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TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever


janetjanet998
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the seems to be a loosely organized convective system over MS. with he head near the MS/TN/AL state line .the warm front of this is what is training over central TN..up the cumberland basin..the "cold front" is pushing more east but still training later it looks like

lake cumberland rising rapidly now

1-2.5 inches fell along the OH river last night

the levels at Paducha and Cairo are spiking well above forecast points now

flash flood warnings for nashville

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Starting to become a little more concerned this afternoon and overnight for the central and southern valley. Risk of flash flooding from torrential rain and training is increasing on the hi res models. PWAT values are near 1.6+ coming up the valley now, with storms training over the area. Unlike the past couple waves involving a large rain shield, 1.5+ is being produced over a very short time.

12z 3k and HRRR

hires_pwat_nashville_10.png

hrrr_pwat_knoxville_12.png

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Starting to become a little more concerned this afternoon and overnight for the central and southern valley. Risk of flash flooding from torrential rain and training is increasing on the hi res models. PWAT values are near 1.6+ coming up the valley now, with storms training over the area. Unlike the past couple waves involving a large rain shield, 1.5+ is being produced over a very short time.

12z 3k and HRRR

hires_pwat_nashville_10.png.5cbd4a05cb402486514e9162de90cb16.png

hrrr_pwat_knoxville_12.thumb.png.97ba592abb74a6b2657df556c00d91cd.png

I ended just under 2" from yesterday IMBY, it won't take much to have road closures in my area from flooding, some areas are teetering on it already.

 

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Blue Ridge said:

image.png.77c5637e275927c460ccbd1705199187.png

For those playing along at home, 1 m/s = 2.237 mph. Alternatively, use this handy calculator.

Ignoring the high outliers, it looks like Camp Creek is consistently flirting with 40 m/s - nearly 90 mph. (FYI - if that 54 m/s observation is verified, that's ~121 mph.)

@Math/Met Thoughts?

I think you are correct to ignore the red data on that chart. It is unreliable.  The peak gust data (green) is probably accurate, so nearly 90mph.

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1 hour ago, 1234snow said:

 


All local tv Mets have used the 123mph measurement on social media this morning. emoji2960.png

 

That’s unfortunate. It may end up being correct, but I would be VERY surprised.  The near 90mph gusts seem legit. I have a full dataset for research purposes that goes back to 2008, and 123mph would be way above anything recorded there. I do think it’s possible for Camp Creek to gust over 100mph in mountain wave events. I’ve speculated that it was over 100mph in 2004, but there was no reliable data at that point.

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3 minutes ago, Math/Met said:

I don’t want to post too much about the mountain wave event, but here is why I think the red data plots are incorrect. If you expand out to a 720 hour plot, you can see errors show up several times. The peak (green) is usually very accurate.

 

metgraph1_720_hrs.jpg

Def looks like glitches data on those wind speed. The gust (green), should always be above or inline with wind speed (red)

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still no updated crest numbers for the  OH

Lake Cumberland hit hard, in fact you couldn't ask for a better train set up..most of the watershed is to the SE of the lake and  that is exactly the area that got hit with 2-3 inches over much of the basin

10 feet from the record

2/20/2019    9 AM    741.06      25,150
2/20/2019    10 AM    741.26        25,240
2/20/2019    11 AM    741.42     25,240
2/20/2019    noon    741.62     25,330

 

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SOMERSET 
Heavy rains the last few days have pushed Lake Cumberland to a level not seen in more than 20 years.

The elevation of the lake surface was 741.62 feet above sea level at noon on Wednesday, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

It was last at that level in 1998, when it hit 742.4 feet.

Continued rain could push the lake to 750 feet, according to the corps.

https://www.kentucky.com/news/state/kentucky/article226520435.html

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Thankfully Euro shows only one more (admittedly long-lived) system to endure after this one before we get a break. Unfortunately it also shows a general 5-6" with a dollop of 8" inches over central/ western TN and central KY in an axis running from around N. MS to Jackson KY. 

Knoxville has been fine to this point. The flooded areas around my house are just a little higher than before this started.


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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019
 
Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 22 2019 - 12Z Sat Feb 23 2019 

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE 
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...Southern U.S. to parts of the Southeast U.S. and southern 
Appalachians...
The frontal boundary that will provide focus for convection on Day 
2 will slowly lift northward on Day 3--in fact it is expected to 
be quasi-stationary until the surface low ejects into the southern 
Plains and lifts the front northward by the end of Day 3. Broad 
southwest to northeast flow aloft at the jet-stream level is 
expected along with channeled vorticity at the mid-levels. This is 
not the best set up for a focus on heavy rainfall and models still 
have spread where the heavy rainfall axis will be. For now, the 
QPF is placed just to the south and east of where the lower FFG 
values are. Because confidence is still low in this axis 
placement, continued the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall--and 
based on where the models begin to have more consensus and what 
happens over the next few days, this could warrant an upgrade in 
the future.
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Yeah, Beaver Creek seems like it is almost in a perpetual mini flood, even when it is relatively dry. Still, it's something to see it lapping up against the high voltage towers as you drive down Emory toward Clinton highway. 

I’m right here at Maynardville Hwy and Emory Rd. Beaver creek is way out of its banks but luckily there’s a large spill over area that holds a lot of water. I may go take some pics if I can get to it.


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1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Thankfully Euro shows only one more (admittedly long-lived) system to endure after this one before we get a break. Unfortunately it also shows a general 5-6" with a dollop of 8" inches over central/ western TN and central KY in an axis running from around N. MS to Jackson KY. 

it is going to a battle with lake Cumberland all spring....the lake this year, and early winter 2018,  has peaks and valleys similar to that stair step river crest post,,, but over a longer time span.. but each valley is higher when it starts raining again  ..it may peak a few days after it stops raining say early next week....fall 10-13 feet when it is dry for a week....but if it turns wet again it will start at a higher level maybe about where it is now perhaps?

better hope after a dry period after next week too..so it can get down closer to the full summer pool 723..only 9 feet from the record and only 19 feet from spilling over the top of the spillway....which may not be in play this time...but if we get a repeat of this in a couple weeks who knows...

record outflow is 40,000 ..holding at 25,000 ....down from 29,000 yesterday,,,,

 

so do they dump more water now thinking about the very long term later in the spring?  they really can't because of the next storm you mentioned

 

/20/2019    noon    741.62       25,330
2/20/2019    1 PM    741.80       25,330
2/20/2019    2 PM    742.00        25,420

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I'm all for any dry air we can get at this point. Every little bit will help. For my neck of the woods, very happy the intense rain seems to have evaporated on radar as it pushed off the plateau this afternoon. Even though that may not help areas downstream now, hopefully it helps some in the long run.  

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