overflows at  661 feet..came within inches in a few times in the past..outflow of 5,000 keeps the lake steady it seems,,,but that is 5000 that takes away from Wolf Creek outflow

If the Cumberland lake averages .14 an hr rise  the next 24 hrs 4 am-4am from that 745 level

  .14 rise per hour ending 10z  Friday that's 748.36  no more rain

   .12 average rise the next 24 hours 751.24     mod-heavy rains widepread training?

  .16 the next 24 hours 755.08  record smashed  light rain to scattered heavy stuff with the line of storms

   .14 next 24 hours 758.04  no more rain but still rising fast from old rain  

    .04  per hour  the next 24 hours 759.4  no rain

    .02 per hour  the next 24 hours  759.88 no rain

    .01  per hour the next 24 hours  760.12  lake overspills here 10z thursday Feb 28th no rain 

now some days like  tommrow I may have over estimated rises, and some days underestimated ..but you can take away some one day but add it to the next set of numbets. etc etc

...the lake may still be rising at .08 inch per hour or so before the next batch of rain starts adding to it too

The above assumes the basin gets trained again..12z NAM (usually NW) keeps that just SE of the basin

 

2/21/2019    7 AM    745.50     25,940  +.14
2/21/2019    8 AM    745.65       25,940   +.15

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1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Looks like Cumberland Falls flow has increased dramatically  since I was there last week. 

Much higher and there won't be a waterfall anymore. If you've never been there it's hard to express how high the water would hav to be. 

all going into the lake of course...looks like the river at williamaburg just upstream from that has peaked for now..but a second peak similar to the one today is in the forecast plots...it will go even higher if training happens again

 

.lots of replies on facebook on that post...I think as time goes on more and more people may question if the lake will over flow...amd there will be hype and panic on social media

 

even it is does all that MAY happen is it will spill over a little and really have no more outflow(since by then inflow should be much lower then now) then it does now assuming the shut the gates and just let it go?  but it is going to be a battle all spring to get the flood control storage back in the upper Cumberland basin for any huge spring events

 

2/21/2019    9 AM    745.92       26,040   +.25
2/21/2019    10 AM    746.05     26,130    +.13

A slight uptick in outflow,(about 500 since this morning),this is what happened when it increased to 29K before

but  just a drop i the bucket to what is needed

edit: outflow increased again

2/21/2019    11 AM    746.20    +.15   28,420  

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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z FEB21
                6 HR    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL    SFC     2 M    1000    1000 
                 QPF     CVP     PCP     QPF     PCP     TMP     500     850 
                (IN)    (IN)    (IN)    (IN)    TYPES    (C)     THK     THK 
THU 12Z 21-FEB                                           4.4     555     132    
THU 18Z 21-FEB  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00            12.1     556     134    
FRI 00Z 22-FEB  0.04    0.00    0.00    0.04             8.8     557     134    
FRI 06Z 22-FEB  0.21    0.04    0.00    0.25             6.3     558     134    
FRI 12Z 22-FEB  0.56    0.12    0.00    0.82             6.3     558     134    
FRI 18Z 22-FEB  0.52    0.03    0.00    1.34             8.2     559     135    
SAT 00Z 23-FEB  0.21    0.03    0.00    1.54             8.0     559     136    
SAT 06Z 23-FEB  0.40    0.07    0.00    1.94            11.1     562     138    
SAT 12Z 23-FEB  0.91    0.47    0.00    2.85            14.5     563     138    
SAT 18Z 23-FEB  0.32    0.21    0.00    3.17            18.4     563     138    
SUN 00Z 24-FEB  0.11    0.04    0.00    3.28            17.3     565     138    
SUN 06Z 24-FEB  1.30    0.23    0.00    4.58            14.7     562     136   

 

 


 
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54 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

That picture is incredible...having been there once it's astounding to see it like that.

well I assumed the rate of  rise would level off by now and it looked like that was happening. as the rate fell to   .14 feet per hr this morning for a few hours..but the last few hours rate is increasing again( not on TVA site yet but will be soon)

It could be the crest wave off the main stem is hitting the lake and this is more then the decline in other inflows..

another wild card is Laruel River lake...this is a dammed up area for Flood control with no spillway in the watershed ..I have seen You-tube videos of it overflowing in the past but can't find any info on its  current status...did it just start to overflow? has it been all along? not yet?

I'm not sure if TVA is legally bind to keep the combined runoff flows from Wolf Creek, Dale Hollow and the 500 sq miles of local runoff  maxed 40.000 cfs..the articles I found just implies  that is procedure

but as I pointed out they are wasting time and water but not moving outflow up to 35,000 now...as they planned last friday

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z FEB21
                6 HR    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL    SFC     2 M    1000    1000 
                 QPF     CVP     PCP     QPF     PCP     TMP     500     850 
                (IN)    (IN)    (IN)    (IN)    TYPES    (C)     THK     THK 
THU 12Z 21-FEB                                           4.4     555     132    
THU 18Z 21-FEB  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00            12.1     556     134    
FRI 00Z 22-FEB  0.04    0.00    0.00    0.04             8.8     557     134    
FRI 06Z 22-FEB  0.21    0.04    0.00    0.25             6.3     558     134    
FRI 12Z 22-FEB  0.56    0.12    0.00    0.82             6.3     558     134    
FRI 18Z 22-FEB  0.52    0.03    0.00    1.34             8.2     559     135    
SAT 00Z 23-FEB  0.21    0.03    0.00    1.54             8.0     559     136    
SAT 06Z 23-FEB  0.40    0.07    0.00    1.94            11.1     562     138    
SAT 12Z 23-FEB  0.91    0.47    0.00    2.85            14.5     563     138    
SAT 18Z 23-FEB  0.32    0.21    0.00    3.17            18.4     563     138    
SUN 00Z 24-FEB  0.11    0.04    0.00    3.28            17.3     565     138    
SUN 06Z 24-FEB  1.30    0.23    0.00    4.58            14.7     562     136   

 

 



 

if  that train sets up the typical WSW to ENE fashion then I assume the cumberland watershed above(SE of the lake) the lake gets that too..or at least a toned down version

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18z NAM best case for Cumberland as it keep the train south(current obs and short range models agree) and north with the last part

 

 

18 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Friday Excessive Rainfall Outlook is upgraded to High for parts of North Alabama, southern Middle Tennessee, northeast Mississippi and other adjacent areas of Tenn.

Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH 
CENTRAL TN...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA...

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF 
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DUE TO 
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS PLUS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...

21z update...
After collaborating with WFOs JAN/MEG/OHX/HUN, a High Risk was 
assigned to portions of south central TN, northeast MS and far 
northern Alabama for Day 2. The main reason for the upgrade is the 
saturated antecedent conditions across these areas. In many spots, 
rivers are in flood, and the most recent National Water Model 
showed a large area of very high streamflows from previous 
activity. The aforementioned offices indicated that as little as 
1.00 inches of rainfall in three hours could have significant 
impacts. 

As surface low pressure tracks from the TX Panhandle into the Mid 
MS Valley, a 35/45 knot low level southwest flow transports 1.50 
inch precipitable water air (which is between two and three 
standard deviations above the mean) and 500 J/KG of MUCAPE along a 
frontal boundary moving north across the Lower MS and TN Valleys. 
The combination of moisture and instability could result in 
convection with hourly rainfall rates in excess of 1.00 (as seen 
in the 12z NAM CONUS Nest and the 12z WRF ARW) over the 
aforementioned areas. This would be sufficient to cause 
significant flooding issues where storms training (which is 
possible, given that the 850-300 mb mean wind becomes better 
aligned with the propagation vectors).

Hayes

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